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The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition” Ron Lesthaeghe. Gastner-Newman cartogram – proportional to total population size. Part 1: The formal demographic core. The 2 mechanisms of ageing.

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The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition”

Ron Lesthaeghe

Gastner-Newman cartogram – proportional to total population size


Part 1 the formal demographic core
Part 1: Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition”The formal demographic core.

The 2 mechanisms of ageing.

Population growth (shrink) momentum.

Replacement migration.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Survivors per 100 000 births with varying life expectancies at birth :

From a “neutral” mortality decline to squaring off and pure aging effect



The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Stable population age structures with constant e0= 80 years, but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

TFR


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

The Negative Growth Momentum but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

In closed populations that have grown very old as a result of sustained

sub-replacement fertility, there will be a CONTINUED shrinkage for 50 years AFTER the restoration of exact replacement fertility


Aging bulge unavoidable
Aging bulge: unavoidable but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

After a long period of subreplacement fertility, there is an unavoidable aging bulge even if fertility returns to replacement level


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

The “Second Demographic Transition” view but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

  • Primary determinants of below replacement fertility:

  • Economic : Elevated standard of living & high consumption aspirations, need for double income, high opportunity cost  globalization world economy.

  • Cultural : Higher order needs accentuated (self-actualization, expressive values, individual autonomy, freedom of choice, open future,”postmaterialist” political aspirations …)(cf. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs)

  • TOGETHER  Second Demographic Transition (SDT)

  • Demographic characteristics of the SDT:

  • Postponement of marriage and parenthood, use of efficient contraception.

  • But : varying degrees of catching up of fertility at later ages (main source of difference between TFRs above and below 1.5)

  • Hence structural, not temporary, sub-replacement fertility, but at varying levels !

  • Rise of alternative living arrangements : longer periods living with parents, living alone, in cohabitation, procreation within cohabitation, post-marital cohabitation, LAT relations, etc.

  • Caveat : Intermediate phase between First DT and Second DT : Sexual revolution, but no transition to efficient contraception = recipe for high teenage fertility, shotgun marriage, young age divorce, early single motherhood, compromised life chances. US is typical example. One of the main reasons for US TFR being = 2.0.Also major danger for 1st generation immigrant youths from non-patriarchal societies.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

  • The Fertility Story but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

  • Careful with period measures !!

  • Postponement & Recuperation in Cohort Fertility

  • The Spanish Cohorts


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

a but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)positive association between SDT and period total fertility : classic case of split correlation

All stronger recuperation countries

No or weak recup & late starters

1.50

Source of plot : Tomas Sobotka, 2008. Interpretation : Ron Lesthaeghe 2008.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

A strong SDT – fertility postponement link but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

SDT tail

SDT vanguard

Source: T. Sobotka 2008.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

TROUGH RECUP but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

PTFR(t+30) = A + B1*BaseCTFR(t=0) + B2*TROUGH(t) + B3*RECUP(t) + e

Trough = deficit in cumulated CASFR at age 30 compared to base

Recup = part of trough recuperated by age 40

Sample= all never communist European countries, baseline = cohort born 1940-44,

predicting PTFRs in period 1960-2005.

RESULT : baseCTFR only Rsq. = .505, baseCTFR + Trough Rsq= .673,

all 3 including Recup then Rsq= .793. Hence : RECUP IS ESSENTIAL.

ONLY countries dip below a TFR below 1.5 that have no or weak recuperation.

The “Bongaarts’ babies” have remained in his cupboard in a large number of countries, and will stay there for as long as there is no recuperation of fertility after age 30.



Sdt and tfrs inconsistent or double effect
SDT and TFRs : inconsistent or double effect ? (benchmarks coh40, coh55)

Social & Economic constraints: longer education, deregulation labour market etc

+

_

Postponement

Self-actualisation, keeping open future.

Overall fertility

SDT

Emancipation: gender

equity & better division of labour in family.

+

Recuperation

+

Organisation & policy aspects re independence of young adults and reduction opportunity costs (child care facilities, schooling, allowances & benefits), housing opportunities.



