Advancing Cross Line Office Execution: Achieving the Climate Goal Strategy

1. Advancing Cross Line Office Execution:Achieving the Climate Goal Strategy Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board Climate Working Group Presenter: Dr. Robert Detrick OAR AA, Climate Goal Champion June 30, 2012 Washington, D.C.

2. The Rising Demand forClimate Science and Services Commerce Coasts Recreation Ecosystems Hydropower Farming Wind Energy Private Sector

3. Climate Goal Strategy * As stated in NOAA’s NGSP Climate Goal: An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts* • Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts • Assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service, and stewardship decisions • Mitigation and adaptation efforts supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services • A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions Societal Challenges • Climate Impacts on Water Resources • Coasts and Climate Resilience • Changes in the Extremes of Weather and Climate • Sustainability of Marine Ecosystems

4. Federal Response to the nation’s climate challenges * NOAA provides critical assets in science & service to a Federal partnership * Security Forestry Water Partnerships & Collaboration NOAA’s Assets Health Information Delivery and Decision Support NOAA uses its national and regional infrastructure to deliver climate services today Infrastructure Assessments of Climate Change and Impacts NOAA is a leader in national and regional climate impact assessments Over 70% of Federal IPCC AR4 WG1 authors were from NOAA Global Climate Change Research and Modeling International award winning models of the global climate Predictions and projections across climate timescales Land Management Oceans Climate Observations and Monitoring NOAA operates over 90 observation and monitoring systems NOAA is mandated to monitor and provide access to climate data and information Energy Other *Representative Organizations & Sectors

5. Background • NOAA’s strategy and goals remain relevant. • Multi line execution is required to achieve goals. • The Climate Service Line Office proposal was developed to address organizational challenges for the Climate Goal. • Proposal was never implemented, but organizational challenges still exist. • Solutions for achieving NOAA’s climate strategy must work within existing organizational structures.

6. Advancing Cross Line Office Execution:Achieving the Climate Goal Strategy • No Organizational Changes • NOAA will work within existing authorities and organizational structures to advance the corporate strategy for the Climate Goal • All NOAA AAs are engaged • Per the Strategy Execution & Evaluation (SEE) NOAA Administrative Order (NAO), AA’s must coordinate with the Climate Goal Champion, and other appropriate Senior Executives, to execute NOAA’s climate strategy. • AA Climate Goal Board – a forum to improve multi-line execution • An AA Climate Goal Board, chaired by the Climate Goal Champion, will help the AAs carry out their responsibilities under the SEE NAO. • Adaptive management • Regular review of frameworks, execution activities, and leadership to promote maximum effectiveness

7. Coordinating Execution to Advance the Climate Goal within SEE • Champions Lead via IPs, Execution Agreements • Collaborating AAs and SO Directors Execute via AOPs • DUS-O Enforces via SES Performance Plans • Councils serve as forums for coordination and collaboration DUS-O Performance Plans PPI AA NOAA CFO AA Climate Goal Board (Chaired by Goal Champion) Champion Other LO AAs Other LO AAs Collaborating AAs and SO Directors AOP AOP IP AOPs Executive Working Group Director of Planning CFO Director of Planning CFO Strategy Lead Budget Lead Planning Directors CFOs Project Lead Project Plan Execution Agreements Executing Programs Executing Programs Executing Programs Executing Programs

8. Societal Challenge:Climate Impacts on Water Resources Demand for Water Resource Information • Will this drought intensify and when will it end? • Should I expect more droughts in the future? • Will the precipitation patterns I have come to know and rely on change in the future? • Will changes in snowpack impact tourism in my area? • What is the impact on wild fire outlooks? • Does my community need to upgrade our water storage and runoff systems? • NOAA Products and Services • Monitor and Forecast Drought and Flood Related Conditions • NIDIS Partnerships (Including Stakeholder Engagement) • Conduct impacts (or risk) assessments, develop decision tools and outlooks

9. Societal Challenge:Coasts and Climate Resilience • NOAA Products and Services • Coastal Inundation Modeling • Observations and Monitoring of Coastal Areas • Forecasting of Coastal Storms • Information for Adaptation Planning • NOAA sea-level standards have been adopted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for civil works programs. Demand for Coastal Impacts Information • Will my home continue to be safe from coastal inundation? • How will a changing environment/climate impact community development? • Will tourism and economic development be impacted by coastal change? • Will the frequency, track and intensity of coastal storms change?

10. Societal Challenge:Changes in the Extremes of Weather and Climate Demand for Weather and Climate Extremes Information • Infrastructure Decisions: • How much water should I expect at one time? • How dry could it get and for how long? • Public Health Decisions: • Will heat waves become more frequent? • Pocket Book Decisions: • How much insulation should I buy for my home? • What does my business need to know? • NOAA Products and Services • Data and Information Products (e.g., Precipitation frequency estimates, BAMS State of the Climate report) • Looking to the future (e.g., Seasonal forecasts; Dec-Cen models) • Advancing Understanding: (e.g., atmospheric rivers and “Drought Busters”)

11. Societal Challenge:Sustainability of Marine Ecosystems Demand for Information on Marine Ecosystem Impacts • How are ocean physical and chemical conditions changing? • When will fish stocks be impacted? Can I catch more or less? • How will protected species be impacted? • When will ocean acidification impact sea food industries? • What will the impact be on shipping and harbors? • What will the impact be on tourism and recreation? • What will the impact be on global food security? • NOAA Products and Services • Ocean observations: physical, chemical, biological • Impact assessments: productivity, species, users • Projections: climate, ocean , biological, social/economic • Explanations: why are things changing? • Climate-Ready resource management: • Fisheries, protected species, communities, economies

12. Execution Agreements • NOAA has many tools for documenting execution agreements. • Implementation Plans – identify multi-year expectations and Level 1 requirements; foundational document for developing more detailed agreements • Annual Operating Plans – current year commitments • Mid and End-year Execution Reviews – progress to plan • Formal Cross-Line execution agreements • Service Level Agreements and Memorandums of Understanding • Funding transfers (NOAA Policy 06-P0001, signed in 2006) • Others TBD (e.g. CRADA – Cooperative Research And Development Agreements) • Project Leads will evaluate: • Most appropriate tool to use • Effectiveness of the tools • Need for additional tools

13. External Engagement andUser Needs Assessments Project Leads and Executive Working Groups must demonstrate to the AA Climate Goal Board that they are: • Considering external activities, and establishing NOAA’s role within a broader context • Climate Change Adaptation Task Force • National Climate Assessment • USGCRP Strategic Plan and Priorities • National Academy of Sciences Risk Framework • NOAAs Grand Science Challenge Workshops and SAB • Etc... (other sources as relevant to the activity) • Reviewing relevant existing user needs assessments; attempt to conduct additional needs assessments, if appropriate

14. Key Issues • Integration of NOAA’s pieces • Past SAB CWG recommendations on integrating NOAA capabilities • How can NOAA best use the AA Climate Goal Board forum to support NOAA’s mission for climate: science, service, and data stewardship? • Prioritizing new investments based on time scales • Understanding of all climate time scales is important for society. • How should NOAA distribute its limited resources for this research? • Observation and Monitoring • Observing infrastructure requires attention. • How does NOAA evaluate observing system priorities for climate? • Societal Challenges • What key gaps in understanding need to be filled to advance products and information services within the societal challenge areas?