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第 10 章 预期理论 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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第 10 章 预期理论. 预期是经济学中的一个重要概念。在预期理论的演进过程中,先后出现了静态预期、外推预期、适应性预期和理性预期等预期形成假设。本章从理解预期的一般性概念入手,回顾了预期理论的发展,重点考察了理性预期和理性预期的宏观经济模型。当把理性预期引入对社会总需求和总供给的分析之后,形成了卢卡斯总供给曲线(附加预期的总供给曲线)以及理性预期的宏观经济模型,依据此模型分析了价格水平和国民收入的决定,并得到了不同的政策含义。. 一、预期理论的发展.

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第 10 章 预期理论

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10

10


10


10

1936,


10


10


10

1

t-1t

Pte=Pt-110.1

Pt-1t-1Ptet-1t

t-1


10

2

t

Pte=Pt-1 +Pt-1- Pt-2 10.2


10

tPtePt-1 Pt-1- Pt-2Pt-1t-1Pt-1t-2 Pt-2 Pt-1- Pt-20tt-10= 0Pte=Pt-100


10

t-1t-2t-1t-1t-2tQtsPt-1Pt-2

t-1t-2


10

3

t

Pte=Pt-1+Pt-1-Pt-201 10.3

PtePt-1t-1t-2 tt-1 Pt-1t-1


10

tt-1t-1Pt-1- Pet-1t-1t-1t-1tPte

tt-11tt-1=1 Pte =Pt-1


10

Cagan1956


10

J.Muth1961


10

10-1


10

Qtd=-Pt

Qts=+Pte

Qtd=Qts

QtdttPtQtstt-1tPtetPt


10

Pte=Pt -1

n


10

tPt=Pt+1==P*

limPn=P*

limPn=,PnP*Pn


10

1

1

1996

J.Muth1961


10

t-1

Pet=E(PtIt-1) =E(Pt) 10.4

Pett-1tIt-1t-1E(PtIt-1)tt-1t-1It-1

t= Pt-Pet= Pt -E(PtIt-1) 10.4 Pet=Pt+t 10.5

Et=0PetPtPetIt-1Pet


10

t-1t-1t-1t


10

10-2

Qtd=-Pt

Qts=+Pte+t

Qtd =Qts

t


10

Pte=Et-1(Pt)


10

tEt-1 t=0Pet=P*

tt

k


10

2

Rational Man


10


10


10


10


10

Philips Curve


10


10

2

1


10

AYNES1AD1PeP1


10

AD1AD2ES1BPYB Pe=P2ES1ES2AD2ES2CYNP2AC


10

AD1AD2AD2AD1P1ES1AD2ES1BYPYNES1ES2AD2C


10

Ytd=-Pt10.6

Yts=YN+(Pt-Pte) 10.7

Ytd= Yts10.8

10.6ttYtdPt


10

10.7tYtsPttPteYNPtPtePtPte


10

10.8

10-1

AD1=0AD2=1A1t=1

Y1d=0-P1

Y1s=YN+(P1-P1e)

Y1d= Y1s

P1e=P1

YN


10

AD1AD22t=2P2e=P2

Y2s =YN+(P2-P2e)=YN

10.8 Y2d=1-P2 =YN

10.9

YN

10.9YNP


10

Y2d=1-P2

Y2s=YN+(P2-P2e)

Y2d= Y2s

P2

Y

1-0

1976


10

2


10


10


10

3

W/P


10

WPtPet


10

Expectation Augment Aggregate CurveES

10-2


10

10-2ab

10-2aNsNd


10

E0P0Pe=P0Nd0N0sN0dNs0E0N0YNP0P1N0sN1dP1PeN1dNs0E1N1Y1P0ES0YNE0ES


10

10-2bES1P1ES

Yts=YN+(Pt-Pte) YtsPtPtet-1tYN


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