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Corporate Financial Theory. Lecture 8. Corp Financial Theory. Topics Covered: * Capital Budgeting (investing) * Financing (borrowing) Today: Revisit Financing Debt Financing, Risk & Interest Rates. Debt & Interest Rates. Classical Theory of Interest Rates (Economics)

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corp financial theory
Corp Financial Theory

Topics Covered:

* Capital Budgeting (investing)

* Financing (borrowing)

Today:

Revisit Financing

Debt Financing, Risk & Interest Rates

debt interest rates
Debt & Interest Rates

Classical Theory of Interest Rates (Economics)

  • developed by Irving Fisher

Nominal Interest Rate = The rate you actually pay when you borrow money

Real Interest Rate = The theoretical rate you pay when you borrow money, as determined by supply and demand

r

Supply

Real r

Demand

$ Qty

federal reserve policy
Federal Reserve Policy

Conventional wisdom

  • The Federal Reserve sets interest rates. Whenever they raise or lower interest rates, the amount I pay on my credit card increases or decreases accordingly.

FALSE

the federal reserve and the colts
The Federal Reserve and The Colts

Value of one Colts season ticket

Value of two Colts season tickets

conclusions from example
Conclusions from Example
  • Too much cash = Inflation
  • Growth in cash = Growth in goods
  • Who controls Cash ?
      • The Federal Reserve
      • They DO NOT control interest rates
      • They INFLUENCE inflation
  • Why do we care?
    • Inflation determines YOUR Interest Rates
federal reserve monetary policy
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

Fed Rate

Banks Borrow

Loan money to us

the federal reserve dilemma
The Federal Reserve Dilemma

Monetary Policy

Fed Discount Rate

Inflation Rate

the fed interest rates
The Fed & Interest Rates

Myth: The Federal Reserve Board controls the interest rates WE PAY

Fact: The Fed controls the rate BANKS PAY

Fact: The rate we pay is set by the Banks

Fact: Banks rates are determined by the Fed Rate AND INFLATION

Mortgage rate = Fed Rate + expected inflation

fed funds vs mortgage rates
Fed Funds vs. Mortgage Rates

Rates

Fed Discount 30 Yr. Mortgage Inflation

Feb ‘06 5.75 % 6.24 % 2.50 %

Aug’08 2.25 % 6.67 % 5.83 %

July 2008 CPI = 9.60 %

Source: Bankrate.com 8/21/08 report, mortgage-x.com, & bls.gov July 2008 CPI report

fed funds vs mortgage rates1
Fed Funds vs. Mortgage Rates

1991

2006

Source: federal reserve board

fed funds vs mortgage rates2
Fed Funds vs. Mortgage Rates

1991

2006

Source: federal reserve board

the fed interest rates1
The Fed & Interest Rates

Q: How does this link to mortgage rates?

A: Mortgage rates are the combination of inflation and the Fed Funds rate.

Nominal rate = Real rate + expected inflation

Mortgage rate = Fed Funds + expected inflation

Real rate is a theoretical number… KIND OF

Nominal rate is what we pay

Inflation is the real danger

debt interest rates1
Debt & Interest Rates

Nominal r = Real r + expected inflation

Real r is theoretically somewhat stable

Inflation is a large variable

Q: Why do we care?

A: This theory allows us to understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates.

Q: So What?

A: The Term Structure tells us the cost of debt.

term structure of interest rates
Term Structure of Interest Rates

Maturity YTM

1 3.0 %

5 3.5%

10 3.8%

15 4.2%

30 4.5%

Listing of the hypothetical yields on U.S. Treasury Zero Coupon bonds

= The Pure Term Structure

term structure of interest rates1
Term Structure of Interest Rates

Maturity YTM

1 5.3 %

5 5.9 %

10 6.4 %

15 6.7 %

30 7.0 %

AAA Corp Bond Term Structure

term structure of interest rates2
Term Structure of Interest Rates
  • Expectations Theory
    • Term Structure and Capital Budgeting
      • CF should be discounted using term structure info
      • When rate incorporates all forward rates, use spot rate that equals project term
      • Take advantage of arbitrage
yield curve
Yield Curve
  • The graph of the term Structure of Interest Rates is called the “Yield Curve”

YTM (r)

Year

1 5 10 20 30

The Dynamic Yield Curve – Web Link

term structure
Term Structure

Spot Rate - The actual interest rate today (t=0)

Forward Rate - The interest rate, fixed today, on a loan made in the future at a fixed time.

