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Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Training

CFIA-ACIA. Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Training. International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC). CFIA-ACIA. Risk. Risk = Likelihood X Impact. Risk. Pest Risk Assessment. Risk = Likelihood X Impact. What bad thing could happen? Pest categorization How likely is it to happen?

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Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Training

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  1. CFIA-ACIA Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Training International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) CFIA-ACIA

  2. Risk • Risk = Likelihood X Impact

  3. Risk Pest Risk Assessment • Risk = Likelihood X Impact • What bad thing could happen? • Pest categorization • How likely is it to happen? • Potential introduction & spread • How bad will it be? • Potential economic & environmental effects

  4. Risk • Risk = Likelihood X Impact • Likelihood • Potential • Probability • Quantitative or qualitative • Relative possibility of the event

  5. Risk • Risk = Likelihood X Impact • Economic or economic impacts • Effects • Consequences • Quantitative or qualitative • Relative magnitude of the event

  6. Qualitative pest risk assessments: Non-numerical terms Descriptive words Highly adaptable Most commonly used method Challenge to be consistent & use terms that are interpreted consistently by others “The pest is highly likely to be present on fresh fruit imported from ….” “The pest is expected to have negligible effects on market sales” “Outbreaks will be as frequent and serious as outbreaks of the native pest….” Qualitative vs. quantitative pest risk assessments

  7. Quantitative pest risk assessments: Numerical terms Measurable Assigns values to variables Programs for modelling likelihood or impacts (e.g., @Risk, Crystal Ball) Challenge to obtain data or defend selection of values for variables “The pest is expected to be present at detectable levels in 99 seed shipments out of 100” “There is an 85% chance of losses equalling or exceeding 1.2 million bushels per annum” “Outbreaks are projected to occur once in every 300 years 95 times out of 100” Qualitative vs. quantitative pest risk assessments

  8. Choosing the right methods • Each method has pros & cons • May use a combination of methods to address different parts of the assessment • Quantitative to assess likelihood along different pathways • Qualitative to assess impacts • Method selected depends on many variables • Urgency of the issue • Seriousness of the issue • Availability of resources & expertise • Availability of data • Needs of the NPPO • Sensitivity of the issue • Focus this week will be on qualitative pest risk assessment

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