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SEB Eastern European Equity Funds

SEB Eastern European Equity Funds. Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management. Agenda. Introduction to SEB Wealth Management Eastern Europe Eastern European equity team & process Eastern European equity products (a short overview)

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SEB Eastern European Equity Funds

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  1. SEB Eastern EuropeanEquity Funds Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management SEB Wealth Management

  2. Agenda • Introduction to SEB Wealth Management Eastern Europe • Eastern European equity team & process • Eastern European equity products (a short overview) • SEB EE ex Russia Fund • SEB EE Small Cap Fund • Q&A

  3. SEB WM in Eastern Europe • Presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine • AuM 2.6 bn EUR (July 2007) • Eastern European equities management is most important single business line (AuM €1.33bn) • Wide range of local products to local clients • Over 500 000 local (Eastern European) clients • SEB Eastern European equity mandate • SEB EE Small Cap since June 2003 • Full EE equity mandate (4 funds) since July 2005 • Redesign of products during 2006 • Average Morningstar (3-year) rating 4.33

  4. SEB Eastern European Equity Investment Team & Process

  5. Why did SEB select us?We have delivered >500% return in <8 years Full SEB EE equity mandate SEB Baltic Fund mandate 2003-2005 Partial in-sourcing from Estonian team SEB’s Eastern European equities mgmt fully outsourced to London-based global manager 2005 onwards: Full in-sourcing from own Eastern European team SEB Growth Fund (Bloomberg: UHIKASV ET) is an Estonian domiciled Eastern European equity fund managed by SEB EE Equity Team

  6. Eastern European equity team Alo SEB ex Russia Wojciech Macro Strategy Piotr SEB Östeuropa Raul Materials Dainius Energy Meelis Healthcare & Industrials Sulev SEB Russia Robert Financials Wojciech SEB EE SmallCap Peeter Telecoms & Utilities (left Feb 2007) Taken in Dec 2006. Wojciech Wasilewski (Consumer sectors) joined the team in Jan 2007.

  7. The TeamLocation and market experience Sector sub-portfolio managers (7 yrs) Fund managers (avg experience 11 years) ESTONIA: sub-portfolio managers • Basic Materials – Raul Rannaste (10 years) • HealthCare, Industrials – Meelis Angerma (7 years) ESTONIA: fund managers Sulev Raik (12 years) – SEB Russia Fund Alo Kullamaa (11 years) – SEB EE ex Russia Fund LITHUANIA: sub-portfolio manager • Oil & Gas – Dainius Bloze (8 years) • Telecoms – Gediminas Milieska (3 years) POLAND: fund managers Piotr Sieradzan (6 years) - SEB Östeuropafond Wojciech Rostworowski (15 years) – SEB EE Small Cap Fund POLAND: sub-portfolio managers • Financials – Robert Sobieraj (11 years) • Consumer Staples & Disc – Wojciech Wasilewski (2 years) • IT – Piotr Sieradzan (6 years) macro strategist • Wojciech Bialek (12 years) Tallinn Vilnius Warsaw

  8. Investment philosophy We believe that… • capital markets are not always efficient – especially in underdeveloped CEE region, even more so in Russia and in the CEE mid and small cap arena • analyzing stocks by sectors rather than by countries provides better insight • in our team we need sub-portfolio managers rather than pure analysts • combining equity analysis with top-down insight will add value • each investment decision should have a good fundamental explanation – fundamental analysis is the key to superior performance

  9. Our investment style GARP: Growth At Reasonable Price “Reasonable price” or value is defined by combination of • absolute valuation based on discounted free cash flow (DCF) models and • comparative valuation based on applicable valuation indicators (EV/S, EV/EBITDA, EV/Comps, P/E, P/S, P/B etc) We seek companies with above average earnings growth potential, but we also have an eye on value – we do not want to overpay for growth prospects

