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The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition” Ron Lesthaeghe. Gastner-Newman cartogram – proportional to total population size. Part 1: The formal demographic core. The 2 mechanisms of ageing.

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The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition” Ron Lesthaeghe

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The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition”

Ron Lesthaeghe

Gastner-Newman cartogram – proportional to total population size


Part 1 the formal demographic core

Part 1: The formal demographic core.

The 2 mechanisms of ageing.

Population growth (shrink) momentum.

Replacement migration.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Survivors per 100 000 births with varying life expectancies at birth :

From a “neutral” mortality decline to squaring off and pure aging effect


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

The stationary population view: from a neutral mortality decline to pure aging


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Stable population age structures with constant e0= 80 years, but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

TFR


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

The Negative Growth Momentum

In closed populations that have grown very old as a result of sustained

sub-replacement fertility, there will be a CONTINUED shrinkage for 50 years AFTER the restoration of exact replacement fertility


Aging bulge unavoidable

Aging bulge: unavoidable

After a long period of subreplacement fertility, there is an unavoidable aging bulge even if fertility returns to replacement level


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

The “Second Demographic Transition” view

  • Primary determinants of below replacement fertility:

  • Economic : Elevated standard of living & high consumption aspirations, need for double income, high opportunity cost  globalization world economy.

  • Cultural : Higher order needs accentuated (self-actualization, expressive values, individual autonomy, freedom of choice, open future,”postmaterialist” political aspirations …)(cf. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs)

  • TOGETHER  Second Demographic Transition (SDT)

  • Demographic characteristics of the SDT:

  • Postponement of marriage and parenthood, use of efficient contraception.

  • But : varying degrees of catching up of fertility at later ages (main source of difference between TFRs above and below 1.5)

  • Hence structural, not temporary, sub-replacement fertility, but at varying levels !

  • Rise of alternative living arrangements : longer periods living with parents, living alone, in cohabitation, procreation within cohabitation, post-marital cohabitation, LAT relations, etc.

  • Caveat : Intermediate phase between First DT and Second DT : Sexual revolution, but no transition to efficient contraception = recipe for high teenage fertility, shotgun marriage, young age divorce, early single motherhood, compromised life chances. US is typical example. One of the main reasons for US TFR being = 2.0.Also major danger for 1st generation immigrant youths from non-patriarchal societies.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

  • The Fertility Story

  • Careful with period measures !!

  • Postponement & Recuperation in Cohort Fertility

  • The Spanish Cohorts


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

a positive association between SDT and period total fertility : classic case of split correlation

All stronger recuperation countries

No or weak recup & late starters

1.50

Source of plot : Tomas Sobotka, 2008. Interpretation : Ron Lesthaeghe 2008.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

A strong SDT – fertility postponement link

SDT tail

SDT vanguard

Source: T. Sobotka 2008.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

TROUGH RECUP

PTFR(t+30) = A + B1*BaseCTFR(t=0) + B2*TROUGH(t) + B3*RECUP(t) + e

Trough = deficit in cumulated CASFR at age 30 compared to base

Recup = part of trough recuperated by age 40

Sample= all never communist European countries, baseline = cohort born 1940-44,

predicting PTFRs in period 1960-2005.

RESULT : baseCTFR only Rsq. = .505, baseCTFR + Trough Rsq= .673,

all 3 including Recup then Rsq= .793. Hence : RECUP IS ESSENTIAL.

ONLY countries dip below a TFR below 1.5 that have no or weak recuperation.

The “Bongaarts’ babies” have remained in his cupboard in a large number of countries, and will stay there for as long as there is no recuperation of fertility after age 30.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Cohort Fertility Postponement & Recuperation, Spain. (benchmarks coh40, coh55)


Sdt and tfrs inconsistent or double effect

SDT and TFRs : inconsistent or double effect ?

Social & Economic constraints: longer education, deregulation labour market etc

+

_

Postponement

Self-actualisation, keeping open future.

Overall fertility

SDT

Emancipation: gender

equity & better division of labour in family.

