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ZAMBIA COUNTRY REPORT. Republic of Zambia Central Statistical Office. BASIC ECONOMIC STATISTICS WORKSHOP 23-26 JULY, 2007 PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA SHEBO NALISHEBO. Presentation Outline. Overview of Zambia Organisational structure of the CSO Economic Statistics Division National Accounts

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ZAMBIA COUNTRY REPORT

Republic of Zambia

Central Statistical Office

BASIC ECONOMIC STATISTICS WORKSHOP

23-26 JULY, 2007

PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA

SHEBO NALISHEBO


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Presentation Outline

  • Overview of Zambia

  • Organisational structure of the CSO

  • Economic Statistics Division

    • National Accounts

    • Industrial Production

    • External Trade and Balance of Payments

    • Living Conditions Monitoring

    • Prices and Consumption Studies

    • Public Finance

  • Sources & Estimation Methods

  • Dissemination of economic statistics

  • Short comings

  • Constraints



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Zambia - Demographics

  • Surrounded by 8 other countries

  • Total area: 752, 000 km2

  • Populated by 12 million people

  • Copper remains the main export (80 %)

  • Per capita GDP: US$910 (2006 prelim.)

  • Economic growth rate: 5.9 % (2006 prelim.)

  • Inflation rate: 11.1 % (June 2007)


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Organizational Structure of the CSO

  • The Central Statistical Office is one of the TEN Departments under the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP)

  • Mandated under the Census and Statistics Act of the Laws of Zambia to produce official national statistics

  • These include:

    • Population and housing census (conducted every ten years)

    • Economic Census (to be carried out every five years)

    • Census of Agriculture

    • Other periodical national social and economic surveys

  • The CSO consists of the Head Office in Lusaka and provincial offices in each of the nine provinces of Zambia

  • Headed by a Director and is divided into four divisions each headed by a Deputy Director




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National Accounts Branch

  • Responsible for the compilation of GDP on an annual basis

  • Co-ordinate the conducting of the Economic Census (on-going)

  • Carry out establishment-based income accounting surveys (National Income Inquiry)


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External Trade and BoP

  • Responsible for the processing and analysis, compilation of merchandize trade statistics with the rest of the world. This is done on a monthly basis with a one-month time lag.

  • Also supplies trade data to National accounts branch for purposes of production of expenditure GDP.

  • Balance of Payments statistics, however, are compiled at the Central Bank [‘Gentleman's’ Agreement]


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Industrial Production Branch

  • Responsible for the compilation of the quarterly Index of Industrial Production

    • Covers mining, manufacturing and electricity

  • Census of Industrial Production


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Prices Branch

  • Responsible for the compilation of the Consumer Price Index used to calculate inflation

  • Compiled on a monthly basis

  • Most timely-produced economic indicator: disseminated every last Thursday of the reference month

  • Provides indices for use in the deflation of GDP


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Public Finance Branch

  • Responsible for the compilation of Government and quasi-government Financial Statistics

  • Functional and economic classification of general government expenditure

  • Secondary collection and compilation of monetary statistics


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Living Conditions Monitoring Branch

  • Conducts the Living Conditions monitoring survey every other year

  • Used for computation of poverty estimates and poverty maps

  • Updating of CPI weights

  • Direct measurement of Household Final Consumption Expenditure


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Data Sources

  • National Accounts Branch

  • The primary sources of data for the compilation of GDP include:

    • Census of Agriculture

    • Census of industrial production covering mining, manufacturing and electricity

    • Census of Construction

    • National Income Inquiry covering the services sector

    • The Government accounts for community, social and personal services and government final consumption expenditure.

    • The 1993/1994 Household Budget Survey (HBS) for estimating household final consumption expenditure and the informal sector.

    • Imports and exports from the External Trade statistics and transactions with the rest of the world from Balance of Payments statistics.


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Data Sources

  • Secondary sources for GDP compilation: use of volume and price indicators

    • Annual crop forecast and post-harvest surveys

    • Quarterly index of industrial production

    • Consumer Price Index

    • Turnover from VAT register


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Data Sources

  • External Trade statistics

    • Main data source is customs data from the customs and exercise division.

    • Non-Customs sources (e.g. electricity and crude oil)

    • Monthly survey of major importers and exporters for data verification

  • Industrial Production statistics

    • Data obtained directly from a sample of establishments in 4 provinces (for the quarterly Index of Industrial Production)


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Data Sources

  • Prices statistics

    • About 15, 000 price quotations obtained on a monthly basis from nearly 2, 000 retail outlets throughout the country

  • Public Finance statistics

    • Data obtained from annual financial reports on income and expenditure of government, and quasi-government institutions


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Data Sources

  • Living Conditions Statistics

    • Data obtained directly from household surveys

    • Indicator monitoring survey conducted every two years

    • Longitudinal survey with HBS module to be conducted every five years


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Compilation methods

  • Economic statistics compilation based on internationally recognized methodologies

    • 1968 & 1993 SNA, BPM5, 2001 GFS Manual, etc.