  10. Bottom-up process Details of the bottom-up process Bottom-up stock picking forms the basis of our investment process • Stock picking is carried out by 7 analysts covering 10 sectors • Company visits • Understand the business & know management, bear in mind corporate governance issues (extremely important in this region) • Preferred valuation method: DCF and modified Gordon Growth Model • Comparative ratio analysis • Identify long term growth factors/risks, short term catalysts • Sub-portfolio manager’s performance evaluated by model portfolio performance vs sector index

  11. Company visitsintegral part of the investment process Sulev visiting Efes Brewery Rostov na Donu Sulev & Dainius On Kazakh oil fields Sulev on a Lukoili oil field, Kogalym, Western Siberia Sulev with a gold bullion Uralelektromed, Verhnaya Pyshma Western Siberia Sulev & SS-17/Spanker (intercontinental ballistic missile) Yuzhmash Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine

  12. Top-down process We use top-down inputs to provide additional insight, but it is not central* to our investment process • Identify macroeconomic value drivers • Economic growth • Overall country risk outlook • Interest rate outlook • FX outlook • Recommended sector allocation targets * note: the importance of top-down process varies by product from being relatively important for the SEB Östeuropafond to unimportant for the SEB CEE Small Cap Fund

  13. Portfolio construction • The final responsibility for portfolio construction lies with the fund manager. • Freedom to follow or not to follow exactly the sector model portfolios and top-down process – model portfolios act as idea generators and are interpreted by the fund manager Top-down recommendations Interpretation by fund manager Product portfolio Bottom-up model portfolios

  14. Summary: what makes us different? • Our Team • We are truly LOCAL • Multinational • Experienced • Talented • Our Investment Process • Sector based research (vs country based) • Focus on stock selection • Our organization • Fun place to work – no bureacracy • Personal responsibility/accountability

  15. SEB Eastern European Fund Range

  16. Profit on convergence:SEB Eastern Europe ex Russia Fund Alo Kullamaa Fund manager, ESTONIA 11 years of CEE equity market experience

  17. Profit on change:SEB Russia Fund Sulev Raik Fund manager, ESTONIA 12 years of CEE equity market experience

  18. Eastern Europe3:SEB Eeastern European Small Cap Fund Wojciech Rostworowski Fund manager, POLAND 15 years of CEE equity market experience

  19. SEB ÖsteuropafondBloomberg: SEBOSTE SS Piotr Sieradzan Fund manager, POLAND 6 years of CEE equity market experience

  20. Chinese-style growth with Scandinavian-style risks: SEB EE ex Russia Fund

  21. Why invest to the converging equity markets of New Europe? • Convergence is more than a date of EU entry, it is an ongoing process. Growth dynamics (of personal disposable income, for instance) is “anchored” by EU averages – provide both momentum and also better long-term macro visibility compared to traditional emerging markets • Scope for new EU members to see sustained medium term GDP growth of double “old” Europe growth rate • Efficiency improvements in companies as a result of know-how transfers and educated workforce • Tax + labor cost competitiveness • Massive inflows from EU Structural and Cohesion Fund in coming years to reimburse investments to infrastructure and environmental projects– one of the GDP growth drivers • Liquidity and transparency have dramatically improved as regional stock markets mature structurally – many new listings; local pension&mutual funds stronger; more small cap coverage by brokers; EU-compliant regulation etc.

  22. Strong GDP growth Source: EcoWin, European Commission Spring 2007 Forecast, SEB Nordic Outlook August 2007

  23. Economic growthBack to the future – you have already seen this 25 years ago

  24. Play EU convergence – China-style growth with Scandinavian-style risks! Selling Proposition Your Value Added Diversification relative to developed markets Limited risk compared to “true” emerging markets Less risk compared to funds targeting only one country in the region More exposure to domestic macro rather than to global themes Increased probability of future performance • Invests in strongly growing economies in Balkans, Baltics and Central Europe • Focus on EU & Euro convergence themes • Geographically well-diversified pan-regional fund • Defensively biased – financials dominate, limited exposure to commodities and materials • Not benchmark-driven, but active & dynamic management style

