Federal Climate Change Debate Local Government Climate Summit Washington, DC April 8, 2008

1. Federal Climate Change DebateLocal Government Climate SummitWashington, DCApril 8, 2008 Manik Roy, Ph.D. Director of Congressional Affairs Pew Center on Global Climate Change www.pewclimate.org

2. Overview of Presentation • Overview • Who is the Pew Center? • Climate Science • Congressional climate debate through 2006 • State action • Business developments • Current federal climate policy debate • Crystal Ball

3. Pew Center on Global Climate Change • Founded in May 1998 • Independent, non-profit, non-partisan • Divided into five major program areas: • Scientific Studies/Analyses • Domestic and International Strategies • Outreach Activities • Business • States • Solutions • Communications

4. Business Environmental Leadership Council 44 BELC Companies

5. Climate Science

6. Climate Science • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a joint effort of the world's top climate scientists, reports unequivocally that: • • Global sea level rise has accelerated; • • Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average around the world; • • Average Arctic sea extent ice has shrunk by 20% at its summertime minimum since satellite observations began in 1978; and • • More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.

7. Climate Science • The IPCC reports with 90% certainty that: • • Most of the observed warming over the past half-century has been caused by human activities • • Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent

8. Climate Science • The IPCC reports with 80% certainty that: • • Water availability will decrease in the American west because of decreased mountain snowpack and earlier spring melt; • • Cities with a history of heat waves will experience more frequent and intense heat waves in the future, with potential adverse health effects; • • Coastal areas are especially vulnerable to the interacting effects of development, pollution, and climate change;

9. Climate Science • The IPCC reports with 80% certainty that (cont.): • • Forests will experience increased stress from insect pests, diseases, and increased wildfire; and • • Africa, Asia, the polar regions, and small islands are the most vulnerable regions either because of the degree of climate change projected (polar regions) or the vulnerability and lack of resilience of natural and human systems (Africa, Asia, and the small islands).

10. Climate Science • “Energy security and climate change are two of the great challenges of our time. The United States takes these challenges seriously. The world’s response will help shape the future of the global economy and the condition of our environment for future generations. ... We must lead the world to produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions, and we must do it in a way that does not undermine economic growth or prevent nations from delivering greater prosperity for their people.” • - President George W. Bush, Sept 28, 2007

11. Climate Science • “[Business] Roundtable CEOs agree that there is increasing evidence that the earth’s climate has been warming over the last century and that greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased in the atmosphere due to rising worldwide emissions of GHGs. We believe that steps to address global warming are prudent now even while the science continues to evolve. Our members have a range of views and preferences regarding the policy tools that should be used to address the warming threat. However, we agree on the need for collective actions that will lead to the reduction of GHG emissions on a global basis with the goal of slowing increases in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere and ultimately stabilizing them at levels that will address the risk of climate change.” • Testimony of John J. Castellani • President, Business Roundtable • before the U.S. Senate Committee • on Foreign Relations • January 24, 2008

12. Climate Science • Rep. Mike Doyle (D-PA): “[D]oes the Chamber [of Commerce] have a position on whether global warming is a problem? Do you think it's a problem that we should be doing something about, yes or no?” • Christopher Wenk, Senior Director, International Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce: “We absolutely do, Congressman.” • During testimony before the Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, March 5, 2008

13. Congressional Debate thru 2006 • US federal action to date: • 1992 • President George H.W. Bush supports UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • Senate quickly ratifies UNFCCC • High-water mark to date

14. Congressional Debate thru 2006 • 1992 UNFCCC • Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” • UNFCCC greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions voluntary • Bush (41), Clinton and Bush (43) launched and expanded voluntary programs • GHG emissions continued to rise steadily

15. Congressional Debate thru 2006 • 1993 - 2000 • Senate passes Byrd-Hagel resolution opposing Kyoto framework, 95 – 0 (1997) • Clinton supports 1997 Kyoto Protocol, but offers no legislation to meet Kyoto’s requirements • In Congress, a “No Man’s Land” between Kyoto and do-nothing

16. Congressional Debate thru 2006 • 2001 – 2006 • G.W. Bush opposes Kyoto, drops pledge to cap power plant CO2 (2001) • No Man’s Land eliminated • McCain-Lieberman GHG cap-and-trade bill (2003) • Senate passes nonbinding Bingaman resolution supporting mandatory climate action (2005)

17. State Action • State Climate Action: • Most federal enviro laws based on state and local models • RGGI: Northeastern states cap power plant CO2 • Gov. Schwarzenegger greenhouse gas targets (2005): • 1990 levels by 2020 • 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 • California law (2006): • 1990 levels by 2020

18. State Action • State Climate Action (cont.): • 36 states have or are developing climate action plans • 23 states are involved in regional initiatives to establish GHG cap and trade programs: • - Northeast (CT, DE, MA, ME, MD, NH, NJ, NY, RI, VT) • - West (AZ, CA, MT, NM, OR, UT, WA) • - Midwest (IL, IA, KS, MI, MN, WI) • - (FL and HI have GHG emission targets) • 17 states will adopt CA vehicle GHG standards. • 26 states plus DC have renewable energy requirements.