  • Classifications used include:

    • ISIC Rev. 3, HS, SITC Rev. 3, COFOG, COICOP

    • Plans are underway to implement ISIC Rev. 4 for the upcoming Economic Census, COICOP for CPI


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Dissemination

  • The Monthly bulletin, released every last Thursday of the month through a press briefing

  • Monthly CPI press releases

  • Website: www.zamstats.gov.zm

  • Publications: External Trade, National Accounts

  • Soft copies by request


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Users

  • Users are invited to dissemination for a

  • User-producer workshops held before surveys are carried out to take their concerns on board

  • Mixed reactions

  • Some users are very supportive

  • Statistics may still be misunderstood, so some express dissatisfaction


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Shortcomings in NA compilation

  • Remote benchmark year (1994)

  • Outdated weights for deflators

  • No appropriate volume indicators for trade, business and personal services

  • There are a lot of small-scale operators in these industries

  • Coverage of informal sector was only at the benchmark year

  • No current price estimates for private consumption; derived residually


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Shortcomings

  • For External Trade:

    • Quantity data from customs sources poor

    • No Trade indices produced (e.g. unit value indices, unit price indices) due to poor quantity/price data.

  • Industrial Production

    • Census of Industrial Production not conducted regularly

    • Outdated weights

  • Public Finance

    • Poor coverage of local government sector


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Shortcomings

  • Prices:

    • Outdated weights (1994)


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Industry

  • The classification used for industries is the ISIC rev. 2

  • Rev. 3 was implemented when the 2003 enterprise surveys were carried out [yet to be incorporated]

  • For the Economic Census, rev. 4 will be used


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Industry

  • GDP is reported using three major sectors:

    • Primary

    • Secondary, and

    • Tertiary

  • Under the primary sector:

    • Agriculture, forestry and fishing

    • Mining and quarrying


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Industry

  • Under the secondary sector

    • Manufacturing

    • Construction

  • Under the tertiary sector

    • Trade

    • Hotels, bars and restaurants

    • Transport and communications

    • Financial intermediation and insurance

    • Real estate and business services

    • Community, social and personal services


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Agriculture

  • Primary data source: Census of Agriculture

  • Secondary data source: Annual Crop forecasting survey & Post harvest survey

  • Agriculture season: Oct 1 – 30th Sep

  • Output recorded in the year of harvest

  • Broken down into crops, livestock and vegetables & fruits

  • Weights: Crops (60%); livestock (30%); fruits & vegetables (10%)


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Forestry & Fishing

  • Data on forestry obtained from the Department of Forestry

  • Number of logs in cubic metres

  • Alternate sources: Forestry establishments

  • Data on fish catches in metric tonnes obtained from 11 major fishing areas across the country


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Mining and quarrying

  • Industry broken down into metal mining and Other mining and quarrying

  • Metal mining consists of copper and cobalt production

  • Other mining includes coal mining and stone quarrying

  • Mineral export index used as deflator


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Manufacturing

  • Data obtained from Census of Industrial Production and the quarterly Index of Industrial Production

  • Scope:

    • Food, beverages and tobacco

    • Textiles, clothing & footwear

    • Wood and wood products

    • Paper & paper products

    • Chemicals, rubber & plastics

    • Non-metallic mineral products

    • Basic metal products

    • Fabricated metal products


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Electricity & Water

  • KWh of electricity generated by ZESCO-owned & Lunsemfwa hydro power stations

  • Main, mini-hydro and diesel stations

  • Hydro stations generate 99 % of total electricity

  • Water data from NWASCO (Water regulatory body)


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Construction

  • Primary data source: Census of Construction

  • Secondary indicators: Input indicators used to estimate output

    • Cement sales

    • Stone quarrying

  • Index of building materials used for deflation


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Trade, Business & Personal Services

  • No direct indicators used for these sectors

  • Trade industry assumes output from Agriculture, manufacturing and imports of consumption goods are disposed of through trade

  • Business services follows the same trend as Trade

  • Personal services follow the same trend as Business Services


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Hotels & Restaurants

  • Bed occupancy rates used; obtained from the Ministry of Tourism

  • Bars and restaurant data obtained indirectly from the Food, Beverages and Tobacco sub-sector under Manufacturing


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Transport & Communications

  • Transport broken down into:

    • Rail transport (data on number of passengers & tonnage of haulage obtained from 2 firms)

    • Road and pipeline transport (passenger & cargo hauled; registered public service vehicles)

    • Air transport (passengers embarking & disembarking at the 4 main airports)

  • Postal and telecommunications services


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Financial institutions & Insurance

  • Employment

  • FISIM

  • Number of policies issued


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Real estate & business services

  • Real estate: urban population growth rates

  • Business services: assumed to have the same trends as Retail Trade


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Community, social & personal services

  • Data mainly for government sector

  • Uses costs (Intermediate consumption, compensation of employees) to estimate output

  • Data obtained from Public Finance unit which gets it from Budget Office

  • Personal services assumed to follow the movements of Business Services


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Constraints

  • Budgetary constraints in other government agencies affects production of statistics (e.g. tourism, fisheries, local authorities)

  • Poor quality customs quantity data

  • Outdated and Weak Statistics Act


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End of Presentation

Thank You For Your Attention


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