Future Rate - The spot rate that is expected in the future

Yield To Maturity (YTM) - The IRR on an interest bearing instrument

YTM (r)

1981

1987

1976

Year

1 5 10 20 30

term structure1
Term Structure

YTM (r)

  • 1987 is the normal Term Structure
  • 1981 is abnormal & dangerous to the economy (because there is an incentive not to invest)

1981

1987

1976

Year

1 5 10 20 30

EG. 1981

Spot Rate (nominal) = Real r + Inflation

.15 = (-.05) + .20

term structure2
Term Structure

YTM (r)

1981

1987

1976

Year

1 5 10 20 30

EG. 1981

Spot Rate (nominal) = Real r + Inflation

.15 = (-.05) + .20

Forward Rate (nominal) = Real r + Inflation

.10 = .01 + .09

term structure3
Term Structure

What Determines the Shape of the TS?

1 - Unbiased Expectations Theory

2 - Liquidity Premium Theory

3 - Market Segmentation Hypothesis

Term Structure & Capital Budgeting

  • CF should be discounted using Term Structure info
  • Since the spot rate incorporates all forward rates, then you should use the spot rate that equals the term of your project.
  • If you believe in other theories take advantage of the arbitrage.
valuing a bond1
Valuing a Bond

Example

  • If today is October 1, 2012, what is the value of the following bond? An IBM Bond pays $115 every September 30 for 5 years. In September 2016 it pays an additional $1000 and retires the bond. The bond is rated AAA (WSJ AAA YTM is 7.5%)

Cash Flows

Sept 1213141516

115 115 115 115 1115

valuing a bond2
Valuing a Bond

Example continued

  • If today is October 1, 2012, what is the value of the following bond? An IBM Bond pays $115 every September 30 for 5 years. In September 2016 it pays an additional $1000 and retires the bond. The bond is rated AAA (WSJ AAA YTM is 7.5%)
valuing a bond3
Valuing a Bond

Example - Germany

  • In July 2012 you purchase 100 Euros of bonds in Germany which pay a 5% coupon every year. If the bond matures in 2018 and the YTM is 3.8%, what is the value of the bond?
valuing a bond4
Valuing a Bond

Another Example - Japan

  • In July 2012 you purchase 200 Yen of bonds in Japan which pay a 8% coupon every year. If the bond matures in 2017 and the YTM is 4.5%, what is the value of the bond?
valuing a bond5
Valuing a Bond

Example - USA

  • In July 2012 you purchase a 3 year US Government bond. The bond has an annual coupon rate of 4%, paid semi-annually. If investors demand a 2.48% return on 6 month investments, what is the price of the bond?
valuing a bond6
Valuing a Bond

Example continued - USA

  • Take the same 3 year US Government bond. The bond has an annual coupon rate of 4%, paid semi-annually. If investors demand a 1.50% return on 6 month investments, what is the new price of the bond?
yield to maturity
All interest bearing instruments are priced to fit the term structure

This is accomplished by modifying the asset price

The modified price creates a New Yield, which fits the Term Structure

The new yield is called the Yield To Maturity (YTM)

Yield To Maturity
yield to maturity1
Yield to Maturity

Example

  • A $1000 treasury bond expires in 5 years. It pays a coupon rate of 10.5%. If the market price of this bond is 107.88, what is the YTM?
yield to maturity2
Yield to Maturity

Example

  • A $1000 treasury bond expires in 5 years. It pays a coupon rate of 10.5%. If the market price of this bond is 107.88, what is the YTM?

C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5

-1078.80 105 105 105 105 1105

Calculate IRR = 8.50%

bond prices and yields
Bond Prices and Yields

Bond Price, %

Interest Rates, %

maturity and prices
Maturity and Prices

Bond Price, %

Interest Rates, %

debt risk
If you have two bonds, both providing a YTM of 8.5%, do you care which one you would prefer to buy?

What additional information do you need to make your decision?

Why do you need this information?

Duration is the tool that tells us the difference in risk between two different bonds.