The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

FAC5_1: SDT – Non-conformist Family Formation (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

The Migration Issue (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

Results of a simulation excercise for the EU-12, 1995 to 2060


Population 65 in eu 15 in 3 scenarios
Population 65+ in EU 15 in 3 Scenarios (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

Scenario with

constant dependency ratio leads to

irrealistic growth and growth waves.

xxxxx

Note : UN assumes instantaneous drop immigrant fertility level to that of host country – too strong !

UN Population Divn.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

EU-12 Female Pop. (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

EU-12 aging if

e0=80 and TFR=1.64.

1985 =>2060

15

9

3

0

Migrant extra female population.

growth of immigrant

population EU-12 , stock

in 1985 + Descendants+

400 000 newcomers p.a., fertility drops from 4 to 1.64 in 2010

3

2

1


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Disaggregated projection for EU12 women, 1985-2060 (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

Foreign stock of 1985 ( old survivors) and all foreign born after 1.1.85

Descendents of foreign mothers but born in EC12 after 1.1.85

EU12 nationals + descendants

SCENARIO: everyone e0=80; immigration=400.000 pa.;TFR nationals=1.64, TFR immigrants drops from 4.0 to 1.64 by 2010


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Source : D. Coleman (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Religious composition of the population, example of Spain (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

Age & Religion Composition, IIASA projections for Spain.

2009, 2019, 2029.

Source : Katja Sherbov, Dec 2010

Dark blue: active Catholic

Light blue : Non-active Cath.

Green: Islam-Sunni

Black: Islam-Sharia

Purple: Protestant + other

Red : Agnostic

(Read outward)


Long term sdt views
Long term SDT – views : (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

  • Sustained below-replacement fertility, caused by postponement and very little progression beyond 2 children. Rise childlessness among couples.

  • But very different TFR levels (say from 1.0 to 2.0), depending on degree of fertility recuperation at later ages (30+)

  • Negative population growth momentum set in motion : population becomes so old that decline will not stop when TFR reaches replacement again. Decline continues for another 50 years. Unavoidable major aging bulge too.

  • Need for replacement immigration, but mainly useful for maintaining absolute sizes of total population or of total active population. Less useful for reducing aging ( but not useless !)

  • Replacement migration = family migration or family reunification, not just temporary guest workers.

  • But once TFRs remain below 1.5 : no adequate solutions anymore.

  • Hence strong connection between SDT and international migration.

  • And also : SDT leads to multi-cultural, multi-ethnic and multi-lingual societies, which can have very different degrees or patterns of integration.

  • SDT = no convenient equilibrium !


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

  • Part 2. Various measures compared (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

  • BUT !!!

  • ONLY the DENOMINATOR CONSIDERED HERE, I.E. THE ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION

  • NOT THE NUMERATOR: DEPENDENT PENSIONERS.

  • 3 MEASURES COMPARED

  • Increase in fertility

  • Increase in Labour Force participation rates ( activity rates)

  • Increase in immigration


Macdonald kippen total labour force projection scenarios
MacDonald-Kippen (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002Total Labour Force Projection Scenarios

  • Effect of TFRs returning to 1.80 children in next 15 yrs ( starting +- in 2000)

  • Effect of Rises in Labour Force Participation rates : Males : after age 30 rising to levels of 1970; Females : rising to Swedish levels at all ages ; change over next 30 yrs.

  • Effect of Increasing Net Migration to 0.5 pct of Total Pop. Size : D=200.000pa =>408.000, F & UK= 35.000 => 290.000, US= 760.000 => 1.369.000 pa.


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

BAU= Business as usual (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

BAU


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Optimistic Combination (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

LF partic to high levels

MIGR = 0.5% pa

TFR to 1.8

BAU

ALL CURRENT TFR, MIGR, LF Particip.

CURRENT TFR, LF particip, NO MIGR


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

BAU (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

BAU (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002


Homework for entire eu
Homework for entire EU (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

  • Favor gender symmetry in housework & earnings;

  • Maintain & increase female employment rates, but reduce opportunity costs (child-care !!!)

