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MED-Impact

MED-Impact. Decision-support instrument to promote renewable energy investments in the Mediterranean www.med-impact.com. Project’s background. Institutional background Funded by the FGEF (French Global Environmental Facility)

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MED-Impact

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  1. MED-Impact Decision-support instrument to promote renewable energy investments in the Mediterranean www.med-impact.com

  2. Project’s background Institutional background • Funded by the FGEF (French Global Environmental Facility) • Support from AFD, French DG-Treasury and French DG-Energy & Climate • Implemented by ADETEF – Assistance Technique France Context • French contribution to the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) Project’s vision • Development of the MED-IMPACT tool: a generic comparative methodology for MED countries to evaluate the costs and benefits between renewable energies and conventional energies

  3. Objectives and approach A decision-making tool forpublic and private decision makers Objectives: • Highlight externalities (costs and benefits) induced by the development of RE on: • the power system (production & transmission) • macro- and socio-economic parameters • financial leverages allowing a better competitiveness of RE projects Approach: • Bottom-up approach: « Portfolio of RE projects by 2020 » as main input • Taking into account4 technologies: Wind, PV, CSP and CPV • Developed for4 countries:Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan • Location of Projects’ siteson a map

  4. 3 Work packages • Work package 1 - Impacts of RE integration on thepower system • Work package 2 - Impacts of RE onsocio- and macro-economic parameters • Work package 3 -Financial structuring+ integration of RE externalities

  5. WP 1 - impacts on the power system Production system • Evaluate the substitution of conventional capacity units by RE • Impact on production capacity • Impact on fuel consumption (base units and back-up/peak units) Transportation system • Evaluate theconnection costs for RE and conventional units • Estimated costs of grid reinforcement according to the RE integration rate

  6. WP 2 - Macro and socio impacts Impacts on Hydrocarbon trade balance Evaluate the value created : • by an increase of hydrocarbon trade balance • by a better hedging on oil price uncertainty Socio economic impacts & taxes : • Employment & Job creation Value chain analysis by technologies • Value Added & GDP • Impact of equipments imports on the trade balance and fiscal revenues

  7. WP 3 - Financial structure of RE projects Impacts offinancial leverageson economic and financial indicators for each RE projects • Analysis of RE project financing (debt/equity, ROE, etc.) • Define the Power Purchase Agreement (Local-PPA) Business Plan based on : • Income statement • Cash flow statement

  8. The 5 strong points of the tool • Meets the expectations of the MED-countries • Easy to use (Excel 2007) • Understandable by all type of users • Database (easy to configure) • Default value • Limited number of parameters in 1st use • Possibility of a « fine setting » • 1 tool = « 3 models » 1 2 3 4 5

  9. 1 model = « 3 tools » Global overview of externalities of a national RE policy, to improve decision making process: Beneficiaries : Administrations / Governments 1 • Detailed view of impacts of a national RE policy, on (i) power system, (ii) socioeconomic, or (iii) financial issues: Beneficiaries : Ministries of energy, ministries of finances, environmental agencies, electricity utilities, etc.. 2 • Detailed view of impacts related to a specific RE project, allowing projects’ developers to better defined their bidding documents: Beneficiaries : Administrations, state companies & agencies in charge of RE development, investors, etc. 3 MED-Impact

  10. Thank you for your attention Visit our website : www.med-impact.com Contact: Charles Hullot – Project manager charles.hullot@adetef.finances.gouv.fr contact.med-impact@adetef.finances.gouv.fr

  11. Back-up

  12. Outputs – the case of Egypt Comparison between two scenarios for EGYPT [GW, 20012-2020]: In 2020, MED-Impact quantifies the effect coming from the introduction of 8.2 GW of additional renewable capacities 8,2 S R S Simulated scenario R OME reference scenario – no evolution from 2010 onwards

  13. Outputs – the case of Egypt Impact of the integration rate on the back-up needs For the same capacity and generated energy, the back-up needs increase with the integration rate

  14. Outputs – the case of Egypt Evaluation of “hydrocarbons” externalitiesin 2020 (EUR/MWh) Comparison of Hydrocarbon exportsdepending on OME Scenario (Mtoe, 2008-2020) Value in EURm Mtoe 51 7 58 5 +45% 71 OME Reference Scenario Simulated scenario 2020 Hydrocarbons impact on the balance of trade Value of the uncertainty on hydrocarbons prices TOTAL

  15. Outputs – the case of Egypt

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