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Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran

Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time-Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure. Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran. The Problem of State Failure. Question: Why do countries “fail”?

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Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran

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  1. Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time-Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran

  2. The Problem of State Failure • Question: Why do countries “fail”? • Is it a function of political, social or economic conditions? • Ultimately, can we predict failure and take steps to prevent it? • CW: The factors which induce failure are not the same ones that alleviate it • Theoretical hook: basis of rule of law Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  3. Failure Definition • Sample: 147 countries from 1955-97 • States can fail in any of 4 ways: • Revolutionary War (50 episodes/359 case-years) • Ethnic War (60 episodes/692 case-years) • Adverse Regime Change (87 episodes/255 case-years) • Genocide/Politicide (36 episodes/265 case-years) • Dependent variable is coded as a 1 if any of these failure modes is present Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  4. Summary Statistics on Failure • Total of 4596 country-years in study • Non-rectangular due mainly to appearance and disappearance of states over time • 18.47% of all country-years are failures • 68 countries (46%) had no failures • 4 countries had only failures • IV’s: trade openness, democracy, infant mortality, population density Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  5. New & Total Failures, 1955-97 Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  6. Probit Analysis 1 y* = xb + e, Probit: 1(0,1) P(y=1) = Probit(y*) ½ 0 The Standard Case Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  7. Probit Analysis 1 Probit(xb´) ½ 0 Impact of Changing b Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  8. Probit Analysis 1 ½ 0 Error Terms for MLE Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  9. Probit Analysis 1 ½ 0 t = 1 2 3… T Time Series Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  10. Probit Analysis – Time Series Cross Section 1 ½ 0 Country 1 1 ½ 0 Country 2 1 ½ 0 Country 3 1 ½ 0 Country 4

  11. Probit Analysis 1 ½ 0 Restricted Transition Model (LDV) Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  12. y* = Probit(xb+r) y* = Probit(xb) Probit Analysis 1 ½ 0 Restricted Transition Model (LDV) Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  13. y* = Probit(xb1+r) y* = Probit(xb2) Probit Analysis 1 ½ 0 Full Transition Model Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

  14. Probit Analysis 1 ½ 0 Lagged Latent Model Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran

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