  • Do not reduce immigration, but try to manage it with respect to education and favorable adjustment characteristics.

  • Increase labor force participation rates, esp. after age 55.


Can the sdt spread to non western populations
Can the SDT spread to non-western populations ? (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

  • Overall answer : spread of SDT already occurring in other societies, but not necessarily according to a western sequence.

  • Lowest-Low fertility in Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, now also caused by massive postponement..

  • Sub-replacement fertility in Caribbean area (from Cuba to Trinidad ), in 2 Indian states and several Indian metropolitan areas, and even in several Muslim populations (Tunisia, Iran). Sub-replacement fertility widespread in most Chinese provinces.

  • Take off of premarital cohabitation documented in Japan and Taiwan. “Cohabitation boom” in Latin America.

  • In Japan, Korea, Singapore : postponement of parenthood equally linked toexpressive and individualistic value orientations at the micro level ( but not or less strongly to religion/secularism).

  • But : many of these societies have no experience with multi-culturalism (e.g Japan, S. Korea versus Singapore)


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Future of (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002migration as seen through the SDT perspective.* Migration will continue to gain importance.* Many populations still have high TFRs, and large countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico …will still produce a positive population growth momentum for several decades to come.* Several African populations ( lower on AIDS) have very high fertility and are also exhibiting a major growth momentum.* No shortage of areas with high population pressure in the next half century, but older and more typical recruitment areas may have reduced capacities for sending migrants. * Hence : geographical/cultural shifts are likely with respect to areas of origin.* Caveat : migrations can also occur even if sending country has very low fertility ( e.g. Polish, Eastern European migration to EU).


Conclusions
Conclusions (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

  • No way to stop ageing via replacement migration alone : numbers completely irrealistic (unless “deportation”)

  • Replacement migration is only a partial measure which works best if immigrants are in families, sex-balanced, with fertility at or above replacement level. Single sex labour migration is not demographically sound.

  • Replacement migration leads to “multicultural” societies, but it takes several generations to get to a decisive shift with respect to “ancestral origins”. Question : are the third and fourth generations “integrated”?

  • Short term imperatives for D,NL,B : increase labour force participation after age 50 !

  • Overall : increase productivity via technological innovation and sound capital investment. And reduce public debt !!


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Health care expenditure (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Greenhouse gases emissions. (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Child mortality (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

IS THERE ENOUGH TO GO AROUND ? (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

In millions, UN Medium projections, 2006 revisions.

Total Pop 2005 2050 Increase

Europe ( incl Eur. Russia) 731.1 664.1 - 67.0

Turkey 73.0 98.9 +25.9

Philippines 84.6 140.5 +55.9

Bangladesh 135.2 254.1 +118.9

India 1134.4 1658.3 +523.9

Pakistan 158.1 292.2 +134.1

Indian subcontinent +776.9

PR China 1313.0 1408.8 +95.8


Can the sdt spread to non western populations1
Can the SDT spread to non-western populations ? (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

  • Overall answer : spread of SDT already occurring in other societies, but not necessarily according to a western sequence.

  • Lowest-Low fertility in Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, now also caused by massive postponement..

  • Sub-replacement fertility in Caribbean area (from Cuba to Trinidad ), in 2 Indian states and several Indian metropolitan areas, and even in several Muslim populations (Tunisia, Iran). Sub-replacement fertility widespread in most Chinese provinces.

  • Take off of premarital cohabitation documented in Japan and Taiwan.

  • In Japan, Korea, Singapore : postponement of parenthood equally linked toexpressive and individualistic value orientations at the micro level ( but not or less strongly to religion/secularism).

  • But : many of these societies have no experience with multi-culturalism (e.g Japan, S. Korea versus Singapore)


The eu in a global perspective and the demographic challenges associated with the second demographic transition ron le

Postponement + stronger recuperation (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

Less postponement but quantum drop

Postponmt + weak or no recuperation


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