Foresight as a tool for developing common EU strategies
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Foresight as a tool for developing common EU strategies ( in IST ). Experiences from FISTERA “Foresight on IST in the European Research Area ” FISTERA/IT Star Meeting Prague, October 22, 2004 C. Pascu, R. Compañó, JC. Burgelman Institute for Prospective Tecnological Studies, Sevilla (IPTS)

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Fistera fistera jrc es

Foresight as a tool for developing common EU strategies (in IST)

Experiences from FISTERA

“Foresight on IST in the European Research Area”

FISTERA/IT Star Meeting

Prague, October 22, 2004

C. Pascu, R. Compañó, JC. Burgelman

Institute for Prospective Tecnological Studies, Sevilla (IPTS)

Joint Research Centre (www.jrc.cec.eu.int)

FISTERA http://fistera.jrc.es/


Setting the scene

Setting the scene

  • What´s the point? The Context

  • FISTERA Methodology and approach

  • Future: Looking beyond ICT


The context

The Context

  • EU Lisbon Strategy - The shift to the knowledge based society (“The Union has today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade: to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion”- European Council – Lisbon, March 2000) and eEurope Action Plans

  • In this context, ICTs have a central role to play:

    • Critical enabler of productivity growth and innovation

    • Important industry per se

    • Systemic technology (affects/enables social and institutional changes)


Why fistera

WHY FISTERA

  • Contribute to building of an European Research Area in IST research

  • Contribute to the open method of coordination by finding common grounds (vision, priorities).

  • Bring in societal concerns and societal vision into a hard core technical area (technological)


Aims 1

AIMS (1)

  • Bring together (systematic and extensive), actors and insights in national FS exercises on IST in order to provide input to the European Research Programme (FP7 IST)

  • Develop the common vision and approach to the IS in an enlarged Europe in 2010 and beyond.

  • Involve as much as possible key IST policy makers and players in the EU and at the national level.

  • Create a European forum for discussion

     Use foresight to get there


Aims 2

AIMS (2)

  • FISTERA Mission: Strengthening a network of researchers and institutions that fosters understanding key factors that will enable Europe to become one of the leading players in crucial ICT areas

  • What’s the point:

    • What are Europe’s strengths and weaknesses with respect to ICT as compared to global competitors?

    • What are the opportunities, threats and challenges for Europe?

    • What should be done to improve Europe’s position?


Who s who

WHO’s WHO?

  • A Thematic Network for prospective activities on Information Society Technologies under the European Research Programme (FP5)

  • Started in 2002 - Duration of 3 years

  • 17 Members

  • Coordinated by IPTS, part of the European Commission’s DG Joint Research Centre


Fistera methodology

FISTERA METHODOLOGY

  • Making use of FORESIGHT ¨TOOLBOX¨:

    • Traditional (e.g. Foresight studies),

    • “Adapted” (e.g online Delphi )

    • New (e.g. “Technology Trajectories” concept) Foresight tools

  • For assessing upcoming technological, social, economic and political issues


Fistera fistera jrc es

TODAY

TOMORROW


Fistera fistera jrc es

Example


Reviewing national foresight visions and swot

Reviewing national foresight visions and SWOT

  • Analyzed FS from 8 EU Member States (Austria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)

  • Aim: Understanding commonalities and differences in the visions on IST

  • Next phase: 3 post- bubble and post 9/11 on security, convergence and the “new economy”


Findings national fs

FINDINGS national FS

  • Different granularities from technology point of view

  • National visions in line with Lisbon objectives

  • EU not a central dimension (mainly present as part of the national SWOT analysis)

  • Visions in FS are often need oriented (areas of ‘’public interest``)

  • IST’s are tools to reach social, eco etc. objectives, not and end in itself


Important points from national fs

Important points from national FS

  • Forecasted Technologies are mainly extrapolations of what exists already.

