The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition” Ron Lesthaeghe. Gastner-Newman cartogram – proportional to total population size. Part 1: The formal demographic core. The 2 mechanisms of ageing.
The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition”
Gastner-Newman cartogram – proportional to total population size
Part 1: The formal demographic core.
The 2 mechanisms of ageing.
Population growth (shrink) momentum.
Survivors per 100 000 births with varying life expectancies at birth :
From a “neutral” mortality decline to squaring off and pure aging effect
The stationary population view: from a neutral mortality decline to pure aging
Stable population age structures with constant e0= 80 years, but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)
The Negative Growth Momentum
In closed populations that have grown very old as a result of sustained
sub-replacement fertility, there will be a CONTINUED shrinkage for 50 years AFTER the restoration of exact replacement fertility
After a long period of subreplacement fertility, there is an unavoidable aging bulge even if fertility returns to replacement level
The “Second Demographic Transition” view
a positive association between SDT and period total fertility : classic case of split correlation
All stronger recuperation countries
No or weak recup & late starters
Source of plot : Tomas Sobotka, 2008. Interpretation : Ron Lesthaeghe 2008.
A strong SDT – fertility postponement link
Source: T. Sobotka 2008.
PTFR(t+30) = A + B1*BaseCTFR(t=0) + B2*TROUGH(t) + B3*RECUP(t) + e
Trough = deficit in cumulated CASFR at age 30 compared to base
Recup = part of trough recuperated by age 40
Sample= all never communist European countries, baseline = cohort born 1940-44,
predicting PTFRs in period 1960-2005.
RESULT : baseCTFR only Rsq. = .505, baseCTFR + Trough Rsq= .673,
all 3 including Recup then Rsq= .793. Hence : RECUP IS ESSENTIAL.
ONLY countries dip below a TFR below 1.5 that have no or weak recuperation.
The “Bongaarts’ babies” have remained in his cupboard in a large number of countries, and will stay there for as long as there is no recuperation of fertility after age 30.
Cohort Fertility Postponement & Recuperation, Spain. (benchmarks coh40, coh55)
Social & Economic constraints: longer education, deregulation labour market etc
Self-actualisation, keeping open future.
equity & better division of labour in family.
Organisation & policy aspects re independence of young adults and reduction opportunity costs (child care facilities, schooling, allowances & benefits), housing opportunities.
FAC1_1: SDT – Postponement of Marriage, Parenthood and Overall Fertility, 1995-2001
FAC5_1: SDT – Non-conformist Family Formation (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002
The Migration Issue
Results of a simulation excercise for the EU-12, 1995 to 2060
constant dependency ratio leads to
irrealistic growth and growth waves.
Note : UN assumes instantaneous drop immigrant fertility level to that of host country – too strong !
UN Population Divn.
EU-12 Female Pop.
EU-12 aging if
e0=80 and TFR=1.64.
Migrant extra female population.
growth of immigrant
population EU-12 , stock
in 1985 + Descendants+
400 000 newcomers p.a., fertility drops from 4 to 1.64 in 2010
Disaggregated projection for EU12 women, 1985-2060
Foreign stock of 1985 ( old survivors) and all foreign born after 1.1.85
Descendents of foreign mothers but born in EC12 after 1.1.85
EU12 nationals + descendants
SCENARIO: everyone e0=80; immigration=400.000 pa.;TFR nationals=1.64, TFR immigrants drops from 4.0 to 1.64 by 2010
Source : D. Coleman
Religious composition of the population, example of Spain
Age & Religion Composition, IIASA projections for Spain.
2009, 2019, 2029.
Source : Katja Sherbov, Dec 2010
Dark blue: active Catholic
Light blue : Non-active Cath.
Purple: Protestant + other
Red : Agnostic
BAU= Business as usual
LF partic to high levels
MIGR = 0.5% pa
TFR to 1.8
ALL CURRENT TFR, MIGR, LF Particip.
CURRENT TFR, LF particip, NO MIGR
Future of migration as seen through the SDT perspective.* Migration will continue to gain importance.* Many populations still have high TFRs, and large countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico …will still produce a positive population growth momentum for several decades to come.* Several African populations ( lower on AIDS) have very high fertility and are also exhibiting a major growth momentum.* No shortage of areas with high population pressure in the next half century, but older and more typical recruitment areas may have reduced capacities for sending migrants. * Hence : geographical/cultural shifts are likely with respect to areas of origin.* Caveat : migrations can also occur even if sending country has very low fertility ( e.g. Polish, Eastern European migration to EU).
Health care expenditure
Greenhouse gases emissions.
IS THERE ENOUGH TO GO AROUND ?
In millions, UN Medium projections, 2006 revisions.
Total Pop 2005 2050 Increase
Europe ( incl Eur. Russia) 731.1 664.1 - 67.0
Turkey 73.0 98.9 +25.9
Philippines 84.6 140.5 +55.9
Bangladesh 135.2 254.1 +118.9
India 1134.4 1658.3 +523.9
Pakistan 158.1 292.2 +134.1
Indian subcontinent +776.9
PR China 1313.0 1408.8 +95.8
Postponement + stronger recuperation
Less postponement but quantum drop
Postponmt + weak or no recuperation