MIFIRA Framework: Lecture 13 Putting together the pieces

1. MIFIRA Framework:Lecture 13Putting together the pieces Chris Barrett and Erin Lentz March 2012

2. Putting together the pieces • Before diving into the analytics consider: • Needs assessment • Context • Households and Individuals • Marketshed • Seasonal Calendars • Market-mapping • Policies

3. Putting together the pieces • What are the pieces? • Recipients / Consumers • Access • Preferences • Demand • Suppliers & Source Markets • Identifying markets • Supply responsiveness • Competition • Equilibrium effects • Integrate supply responsiveness and demand

4. Access • 1a. Are food insecure households well connected to local markets? • Basic info: which markets, for what products, when? • What constrains access? • Inter-community constraints • Distance, safety, costs, seasons • Intra-community constraints • Socio-cultural reasons (gender, caste, marital status, etc.), safety, OVCs, HIV+ households • When are access constraints insurmountable?

5. Demand Response • 1b. How will local demand respond to transfers? • By how much will demand shift? • The form of the transfer matters • The amount of the transfer matters • The targeting of the transfer plays a major role • The demand effects of transfers are typically greatest among poorer households and in lean seasons.

6. Preferences • 1e. Do food insecure households have a preference over the form/mix of aid they receive? • Eliciting preferences can identify not only preferred transfer but also issues and concerns of households or individuals • When eliciting preferences, need to provide information on how transfers would most likely be delivered • Will delivery location and timing for different transfers differ? • Will cash transfers be inflation indexed?

7. Methods of understanding access and preferences • Information sources: • Expenditure data • Rapid Appraisal • Key Informants • Household survey • Focus group discussions • by gender • by target population • Inter-community differences • Marketshed mapping

8. Supply Side • 1c. How much additional food can traders supply at or near current costs? & 2b. Will agency purchases drive up food prices excessively in source markets? • Trader capacity to respond to demand increases • Price analysis: market integration and IPPs • Availability and trade • Barriers to trade expansion (including policies) • Supply chains and market maps • Supply responsiveness • Linking supply and marginal costs

9. Supply side • 1d. Do local food traders behave competitively? • Marketing margins • Counts, CR4, HHI • Structure, conduct, performance • 2a. Where are viable prospective source markets? & 2c. Will local or regional purchases affect producer prices differently than transoceanic shipments? • Market integration and IPPs • Formal and informal policies • Availability • Program comparisons

10. Triangulating Findings • MIFIRA analytics may conflict, due to: • Different types of data • Different underlying assumptions • Different geographic scope • The less precise the MIFIRA analysis, the more important monitoring becomes

11. Monitoring: three areas • Early warning indicators: • Has the food security situation changed? • Monitoring market conditions: • How are markets functioning (e.g., are prices rising? are prices volatile?, has competition changed?)? • Monitoring impact of the intervention: • Is the intended population being reached? • Is the program having the intended effects? • Are there any adverse effects? • For a given program, is the form of transfer still appropriate?

12. Role of Monitoring in Information Gathering, Planning and Analysis, and Program Implementation Cycle Source: Barrett (2009) MIFIRA

13. Monitoring • We focus on monitoring market conditions and program effects • Tailor monitoring • The less precise an aspect of the analysis is, the more important careful monitoring of that aspect becomes • When feasible, assess duration and direction of change • Expectations, trends • Assess program size relative to the local economy

14. Monitoring Prices • When will ongoing monitoring of prices indicate a need for further investigation? • Prices rise or are more volatile • Are prices increasing more than 10% (or more than the amount estimated using supply responsiveness)? • Are prices outstripping inflation? • Abnormalities compared to expectations • Are prices deviating from historical trends? • Data falls outside of estimated confidence bands • Are prices increasing more than estimated?

15. Monitoring Recipient Impacts • Households can provide information on: • Ease of access • Food availability in local markets • Changes in terms of trade and prices • Severity of food insecurity • Perceived quality of food

16. Monitoring Local and Regional Procurement • Assess prices of food in target delivery markets • Increases in price volatility can harm local producers • And, assess prices in source markets • Identify possible harm to consumers at the source market • Increased volatility around / following LRP

17. Minimum Monitoring Schedule • Prices and terms of trade: semi-monthly or monthly • Household access and preference: periodically • Important events: as they arise • Be precise about data needs

18. Triggers • When should response analysis be re-visited? • Sources of triggers: • Shocks, important events or other changes • Findings from on-going monitoring • Abnormalities or departures from the context under which the analysis was completed • If re-evaluating the response analysis is warranted, focus on aspects that have changed

19. Triggers • Shocks: • Policy changes affecting staple foods, livelihoods, or food trade • Market access of traders/ households (conflict, infrastructural damage) • Abnormalities: • Changes in supply chains, competition • On-going monitoring: • Price spikes or unusual volatility • Changes in terms of trade for food insecure or near-insecure households (including inflation)