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Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 10. August 2007

Research Activities in the Climate Services at MeteoSwiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Christof Appenzeller Michael Begert, Paul Della-Marta, Christoph Frei, Heike Kunz, Mark Liniger, Simon Scherrer, Andreas Weigel, Christian Wüthrich www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch.

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Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 10. August 2007

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  1. Research Activities in the Climate Services at MeteoSwissFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwissChristof AppenzellerMichael Begert, Paul Della-Marta, Christoph Frei, Heike Kunz, Mark Liniger, Simon Scherrer, Andreas Weigel, Christian Wüthrichwww.meteoschweiz.admin.ch Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz

  2. Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 10. August 2007 Quelle: MeteoSchweiz Climate Services products …..

  3. TasksClimate Services MeteoSwiss To provide reliable weather and climate data and analyses products for the public, government, politics and business, yesterday, today and tomorrow Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz

  4. Project DigiHomDigitalisation and homogenisation of long term climate series in Switzerland Swiss National Basic Climatological Network(Swiss NBCN) • Temperature (mean, min, max) • Precipitation • Sunshine duration • Air pressure (partly) Annual temperature of Basel 1755-2007 Begert et al., 2005 HOMOGENEOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SERIES OF SWITZERLAND FROM 1864 TO 2000, Int. J. Climatol. 25: 65–80 Begert 2009, to appear.

  5. EU FP6 ENSEMBPLES WP 5.1:Development of a daily high-resolution gridded observational dataset for Europe Contribution of MeteoSwiss: automated detectionprocedure for discontinuities in large data sets precipitation 1960-2004 Tmin 1960-2004 number of inhomogeneities detected: 0(), 1(), 3(), 4(), undefined () Begert, M., E. Zenklusen, C. Häberli, C. Appenzeller, L. Klok, 2008, to appear in Met. Zeitschrift.

  6. Re-Analysis ERA40 & observationsExample Ozone over Arosa Differences total ozone ERA-40 & homogenized observations over Arosa Kunz, H., S. Scherrer, C. Appenzeller and M. Liniger, 2007: The evolution of ERA-40 surface temperatures and total ozone compared to observed Swiss time series, Meteorol. Z., DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0183

  7. New long snow series in the Alpes Digitising of new snow sum (and snow depth) series Reconstruction of days with snow pack via snow depth reconstruction (daily temperature/precipitation) new snow sum Sils Maria 1864 – 2005 (1798 m asl) cm/yr Savognin 1990 days/yr Sils Maria 1864 – 2005 (1798 m asl) days with snow pack (>1cm) Davos 1999 Wüthrich C, et al., 2010: in preparation. Scherrer, S. C., C. Appenzeller, and M. Laternser, 2004: Trends in Swiss Alpine snow days: The role of local- and large-scale climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13215, doi:10.1029/2004GL020255.

  8. 1929 Stations (AUT, CH, DL) Gridding in complex topographyCOST733 Weather classification Heavy Precipitation event in the Alps August 2005 Christop Frei and Reinhard Schieman Frei, C, and C. Schär, 1998, A precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations., Int. J. Climatol., 18, 873-900. Frei, C, et al, 2006: Starkniederschlagsereignis August 2005, Arbeitsbericht MeteoSchweiz Nr. 211, ISSN: 1422-1381

  9. Monthly/seasonal climate outlooks www.meteoswiss.ch  climate  seasonal outlook

  10. NCCR I at MetCH: 2001-05 NCCR II at MetCH: 2005-09 MeteoSwiss research within National Centre for Competence in Research – Climate See www.meteoswiss.ch Research  Projects  NCCR-Climate II

  11. Can discriminate in 55-60% of the cases RPSSd good bad 0 -1 1 Skill of today seasonal forecast system (ECMWF Sys 3) 2m temperature Spring Summer Autumn Winter

  12. Muotathaler Muotathaler Statistical post-processing Method 1: multi-model approach(ECMWF, UK MetOffice, Météo France) Method 2: Climate conserving recalibration (inflation) of single models Weigel, A., M. Liniger and C. Appenzeller, 2008: Can multi-model combination really enhance prediction skill of ensemble forecasts ?, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 241–260 (2008) DOI: 10.1002/qj.210 Weigel, A., M. Liniger and C. Appenzeller, 2009: Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multi-models?, in preparation.

  13. Average RPSS raw Recalibration versus multi-models inflated multi High predictability E: ECMWF U: UK Met Office C: Météo France Example:1 month lead JJA 2m temperature forecasts

  14. Average RPSS raw Recalibration versus multi-models inflated multi Low predictability E: ECMWF U: UK Met Office C: Météo France

  15. Day 5-11 Day 12-18 Day 19-25 Day 26-32 Monthly forecasts VarEPS: 32-day EPS (calculated once per week) warmer than normal normal cooler than normal

  16. Monthly temperature forecast skill …depends on region, season, lead-time Results: annual mean RPSSD for week 1, 2, and 3 monthly forecast. Day 12-18 Day 19-25 Day 5-11 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 (Weigel et al. 2008a, MWR, accepted)

  17. I wish you a nice stay in Zürich Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz

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