SEEM Calibration: Phase II Single Family Heating Energy

1. SEEM Calibration: Phase IISingle Family Heating Energy Regional Technical Forum September 17, 2013

2. Background: Phase I • Provided Calibrated T-stat Settings for houses with known heating energy use • 30% of the 1404 RBSA homes were used in calibration, the rest weren’t included because: • Incapable of running in SEEM (foundation type, etc.) • Non-utility fuel use or equipment (wood, oil, etc.) • Poor billing analysis results • Note: Gas-heated homes were included in the calibration • Approved May 2013 SF RBSA Pie: 1404 Homes

3. Phase II • Purpose is to adjust for electric heating energy in program-like homes. • Adjustments need to address: • Non-utility heating sources; • Program-permitted gas heat sources (e.g., gas fireplaces) • Other SEEM Calibration filters • To capture effects on program-like homes, the present analysis is based on RBSA homes with: • At least one permanently-installed electric heat source; • No gas, oil, etc. centralheating systems (FAF or Boiler); • Note that heat stoves and fireplaces (any fuel) are allowed. • Status Update presented at June 2013 Meeting • Finish analysis and send to subcommittee Single-Family RBSA Pie: 1404 Homes

4. Subcommittee Meeting • August 6, 2013 • Presentation • Minutes • Draft Report • Summary • Baylon: Recommendations to adjust the regression specification for non-utility fuels; test climate zone’s effect. • Discussion on how to properly interpret the regression results to determine off-grid and gas fuel use for different electric heating systems. • Note while subcommittee was well-attended, Baylon, Hadley, and Rushton did 99% of the talking.

5. Recent Changes • Added another variable to account for differences in off-grid heating fuel usage between heating zone 1 and heating zones 2 and 3. This change improved the regression. • Added RBSA house weights; removed the “SEEM.data” variable (whose coefficient was marginal to begin with). • Off-grid and Natural Gas use will be valued at the retail price of electricity. • This matches the RTF direction given for DHPs at the August RTF meeting.

6. Proposed Regression: Summary(Model fit to RBSA sites with permanently installed electric heating system and without non-electric central heating systemsand with Electric Heat > 0 kWh/yr)

7. Determining Adjustments (“Typical” Program Screen) Zone 1 Off-Grid Fuel Adjustment 10.2% 4.4% Natural Gas Adjustment Total Heating kWh Adjustment Zones 2 & 3 Off-Grid Fuel Adjustment 11.2% 1.6% Natural Gas Adjustment Total Heating kWh Adjustment

8. Adjusted Heating kWh(Heating kWh aligned with RBSA electric usage data) 5984 kWh/yr

9. Estimating the Value of Off-Grid Fuel Usage $73/year Note: The same methodology will be used to determine the value of Natural Gas Fuel Usage (Using the natural gas fuel use factor from the regression). While it would seem beneficial to convert the kWh savings to therm savings, and enter therm savings into ProCost, the truth is that we don’t know the exact mechanism for gas savings for any particular measure, so stating specific therm savings is unreliable.

10. Putting it all Together: Example Measure + ProCost Entry: Electric Savings This example applies to programs with “standard” eligibility criteria: requires some permanently-installed electric heating source and screens out houses with any non-electric central heating system. ProCost Entry: Fuel Cost Savings (O&M)

11. Program Screening OptionsPrinciples: Feasible for Programs and Auditable • A: Off-grid Heating Equipment Screen • Houses do not have off-grid-fueled (wood, propane, pellets, etc.) heating equipment • B: Gas Space Heating Equipment Screen • Houses do not have natural gas space heating equipment. • C: Electric Heat Signature Screen • House has an electric heat signature, verified through the RTF-approved screening tool or specification • Simple Calculator Inputs: 12 months billing history, maybe weather, too. • Need to decide on calculation method. Options: PRISM-like, Winter average > Summer average, Others? • Any combination of the three (or none).

12. Adjustment Factors Under Alternative Program Screens Heating Zone 1

13. Heating Zone 1:All Program Screen Combinations

14. KWh Adjustment Factor Program Screen Combination

15. Zones 2 and 3:All Program Screen Combinations

16. KWh Adjustment Factor Program Screen Combination

17. Discussion • Primary Decisions • Does the RTF approve the proposed methodology to determine calibrated heating energy use and savings? • Does the RTF approve the proposed methodology to determine benefits for off-grid and natural gas fuels? • Other Questions • Should the RTF post the savings for all of the program options identified (A, B, C, and combinations, pass/fail)? • Count of Residential HVAC and Weatherization UES measures will be 27 times what it is today. • Does the RTF want to use the regional-weighted average retail price of electricity as a proxy for the value of off-grid and natural gas fuels (for this specific situation)?

18. Proposed Decision “I _______ move to adopt the Phase II SEEM Calibration for single family homes and use the methodology as proposed for determining • electric energy consumption, • off-grid fuel and natural gas fuel benefits. The RTF will • Use (Not use) the 8 program screening options to populate measure tables for the 27 possible combinations of program screening options and pass/fail outcomes. (Instead, the RTF will use ______ .) AND • Use (Not use)the regional-weighted average retail price of electricity as a proxy for the value of off-grid and natural gas fuels. (Instead, the RTF will use ______ .)” Note: This analysis applies to all single-family SEEM-affected UES measures, except those with their own calibration data (i.e. DHP’s).