1 / 42

Seminar 2

Seminar 2. Scoping - Interactions between Migration Patterns, Local Employment and Labour Markets in New Zealand. Seminar Outline. Presentation (45mins) Short Questionnaire (5 mins) Round Robin Commentary (20 mins) Discussion (20 ins). Presentation Plan.

gore
Download Presentation

Seminar 2

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Seminar 2 Scoping - Interactions between Migration Patterns, Local Employment and Labour Markets in New Zealand MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  2. Seminar Outline • Presentation (45mins) • Short Questionnaire (5 mins) • Round Robin Commentary (20 mins) • Discussion (20 ins) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  3. Presentation Plan • Migration and Labour Market Concepts • Some Regional Migration and Employment Change Statistics for 1986-91 and 1991-96 • Broad Research Issues • Directions for Future Work MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  4. What is Migration / Mobility • Migration is a special case of the mobility of people, families and / or households • Refers to the permanent or long term movement of place of permanent residence • Migration events (eg. International Arrival / Departure registrations) • Migration transitions (population census - changes in permanent residence between successive census periods) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  5. Motivation for Migration - Lifecycle stage / activity transitions • Finishing School • Education and Training • Household formation - relationships - having children • Seeking or Changing jobs • Housing tenure • Retirement etc. MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  6. Sources of Statistical Data • NZ Census of Population and Dwellings • residential address 5 years ago • years at current address • years in New Zealand • place of birth • NZ International Arrival and Departure Survey • Other specialised partial surveys (eg Longitudinal Survey of International Migrants) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  7. Defining the Labour Market • Theoretical Concept with spatial and other dimensions • Spatial - Geographical accessibility • Commuting locus in the short term • Migration locus in the long term • Job / occupational attributes • Skill / education or other requirements • Employee / person attributes • Skill / education or other characteristics MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  8. What are Functional Labour Market Areas (Main - Secondary) • Defined in terms of • Geographical accessibility (commuting - short term / migration - long term) • Skill / education or other barriers to participation • Skill / education or other characteristics of potential employees • Travel accessibility between residential and workplace locations • Cost • Time • Convenience • Differences between occupations - industries, demographic and-or socio-economic groups MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  9. Why Local Labour Market Areas? • Individuals make decisions about employment or migration in a local labour market context • Making inferences from higher to lower levels of spatial analysis is the individualistic fallacy of spatial geography • Conclusions reached on national or regional data can’t be inferred for spatial areas within them • Selection of spatial units has consequences MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  10. Explaining Regional Labour Market Characteristics (Morrison 1999) • Strong labour markets have high • reverse unemployment rates • wage rates • full-time employment rates • Labour market adjustment through migration • low where hidden unemployment is high • high where education and skill levels high MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  11. Types of Migration - Labour Market Interaction • Employment related migration to or from different areas • Migration effects on local economies and labour markets (positive and negative) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  12. Migration - Labour Market Effects Expected • Out migration rates will increase in response to reduction in local employment • In migration rates will increase in response to increases in local employment • Employment will increase or decrease in response to changes in the migration rate for selected population groups (eg retirees) • Different responses for different demographic groups on the basis of their labour market behaviour • Different responses for different localities on the basis of the nature of the local labour market MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  13. Some Recent NZ Regional Migration and Labour Market Patterns • Net Migration Rates • Migration Indicators • Migration Intensity • Migration Effectiveness • Dependence of Migration Rates on Employment Changes • International Migration Rates by Region MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  14. Why Look at Regions? • Interested in labour market related migration movements • Longer distance moves more likely to have a be motivated in part by employment considerations • Screening / filtering out intra-regional movements selects for these types of migration transitions MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  15. Net Migration Rates by Region 1986-91 and 1991-96(Net migration as a % of the starting population) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  16. Migration Intensities by Region(Gross Migration Flows over Population) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  17. Migration Effectiveness by Region(Net Migration Flows over Gross Migration Flows) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  18. Net Migration Rates and Changes in Full Time Employment by Region for 1986-91 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  19. Dependence of Net Migration Rates on Changes in FT Employment (as % Population) for 1986-91 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  20. Net Migration Rates and Changes in FT Employment by Region for 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  21. Dependence of Net Migration Rates on Changes in FT Employment (as % Population) for 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  22. Statistics for Regression of Net Migration Rate on Change in FT Employment (as % Population) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  23. Gross Out Migration Flows as a Percent of Population by Region for 1986-91 and 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  24. Gross Internal Out Migration Flows as a Percent of Population by Region for 1986-91 and 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  25. Gross International Out Migration Flows as a Percent of Population by Region for 1986-91 and 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  26. Research on Migration and Labour Markets • University programmes • Central Government Work • Research Priorities for LMPG? • Directions for Future Work MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  27. Academic Regional Migration / Labour Market Research • Waikato – New Demographic Directions Programme – Dick Bedford (Geography) & Ian Pool (Demography) • Auckland – Metropolis Project –Ward Friesen et al (Geography) • Massey – New Settlers Programme, Andrew Trlin (also Alan Bartley at Albany