Debt & Risk
debt risk1
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 1)

Given a 5 year, 10.5%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year

debt risk2
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 1)

Given a 5 year, 10.5%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year

1 105

2 105

3 105

4 105

5 1105

debt risk3
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 1)

Given a 5 year, 10.5%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

  • Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year
  • 1 105 96.77
  • 2 105 89.19
  • 3 105 82.21
  • 4 105 75.77
  • 5 1105 734.88
          • 1078.82
debt risk4
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 1)

Given a 5 year, 10.5%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

  • Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year
  • 1 105 96.77 .090
  • 2 105 89.19 .083
  • 3 105 82.21 .076
  • 4 105 75.77 .070
  • 5 1105 734.88 .681
          • 1078.82 1.00
debt risk5
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 1)

Given a 5 year, 10.5%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

  • Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year
  • 1 105 96.77 .090 0.090
  • 2 105 89.19 .083 0.164
  • 3 105 82.21 .076 0.227
  • 4 105 75.77 .070 0.279
  • 5 1105 734.88 .681 3.406
          • 1078.82 1.00 4.166 Duration
debt risk6
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 2)

Given a 5 year, 9.0%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year

debt risk7
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 2)

Given a 5 year, 9.0%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year

1 90

2 90

3 90

4 90

5 1090

debt risk8
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 2)

Given a 5 year, 9.0%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

  • Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year
  • 1 90 82.95
  • 2 90 76.45
  • 3 90 70.46
  • 4 90 64.94
  • 5 1090 724.90
          • 1019.70
debt risk9
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 2)

Given a 5 year, 9.0%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

  • Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year
  • 1 90 82.95 .081
  • 2 90 76.45 .075
  • 3 90 70.46 .069
  • 4 90 64.94 .064
  • 5 1090 724.90 .711
          • 1019.70 1.00
debt risk10
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 2)

Given a 5 year, 9.0%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

  • Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year
  • 1 90 82.95 .081 0.081
  • 2 90 76.45 .075 0.150
  • 3 90 70.46 .069 0.207
  • 4 90 64.94 .064 0.256
  • 5 1090 724.90 .711 3.555
          • 1019.70 1.00 4.249 Duration
debt risk11
Debt & Risk

Using the two previous examples, which bond whould you buy and why?

debt risk12
Debt & Risk

Example (Bond 3)

Given a 5 year, 9.0%, $1000 bond, with a 8.75% YTM, what is this bond’s duration?

  • Year CF [email protected] % of Total PV % x Year
  • 1 90 82.76 .082 0.082
  • 2 90 76.10 .075 0.150
  • 3 90 69.98 .069 0.207
  • 4 90 64.35 .064 0.256
  • 5 1090 716.61 .710 3.550
          • 1009.80 1.00 4.245 Duration
debt risk13
Debt & Risk

Q: Given Bond 1 and its YTM of 8.5%

Given Bond 3 and its YTM of 8.75%

Which bond should you buy and why?

A: It depends on your tolerance for risk.

valuing risky bonds
Valuing Risky Bonds

The risk of default changes the price of a bond and the YTM.

Example

We have a 5% 1 year bond. The bond is priced at par of $1000. But, there is a 20% chance the company will go into bankruptcy and only pay $500. What is the bond’s value?

A:

valuing risky bonds1
Valuing Risky Bonds

Example

We have a 5% 1 year bond. The bond is priced at par of $1000. But, there is a 20% chance the company will go into bankruptcy and only pay $500. What is the bond’s value?

A: Bond Value Prob

1,050 .80 = 840.00

500 .20 = 100.00 .

940.00 = expected CF

valuing risky bonds2
Valuing Risky Bonds

Example – Continued

Conversely - If on top of default risk, investors require an additional 3 percent market risk premium, the price and YTM is as follows:

key to bond ratings
Key to Bond Ratings

The highest quality bonds are rated AAA. Investment grade bonds have to be equivalent of Baa or higher. Bonds that don’t make this cut are called “high-yield” or “junk” bonds.

bond terminology
Bond Terminology
  • Read Chapter 24 for terminology

Examples

  • Collateralized Debt Obligations
  • Asset Backed Securities
  • Mortgage Backed Securities
  • Loan Guarantees (Puttable bonds)
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