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Emerging Markets to Frontier Markets. Paul Goodwin Analyst, Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report [email protected] Danger Everywhere You Look. What Are the Dangers? . Examples: Greek liquidity crisis Egyptian revolution China’s investor controls Inflation in Brazil Bureaucracy in India.

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Emerging markets to frontier markets

Emerging Markets toFrontier Markets

Paul Goodwin

Analyst,

Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report

[email protected]



What are the dangers
What Are the Dangers?

  • Examples:

    • Greek liquidity crisis

    • Egyptian revolution

    • China’s investor controls

    • Inflation in Brazil

    • Bureaucracy in India




Emerging markets leave china in the dust jan 2011 apr 2013
Emerging Markets Leave China in the Dust: Jan. 2011–Apr. 2013


Then it all changes in may
Then It All Changes in May

  • PGJ = China

  • EEM = Emerging Markets


Em investing is a stock picker s game
EM Investing Is a Stock-Picker’s Game

  • Phoenix New Media (FENG)

    • Inc. 2007 in Beijing

    • Internet, mobile and TV

    • Market cap: $625 million

    • Revenue: $184 million

    • Announced Q2 results Monday: stock up 12%


  • Revenue sources (Q1 2013)

    • Value added services = 79% of revenue

      • Social Networks—24%

      • Online Games—55%

    • Advertising = 6%

    • eCommerce = 14%



  • Established 1999

    • Largest eCommerce player in China

    • Market cap HKD67 billion ($8.7 billion)

    • 17% owned by Yahoo!

    • IPO talked about end of 2013


  • Alibaba.com—Global e-commerce

  • 1688.com—E-commerce for small Chinese biz

  • AliExpress—Global consumer marketplace

  • Taobao.com—C2C shopping destination

  • Tmall.com—Online brand-name shopping

  • eTao—Comprehensive shopping search engine

  • Alibaba Cloud Computing—Just like Amazon

  • Alipay—Just like Paypal


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