19. Business Developments • Growing sense in industry that US climate action is • now inevitable and possibly desirable: • Desire for regulatory certainty • State action • US public pressure • Right thing to do • EU action • Desire to influence post-2012 treaty negotiations • Democratic Congress • Make law under President Bush

20. Business Developments • U.S. Climate Action Partnership (USCAP) • (www.us-cap.org) • Companies: AIG, Alcoa, Alcan, Boston Scientific, BP America, Caterpillar, Chrysler, Conoco-Phillips, Deere, Dow, Duke, DuPont, Exelon, Ford, FPL, GE, GM, J&J, Marsh, NRG, PepsiCo, PG&E, PNM, Rio Tinto, Shell, Siemens, Xerox • NGOs: Pew Center, Environmental Defense, Natural Resources Defense Council, National Wildlife Federation, Nature Conservancy, World Resources Institute

21. Business Developments • USCAP (cont.) • CEO partnership • Calls for reductions of US GHG emissions • 100 – 105% of current levels within 5 years • 90 – 100% of current levels within 10 years • 70 – 90% of current levels within 15 years • Long term target: • 20 – 40% of current levels by 2050

22. Business Developments • USCAP (cont.) • Calls for rapid enactment of legislation, including: • Greenhouse gas cap-and-trade • Fed support for technology RDD & deployment (especially for carbon capture, sequestration) • Transportation: vehicles, fuels, VMT • Buildings: buildings, appliances, equipment, owner incentives

23. Current Federal Policy Debate • Many aspects of domestic climate policy • So far in 110th Congress (2007-2008) there have been 160 hearings held and 195 bills introduced. • The Energy Bill will have profound climate implications: • CAFE standards • Renewable fuel standard • Efficiency standards

24. Current Federal Policy Debate • Greenhouse gas cap and trade bills: • Government sets environmental goal; • Industry decides how to meet it • Cap placed on total US GHG emissions • Covered entities submit one emission allowance for every ton of GHG emitted • Covered entities and others may trade allowances on open market • Efficiencies and technological breakthroughs in one industry sector benefit entire economy

25. Current Federal Policy Debate

26. Current Federal Policy Debate • Six tasks for getting a law • Pass Senate Environment and Public Works • Pass full Senate (60 votes) • Pass House Energy and Commerce • Pass full House • House-Senate conference report that can pass each house • Signed by President

27. Current Federal Policy Debate • Senate Environment & Public Works Committee passed the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill by 11 – 8 on Dec 5 • Boxer (D-CA) Inhofe (R-OK) • Lieberman (ID-CT)Warner (R-VA) • Baucus (D-MT) Alexander (R-TN) • Cardin (D-MD) Barrasso (R-WY) • Carper (D-DE) Bond (R-MO) • Clinton (D-NY) Isakson (R-GA) • Klobuchar (D-MN) Craig (R-ID) • Lautenberg (D-NJ) Vitter (R-LA) • Sanders (I-VT) Voinovich (R-OH) • Whitehouse (D-RI)

28. Current Federal Policy Debate • Full Senate – 60 votes needed • 22 Senators have cosponsored the most aggressive climate bills (Sanders-Boxer & Kerry-Snowe) • 26 others have supported Lieberman-McCain or Lieberman-Warner • 10 others voted for 2005 Bingaman resolution calling for national mandatory program to reduce GHG emissions • 6 remaining Democrats • 5 - 10 other Republican prospects

29. Current Federal Policy Debate • House Energy and Commerce Committee • Chairman John Dingell (D-MI) • Subcommittee Chairman Rick Boucher (D-VA) • Reps Waxman (D-CA) and Markey (D-MA) • Small group of Republicans considered swing • Very smart productive committee • Publishing white papers on cap-and-trade design • Bill expected to be written in Spring 2008

30. Current Federal Policy Debate • House floor • A bill supported by Reps. Dingell, Boucher, Waxman, Markey, and a handful of Republican moderates in committee can very likely pass the House

31. Current Federal Policy Debate • Coincidentally, the Senate and the House Energy and Commerce Committee are now expected to engage in the same task in the same time frame: to write the centrist bill that can pass Congress.

32. Current Federal Policy Debate • President’s signature • President Bush might not sign bill today • Uncertain whether he would sign bill in September • Key question: Will President Bush veto a climate change bill supported by vulnerable Republicans just a few months before the election?

33. Crystal Ball • Usual path to enactment of federal policy: • Scientists identify issue • Enviros amplify scientists’ findings • Elected officials offer legislation • Time magazine puts issue on cover • States enact laws • Congress steps up activity • Events crystallize public sense of urgency • Smog alerts, Cuyahoga, Love Canal, Bhopal

34. Crystal Ball • Both Crystal Balls suggests • Enactment in 2008 plausible • If not by 2008, enactment by 2010 highly likely

35. For More Information • www.pewclimate.org