Fire research is about people and so is economics
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Fire research is about people ... and so is economics. inFIRE Conference Presentation Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist BERL 01 March 2012. Agenda. introduction question overview of some research examples review. NZFS Commission. statutory duty promote fire safety

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Fire research is about people and so is economics

Fire research is about people ... and so is economics

inFIRE Conference Presentation

Dr Ganesh Nana

Chief Economist

BERL

01 March 2012


Agenda
Agenda

  • introduction

  • question

  • overview of some research examples

  • review


Nzfs commission
NZFS Commission

  • statutory duty

    • promote fire safety

    • better work practices

    • effective rural fire management

  • Contestable Research Fund (CRF)

    • supports research into better methods and practices of fire safety


BERL

  • independent private business and economic consultancy

  • have undertaken CRF research related to

    • promoting fire safety

    • improving NZFS operations

    • establishing costs of fires


Research methods
Research Methods

  • quantitative

    • statistics, regressions, modelling

  • practical

    • interviews, case studies, recommendations

  • strategic

    • review and analysis of public policy, strategies, regulations and legislation

  • theoretical

    • literature reviews, metadata analysis

      Is this a useful division for fire research?


To promote fire safety e g alcohol and fire research
To promote fire safetye.g. alcohol and fire research

Approach

  • literature scan – what is happening elsewhere?

  • consult – what are others doing?

  • assess

  • recommend


Living research e g alcohol and fire
Living research e.g. alcohol and fire

  • US – alcohol impairment contributing factor in home fire deaths

  • UK – unintentional dwelling fires identified alcohol and intoxication as a risk factor

  • Scotland – the Fire and Rescue Service recognised alcohol as a major social problem

  • NZ – drinking patterns a major problem

    AND many agencies sending messages aimed at reducing alcohol harm

    don't drink and fry video


Outcome e g alcohol and fire
Outcomee.g. alcohol and fire

Recommend NZFS consider its messages and efforts/role in areas

  • technical

    • smoke detectors, alarms, built environment

  • environmental

    • when fire occurs, in what setting, causes

  • behavioural

    • education, advertising, government policy


To promote fire safety e g the influence of demographics
To promote fire safetye.g. the influence of demographics

Approach

  • review issues and establish questions to be addressed

  • extract data – NZFS and Statistics NZ - what can data tell us, and what does it not tell us?

  • assess, analyse and evaluate

  • select case study areas for closer inspection

  • confirm findings


Living research e g the influence of demographics
Living researche.g. the influence of demographics

  • group rather than single factor

  • regression (data) analysis

    • increase – density, gas as fuel, qualifications

    • decrease – separate dwellings, age (45-64)

  • case studies


Outcome e g the influence of demographics
Outcomee.g. the influence of demographics

Recommend NZFS tailor fire safety messages considering impacts of

  • urban v rural population growth

  • increasing urban density

  • apartments v separate dwellings

  • gas as heating fuel

  • age and qualification characteristics of popn


To improve nzfs operations e g composite performance measure
To improve NZFS operationse.g. composite performance measure

Approach

  • review – what happens now?

  • consult – what performance needs measurement?

  • extract and analyse data – what can data tell us, and what does it not tell us?

  • construct additional measures

  • propose


Living research e g composite performance measure
Living research e.g. composite performance measure

  • performance of NZFS assessed on outcomes

  • state of capability and readiness not incorporated in current performance measures


Outcome e g composite performance measure
Outcome e.g. composite performance measure

NZFS consider modified composite performance measure

  • to combine measures of outputs measures and of capability and readiness

  • is critical if appropriate level of capability and readiness is to be encouraged (and funded)


To improve nzfs operations e g metadata analysis of crf studies
To improve NZFS operationse.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies

Approach

  • establish assessment framework

  • categorise studies and links to CRF purpose

  • identify links to NZFS strategic priority areas and operational responsibilities

  • investigate outcomes of studies

  • determine contribution of CRF


Living research e g metadata analysis of crf studies
Living researche.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies

  • over 100 research projects between 1998-2010

  • common themes recurring through the years

  • clear alignment

    • with CRF purpose

    • with NZFS strategic priority areas

    • with NZFS operation responsibilities


Outcome e g metadata analysis of crf studies
Outcomee.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies

evidence that NZFS use CRF studies to improve fire outcomes


To establish costs of fires e g costs of industrial fires
To establish costs of fires e.g. costs of industrial fires

Approach

  • literature scan – what is happening elsewhere?

  • agree costing method

  • extract data – NZFS and Insurance Council data

  • construct estimation model and populate

  • report results


Living research e g costs of industrial fires
Living research e.g. costs of industrial fires

  • impact on business activity

    • direct economic interruption

    • indirect impact on suppliers

    • effect on wider community

  • impact on fire service

    • cost of operational readiness


Outcome e g costs of industrial fires
Outcomee.g. costs of industrial fires

evidence that improving fire outcomes closely related to operational readiness of NZFS


To establish costs of fires e g value of statistical life vosl
To establish costs of fires e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL)

Approach

  • literature scan – what is happening elsewhere?

  • explore costing options

  • devise survey questions

  • undertake survey and assess responses

  • impute VoSL from responses

  • report results


Living research e g value of statistical life vosl
Living research e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL)

  • is VoSL from fire event different VoSL from road accident event?

  • perceptions of risk and of ‘personal control’ lie at heart of different values


Outcome e g value of statistical life vosl
Outcomee.g. value of statistical life (VoSL)

NZFS consider adopting appropriate VoSL for Regulatory Impact Statements and relative assessments


Quantitative practical theoretical or strategic
Quantitative, Practical, Theoretical or Strategic?


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