  • Hype of the day as key trend for tomorrow (difficult to avoid “Zeitgeist” problem , i.e.¨being prisoner of spirit of the times¨ or ¨believing that what is ``hot`` today will remain so in the future¨)- e.g.-e-commerce (2000), security (now)

  • National FS do not cover the whole chain from technology assessment to societal impact

  • Parochial nature of FS (ignore happenings in other European countries) - The need for Europe-wide SWOT analysis and assessment of the relative position of each country and Europe´s at a global scale

  • Limited value for an EU approach (Sum of national FS # a European vision) - The need for a pan European permanent monitoring


Mapping national fs with technology trajectories

Printing

-

Storage

UK

Data capturing

-

Information visual display

D, UK

Processing

AT, F, HU

Human interfacing

CZ, F, D, ES, S, UK

Pin-pointing

-

Bandwidth

AT, D, HU, ES, SE, UK

Inforetrieval

SE

Communications

AT,CZ,D,F,HU,

ES,S,UK

Mapping national FS with Technology Trajectories

Indicator for consensus on promising ICT domains


Applications in the national fs

eCommerce

ES SE UK

Work

AT HU SE UK

Entertainment

CZ DE FR HU SE UK

Government SE

Agriculture

CZ HU

Health

AT,CZ,FR,DE,HU,SE,UK

Learning

AT DE HU SE UK

Security

CZ

Transport

AT,CZ,HU,SE,UK

Domotics AT

Applications in the National FS

Individuals

Business

Public


Fistera technology trajectories concept

FISTERA TECHNOLOGY TRAJECTORIES Concept

  • Overview of potential technology evolution, challenges laying ahead, and potential areas whereresearch investment may be more productive, given the local situation

  • Investigating clusters of technologies for their functionalities (i.e. what they offer) and then determining applications offered in different environments (e.g. at home)

  • Top-down analysis and Bottom-up analysis

  • Currently comprising 87 technologies

  • An "early detection system" - monitoring possible technology disruptions, highlighting technology areas to keep an eye on

    Online tool: 4-layer Model – state-of-the-art and perspectives for 2010 and 2020:

    Http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com


The four layers model

  • What is the social implication?

  • What are the concerns?

  • Is life quality improving?

  • Who is benefiting?

The FOUR LAYERS MODEL

  • Whose business is it?

  • Where the research investment

    would be more effective?

  • What is needed

  • Where should research be focused?

  • Showing tech. alternatives

  • Evolution over time

  • Related to Information Society

  • Basic vs Aggregate Technology

  • Is there value in investing?


Technologies in the national fs

Printing

-

Storage

UK

Data capturing

-

Information visual display

D, UK

Processing

AT, F, HU

Human interfacing

CZ, F, D, ES, S, UK

Pin-pointing

-

Bandwidth

AT, D, HU, ES, SE, UK

Inforetrieval

SE

Communications

AT,CZ,D,F,HU,

ES,S,UK

Technologies in the National FS


Fistera key factors

- Ageing & eHealth- Cultural Pluralism- Community learning - Ethics- Digital Divide ….

  • Mobility - evolution of trade

  • & economic affairs

ECONOMICAL

SOCIAL

POLITICAL

TECHNOLOGICAL

  • Miniaturisation

  • - systems integration

  • - Reliability & robustness

  • - content ownership vs free availability …

  • Governmental

  • efficiency

  • Security

FISTERA:Key factors


Fistera fistera jrc es

Spreading the word

  • Cross-European debate for building an European Research Area

  • Face-to-face vs Virtual approach

National ¨Roadshow¨ workshops (research community from FISTERA Member´countries)

¨Targeted¨ meetings: Commission’s staff, R&D Nat Directors, Politicians (European Parliament’s EPTA),Industry

Thematic meetings: Enlargement countries, Human Resources in IST, Trends, Challenge and Drivers

Others: IST Days, DGINFSO meetings, ISTAG, academic & policy conferences, etc

Email alert: 600 people

Web: ~300.000 hits

¨Thematic” Online Delphis (e.g. IST Applications)

Technology Trajectories: Online !!


Future looking beyond ict

FutureLooking beyond ICT

  • Technology trends and Visions towards KS

    Convergence with bio, nano, cogno technologies

  • How Europe looks at iself ? Post-bubble, post-9/11 Foresights


Fistera fistera jrc es

FISTERA and network effects

  • All public available knowledgehttp://fistera.jrc.es

  • Use the site to comment and enrich debate

  • Contact

    R. Compañó

    [email protected]

    C. Pascu

    [email protected]

    J.C. Burgelman

    jean-claude.burgelman@ cec.eu.int


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