+

Recuperation

+

Organisation & policy aspects re independence of young adults and reduction opportunity costs (child care facilities, schooling, allowances & benefits), housing opportunities.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

FAC1_1: SDT – Postponement of Marriage, Parenthood and Overall Fertility, 1995-2001


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

FAC5_1: SDT – Non-conformist Family Formation (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

The Migration Issue

Results of a simulation excercise for the EU-12, 1995 to 2060


Population 65 in eu 15 in 3 scenarios

Population 65+ in EU 15 in 3 Scenarios

Scenario with

constant dependency ratio leads to

irrealistic growth and growth waves.

xxxxx

Note : UN assumes instantaneous drop immigrant fertility level to that of host country – too strong !

UN Population Divn.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

EU-12 Female Pop.

EU-12 aging if

e0=80 and TFR=1.64.

1985 =>2060

15

9

3

0

Migrant extra female population.

growth of immigrant

population EU-12 , stock

in 1985 + Descendants+

400 000 newcomers p.a., fertility drops from 4 to 1.64 in 2010

3

2

1


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Disaggregated projection for EU12 women, 1985-2060

Foreign stock of 1985 ( old survivors) and all foreign born after 1.1.85

Descendents of foreign mothers but born in EC12 after 1.1.85

EU12 nationals + descendants

SCENARIO: everyone e0=80; immigration=400.000 pa.;TFR nationals=1.64, TFR immigrants drops from 4.0 to 1.64 by 2010


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Source : D. Coleman


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Religious composition of the population, example of Spain

Age & Religion Composition, IIASA projections for Spain.

2009, 2019, 2029.

Source : Katja Sherbov, Dec 2010

Dark blue: active Catholic

Light blue : Non-active Cath.

Green: Islam-Sunni

Black: Islam-Sharia

Purple: Protestant + other

Red : Agnostic

(Read outward)


Long term sdt views

Long term SDT – views :

  • Sustained below-replacement fertility, caused by postponement and very little progression beyond 2 children. Rise childlessness among couples.

  • But very different TFR levels (say from 1.0 to 2.0), depending on degree of fertility recuperation at later ages (30+)

  • Negative population growth momentum set in motion : population becomes so old that decline will not stop when TFR reaches replacement again. Decline continues for another 50 years. Unavoidable major aging bulge too.

  • Need for replacement immigration, but mainly useful for maintaining absolute sizes of total population or of total active population. Less useful for reducing aging ( but not useless !)

  • Replacement migration = family migration or family reunification, not just temporary guest workers.

  • But once TFRs remain below 1.5 : no adequate solutions anymore.

  • Hence strong connection between SDT and international migration.

  • And also : SDT leads to multi-cultural, multi-ethnic and multi-lingual societies, which can have very different degrees or patterns of integration.

  • SDT = no convenient equilibrium !


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

  • Part 2. Various measures compared

  • BUT !!!

  • ONLY the DENOMINATOR CONSIDERED HERE, I.E. THE ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION

  • NOT THE NUMERATOR: DEPENDENT PENSIONERS.

  • 3 MEASURES COMPARED

  • Increase in fertility

  • Increase in Labour Force participation rates ( activity rates)

  • Increase in immigration


Macdonald kippen total labour force projection scenarios

MacDonald-Kippen Total Labour Force Projection Scenarios

  • Effect of TFRs returning to 1.80 children in next 15 yrs ( starting +- in 2000)

  • Effect of Rises in Labour Force Participation rates : Males : after age 30 rising to levels of 1970; Females : rising to Swedish levels at all ages ; change over next 30 yrs.

  • Effect of Increasing Net Migration to 0.5 pct of Total Pop. Size : D=200.000pa =>408.000, F & UK= 35.000 => 290.000, US= 760.000 => 1.369.000 pa.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

BAU= Business as usual

BAU


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Optimistic Combination

LF partic to high levels

MIGR = 0.5% pa

TFR to 1.8

BAU

ALL CURRENT TFR, MIGR, LF Particip.

