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Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014

Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014. Jeannette Chapman, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Lisa Sturtevant, PhD, NHC Center for Housing Policy. Total Sales Washington MSA All Property Types.

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Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014

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  1. Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014 Jeannette Chapman, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Lisa Sturtevant, PhD, NHC Center for Housing Policy

  2. Total SalesWashington MSAAll Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  3. Total Sales Volume (millions of $)Washington MSAAll Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  4. Median Sale PriceWashington MSAAll Housing Types Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  5. Total SalesDistrict of ColumbiaAll Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  6. Total SalesSuburban MarylandAll Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  7. Total SalesNorthern VirginiaAll Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  8. Average Sale PriceWashington MSASingle-Family Detached Homes Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  9. Average Sale PriceWashington MSASingle-Family Attached Homes Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  10. Average Sale PriceWashington MSACondo Homes Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  11. Year-End Average New Condominium Prices Per SF Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  12. Active ListingsWashington MSAAll Housing Types Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  13. Stabilized Vacancy RatesClass A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  14. Stabilized Vacancy RatesClass A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  17. The Washington Economy

  18. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA, 2002-2013 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (000s) 2002 2005 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  19. Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA, 2002-2013 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (000s) 2002 2005 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  20. Annual Change in EmploymentWashington MSA

  21. Federal GovernmentWashington MSA, 2002-2013 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (000s) 2002 2005 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  22. Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change by Wage Category between 2008 to 2013 Sources: EMSI 2013.3 & GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  23. Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area

  24. Employment Change in the WMSAby Sub-State Area (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.

  25. Employment Change by Sub-state Area, 2012 – 2032 *Includes Jefferson, WV Note: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  26. Principal Sources of Job Growth in the Washington Area, 2012-2032 (000s) Job % of Total Median ChangeJob ChangeWage* Prof. & Sci. Svs/Mgt 401.8 46.9% $81,500 Admin & Waste Svs 139.0 16.2 29,500 Construction 95.0 11.1 36,700 Health Services 71.2 8.3 39,500 Leisure/Hospitality 45.9 5.4 18,300 Sub-Total 753.1 87.8% Overall Total 857.3 100.0 $48,900 * in 2011$s Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  27. Net New Jobs By Median Wage, 2012 – 2032 Includes Part Time Jobs Jobs In 000s Median Wage Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  28. Housing Demand by Sub-state Area, 2012 – 2032 *Includes Jefferson, WV. Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  29. Demand by Housing Type and Sub-state Region,2012-2032 *Includes Jefferson, WV Note: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  30. Comparison of Current Stock & Demand by Housing Type, Washington MSA Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  31. Demand for New Units by Price Washington MSA, 2012-2032 Owner HouseholdsRenter Households $600k+ 13% <$200k 16% Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  32. Demand for New Units by Price District of Columbia, 2012-2032 Owner HouseholdsRenter Households $600k+ 8% <$200k 14% Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  33. Demand for New Units by Price Suburban Maryland, 2012-2032 Owner HouseholdsRenter Households $600k+ 11% <$200k 22% Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  34. Demand for New Units by Price Northern Virginia, 2012-2032 Owner HouseholdsRenter Households <$200k 14% $600k+ 16% Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

  35. Housing Policy Issues • Local jurisdictions are planning for an insufficient amount of housing to accommodate future workers. • More housing is needed closer to jobs, in existing and growing regional employment centers. • There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable owner and renter homes in the region. • A lack of a sufficient supply of housing contributes to worsening traffic and quality of life and threatens our region’s economic vitality.

  36. Questions? Jeannette Chapman GMU Center for Regional Analysis jchapm13@gmu.edu, 703-993-2274 Lisa Sturtevant, PhD NHC Center for Housing Policy LSturtevant@nhc.org, 202-466-2121 ext. 234

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