campus?) • Victoria University – Phil Morrison (Geography), Jacques Poot (Economics) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  28. Central Govt. Work on Local / Regional Migration / Labour Markets • Treasury • Economic Geography and Spatial Statistics Project • Regional Adjustment and Internal Migration Scoping Study • Statistics NZ - add-on survey on motivations for internal mobility? • Labour Market Policy Group (DoL) • Scoping Study – Interaction of Migration and Local Labour Markets • ? MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  29. Research Issues for LMPG? • What are NZ’s Functional Labour Market Areas? • Labour market effects on migration (eg. lbr mkt adjmt) • Migration effects on local economies / labour markets • Occupational and skill groups - monitoring and modelling recruitment, retention, demand and supply over time (effect of migration flows on labour supply) • Difference between Maori, Pacific Island, and total labour market - migration interactions and implications for policy and programmes • Migration patterns of beneficiaries • Characterising Community level labour market - migration interactions MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  30. Issues - Knowledge Base Standards 1. Establish Standards for Comparability between LMPG and other sub-national knowledge bases and improve application of technology • Why? • make connections / make linkages / think across portfolios • have comparable / compatible systems indicators at sub-national level • develop shareable applications of in-house departmental operational databases • What? • Spatial units • Demographic • Standardise other attributes (e.g. Labour / Employment) • Data formats & Technologies (eg. GIS software used?) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  31. Issues 2. Identify Functional Labour Market Areas • Why? • A pre-requisite to proper study of labour market - migration interactions • Regional data can’t be extrapolated to local level (individualistic fallacy) • Useful in understanding local development • How? • Short term - indicative boundaries - quick interim classification • More detailed longer term study of functional labour markets boundaries and their finer characteristics MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  32. Issues 3. Improve the knowledge base on NZ sub-national labour markets • Current Resources • Selected Aggregate AU, TLA and Regional data (Census 1986-96) • Regional HHLFS, QES, Unemployment Register (quarterly, annual 198?-2000) • Gaps • Detailed • A pre-requisite to proper study of labour market - migration interactions • Useful in understanding local development MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  33. Issues 4. Improving the Knowledge Base on Internal and External Migration History / Behaviour • Current Knowledge • Aggregate Initial Model by Region for 1986-91 and 1991-96 (Census) • National Picture by Quarter (International Arrival / Departure Survey) • Gaps • Extension to Ethnic Groups and Sub-regional areas (TLAs, Lbr Mkt Areas etc.) • Comparable data for External Regions (espec. Australia) • Better Age Breakdowns, Better estimates of Int Outmigrants, Extension to 1981-86 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  34. Issues 5. Role of Migration in Labour Market Adjustment • Exploratory Analysis at Regional Level with off the shelf aggregate data • Analysis of more refined data to test hypothesis on the influence of different factors on interactive response • Demographic groups (age, gender, ethnicity) • Labour force status • Industries / Occupations / Educational Level • Spatial levels • Implications for policy and programme development MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  35. Issues 6. Other Effects of Migration in Local Employment / Labour Markets • Exploratory Analysis at Regional Level with off the shelf aggregate data • Analysis of more refined data to test hypothesis on the influence of different factors on interactive response • Demographic groups (age, gender, ethnicity) • Labour force status • Industries / Occupations / Educational Level • Spatial levels • Implications for policy and programme development MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  36. Issues 7. Understanding effect of migration on changes in the labour market by occupation • Life cycles (flows from recruitment through education and training by cohort) • Migration Losses and Recruitment • Changing Demand and Supply for occupations by industry • Human capital model MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  37. Issues 8. Gaps Issues : Labour Force - Migration Interactions for Maori, Pacific Island vs others • Evidence for differences between Maori and Total migration - labour market interactions at local level (Morrison, 1999) • Explanatory power of various factors • Educational status • Occupations / industry concentrations • Local community characteristics (eg non-cash / informal economy) • Implications for Policies and Programmes MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  38. Issues 9. Relationship Between Benefit System, Labour Markets and Migration • Evidence that beneficiaries concentrate in certain areas • Extent to which this is migration driven? • Might be seen as pareto-optimal solution • Implications - eg. Effect on ability to participate in the formal and informal labour market, seasonal / part time / full time work - implications for families MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  39. Issues 10. Characterising Labour market - migration interactions for spatial communities • Meaning of community? • Spatial • Functional (eg churches for Pacific Island) • How to define spatial communities? • School catchment areas • History • Economic relationships (industries, travel to work patterns • Finer analysis of migration - labour markets in functional lbr mkt context MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  40. Directions for Future Work • Initial Scoping Study • Exploratory Analysis at Regional Level • Reconcile National and Regional Analysis – and Arrival Departure and Census based data • Extend the regional analysis • Maori • Age groups • Occupations / Industries / Educational Level • Exploratory study of local labour market areas using travel to work data MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  41. Directions for Future Work • Extend the work to Local Authorities, Functional Labour Market Areas and Communities • Need a better knowledge base for the study of migration and labour market interactions – unit record level analysis • Short term – custom tables, data sharing with other agencies? • Medium term – build a “Datalab” capability – for unit record level analysis of Census, Arrival/Departure, Vital Statistics MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  42. Stages of Knowledge Base Development • Exploratory analysis of available data (limitations of that data) • Development of appropriate system design concepts • Design and commissioning of selected customised series • Analysis of customised series • Design and evolution of datalab based “expert systems” • Integration of datalab based “expert systems” into policy and programme assessment and development MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

More Related