CURRENT TFR, LF particip, NO MIGR


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

BAU


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

BAU


Homework for entire eu

Homework for entire EU

  • Favor gender symmetry in housework & earnings;

  • Maintain & increase female employment rates, but reduce opportunity costs (child-care !!!)

  • Do not reduce immigration, but try to manage it with respect to education and favorable adjustment characteristics.

  • Increase labor force participation rates, esp. after age 55.


Can the sdt spread to non western populations

Can the SDT spread to non-western populations ?

  • Overall answer : spread of SDT already occurring in other societies, but not necessarily according to a western sequence.

  • Lowest-Low fertility in Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, now also caused by massive postponement..

  • Sub-replacement fertility in Caribbean area (from Cuba to Trinidad ), in 2 Indian states and several Indian metropolitan areas, and even in several Muslim populations (Tunisia, Iran). Sub-replacement fertility widespread in most Chinese provinces.

  • Take off of premarital cohabitation documented in Japan and Taiwan. “Cohabitation boom” in Latin America.

  • In Japan, Korea, Singapore : postponement of parenthood equally linked toexpressive and individualistic value orientations at the micro level ( but not or less strongly to religion/secularism).

  • But : many of these societies have no experience with multi-culturalism (e.g Japan, S. Korea versus Singapore)


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Future of migration as seen through the SDT perspective.* Migration will continue to gain importance.* Many populations still have high TFRs, and large countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico …will still produce a positive population growth momentum for several decades to come.* Several African populations ( lower on AIDS) have very high fertility and are also exhibiting a major growth momentum.* No shortage of areas with high population pressure in the next half century, but older and more typical recruitment areas may have reduced capacities for sending migrants. * Hence : geographical/cultural shifts are likely with respect to areas of origin.* Caveat : migrations can also occur even if sending country has very low fertility ( e.g. Polish, Eastern European migration to EU).


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • No way to stop ageing via replacement migration alone : numbers completely irrealistic (unless “deportation”)

  • Replacement migration is only a partial measure which works best if immigrants are in families, sex-balanced, with fertility at or above replacement level. Single sex labour migration is not demographically sound.

  • Replacement migration leads to “multicultural” societies, but it takes several generations to get to a decisive shift with respect to “ancestral origins”. Question : are the third and fourth generations “integrated”?

  • Short term imperatives for D,NL,B : increase labour force participation after age 50 !

  • Overall : increase productivity via technological innovation and sound capital investment. And reduce public debt !!


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Health care expenditure


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Greenhouse gases emissions.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Child mortality


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

IS THERE ENOUGH TO GO AROUND ?

In millions, UN Medium projections, 2006 revisions.

Total Pop 2005 2050 Increase

Europe ( incl Eur. Russia) 731.1 664.1 - 67.0

Turkey 73.0 98.9 +25.9

Philippines 84.6 140.5 +55.9

Bangladesh 135.2 254.1 +118.9

India 1134.4 1658.3 +523.9

Pakistan 158.1 292.2 +134.1

Indian subcontinent +776.9

PR China 1313.0 1408.8 +95.8


Can the sdt spread to non western populations1

Can the SDT spread to non-western populations ?

  • Overall answer : spread of SDT already occurring in other societies, but not necessarily according to a western sequence.

  • Lowest-Low fertility in Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, now also caused by massive postponement..

  • Sub-replacement fertility in Caribbean area (from Cuba to Trinidad ), in 2 Indian states and several Indian metropolitan areas, and even in several Muslim populations (Tunisia, Iran). Sub-replacement fertility widespread in most Chinese provinces.

  • Take off of premarital cohabitation documented in Japan and Taiwan.

  • In Japan, Korea, Singapore : postponement of parenthood equally linked toexpressive and individualistic value orientations at the micro level ( but not or less strongly to religion/secularism).

  • But : many of these societies have no experience with multi-culturalism (e.g Japan, S. Korea versus Singapore)


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Postponement + stronger recuperation

Less postponement but quantum drop

Postponmt + weak or no recuperation


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