  25. Bumpy road to Monetary Union *Referring to the period April 06 to March 07 Source: ECB Convergence report May 07 25

  26. Underweight mainstream, seek opportunities out of benchmark (August 31)

  27. Sample pick: Erste Bank – CEE financial powerhouse • Central European and Balkan financial powerhouse with strong presence in Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Romania and Ukraine • Core strengths – retail leadership combined with wealth management What makes us excited? • Very low valuation - 2008E P/B 1,7 and P/E 11,7 with EPS growing 20-25% in coming years and ROE close to 20% by 2009 • Market is too sceptical on Romania what is still very “underbanked” and may be a trigger for the stock • Cyclical recovery in Austrian market • Management has strong track record of crossborder expansion and delivering on targets Watch out for • Economic slowdown in the region • Regulatory issues such as lending restrictions

  28. Thoughts on mid-term market outlook Potential positives Potential negatives Local macro Global macro Valuation Flows M&A • High & steady growth in coming years; efficiency gains in companies • Global growth providing no major disappointments; commodities stay stable • With average P/Es in mid-teens, most of large caps still look reasonably valued • Local mutual and pension funds increasingly influential • Boom continues as balance sheets healthy • Baltics overheated; expected improvement in Hungary and Turkey does not materialize • Rising USD&EUR interest rates; less liquidity; deteriorating risk appetite; significantly higher oil prices • P/B has been rising (>2); some small caps very aggressively valued • Foreign investors may prefer other emerging markets • Too many IPOs & SPOs

  29. Eastern Europe3: SEB EE Small Cap Fund

  30. Why Eastern European Small Caps? • Eastern Europe3 – general Eastern European story, leveraged • More growth • More benefits from structural change • More exposure to development of domestic financial markets • Less efficient valuation of equities = more opportunities • SEB ready to benefit due to • Truly local team • Local languages • Contacts to local brokers • Focused on bottom-up stock selection • Active investment management

  31. Small certainly can be beautiful

  32. Portfolio as of August 31A very different composition vs traditional Eastern European indices

  33. Sample pick: Amrest – leading restaurant operator in CEE region • AmRest is the second largest quick serviceand casual dining restaurant operator in Polandand in other countries fromCEE. The companyoperates a networkof243 restaurants in Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria and Russia. What makes us excited? • Amrest is a truegrowth story in otherwise defensive sector. The companystrives opening 100 restaurants annually, which translates into tripling sales by 2009. • Ambitious strategy to run two new brands: Burger King and Starbucks and to expand on the markets of the whole CEE region • Recently Amrest acquired a Pizza Nord, which operates 22 KFC and 19 Pizza Hut restaurants in Russia. Further expansion in Russia planned. • Booming domestic consumption in Poland and other countries of the region to support strong growth ambitions Watch out for • The expansion on CEE and CIS restaurantmarkets may slow down • The profitability may be hit by higher costs related to wages, rental expenses

  34. Sample pick: Rambler Media – largest Russian web portal • 280m Russian speaking people globally, 145m in Russia • Internet penetration has reached 25% (European average 40%) • Russia will have largest number of internet users in Europe by 2010 What makes us excited? • Largest Russian multi-service internet portal worldwide • 62% of internet users in Russia regularly visit rambler.ru - 23.8 million unique users and 1.8 billion page views every month. • Internet ad market expected to grow threefold to $500m/year by 2011and more than fivefold to $850m/year by 2014 • EBITDA margin to exceed35% in 2009 Watch out for • Competition from local integrated media and international companies (but go visit www.yahoo.ru too ...) Rambler.ru – yahoo of Russia

  35. Thank you! Sven Kunsing Head of Eastern European Investment Management sven.kunsing@seb.ee +372 6656 645

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