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The Super Safety Net of Safe Harbor. Peter Cincotta Office of Accountability, Research, and Testing Baltimore County Public Schools. Objectives. Overview of No Child Left Behind (NCLB) accountability process in Maryland

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the super safety net of safe harbor

The Super Safety Net of Safe Harbor

Peter Cincotta

Office of Accountability, Research, and Testing

Baltimore County Public Schools

objectives
Objectives
  • Overview of No Child Left Behind (NCLB) accountability process in Maryland
  • Explanation of Safe Harbor process and how it fits into the determination of Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP).
  • Share some interesting findings on the proficiency rates needed to make AYP through Safe Harbor.
adequate yearly progress
Adequate Yearly Progress
  • NCLB provides flexibility to states in many areas of the law.
  • The Maryland Department of Education (MSDE) has taken advantage of these areas.
safe harbor
Safe Harbor

The principle behind Safe Harbor is to recognize subgroups (and/or schools) that demonstrate a significant increase in achievement even if the achievement does not reach the level of the Annual Measurable Objective (AMO).

safe harbor6
Safe Harbor

AMO – 53.6%

40.3%

15%

safe harbor7
Safe Harbor
  • The rule is:
    • The percentage of students scoring in the basic category (the “basic rate”) must decrease by 10% from the previous year.
safe harbor8
Safe Harbor
  • Example
  • In 2004 the Special Education subgroup for Mathematics at Ann M. Wells Elementary had a proficiency rate of 8.0%.
  • Therefore, this subgroup had a basic rate of 92.0%. (100.0% – 8.0% = 92.0%)
  • This basic rate must decrease by 10%.
safe harbor9
Safe Harbor
  • 10% of 92.0 is 9.2
    • That is: 10% X 92.0 = 9.2
  • Therefore, the basic rate must decrease by 9.2 percentage points.
    • 92.0 - 9.2 = 82.8 .
  • A basic rate of 82.8% would be a proficiency rate of 17.2%.
    • 100.0% - 82.8% = 17.2%
safe harbor10
Safe Harbor

40.3%

AMO – 53.6%

15%

safe harbor11
Safe Harbor

Ann M. Wells Elementary School

2005 AYP Mathematics

AMO – 53.6%

40.3%

17.2% - Safe Harbor Proficiency Rate target

15%

8% - Proficiency rate last year

slide12

But wait.

There’s more!

safe harbor13
Safe Harbor
  • MSDE asked for and received permission to use a confidence interval around the Safe Harbor Proficiency Rate target
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Safe Harbor
  • The length of a confidence interval is dependent on the size of the subgroup.
  • Large subgroups produce small confidence intervals
  • Small subgroups produce large confidence intervals
confidence intervals
Confidence Intervals

Small groups have larger confidence intervals

Large groups have smaller confidence intervals

AMO is 43.8%

safe harbor16
Safe Harbor
  • Let’s say there are 100 Special Education students among grades 3, 4, and 5 at the Ann M. Wells Elementary school.
safe harbor17
Safe Harbor

Ann M. Wells Elementary School

2005 AYP Mathematics

AMO – 53.6%

11.0% is the lower end of the Safe Harbor CI with a subgroup size of 100 students and a proficiency rate of 8% last year.

40.3%

17.2% - Safe Harbor Proficiency Rate target

15%

8% - Proficiency rate last year

safe harbor18
Safe Harbor
  • Therefore, this subgroup made AYP through the Safe Harbor provision
  • To recap, this proficiency rate was:
    • Lower than the AMO,
    • Lower than the lower end of the (AMO) CI,
    • Higher than last year’s proficiency rate, and
    • Higher than the lower end of the Safe Harbor CI.
safe harbor19
Safe Harbor
  • Two strings attached
    • “All Students” must make AYP in the same subject of the Safe Harbor subgroup
    • “Other Academic Area” must improve over last year for the Safe Harbor subgroup.
safe harbor20
Safe Harbor

Ann M. Wells Elementary School

2005 AYP Mathematics

AMO – 53.6%

Notice how close the lower end of the Safe Harbor CI is to last year’s proficiency rate.

40.3%

15%

8% - Proficiency rate last year

safe harbor22
Safe Harbor
  • Under some circumstances, a very small increase in the proficiency rate would be enough to make AYP through Safe Harbor.
  • Under some circumstances, even flat achievement or a decrease in the proficiency rate would be “enough” to make AYP through Safe Harbor.
safe harbor26
Safe Harbor
  • Note that Safe Harbor is determined based on two data points:
    • Proficiency rate last year, and
    • Subgroup size this year.

The AMO is not part of the calculation.

contact information

Contact Information

Peter Cincotta

Office of Accountability, Research, and Testing

1940 Greenspring Drive

Timonium , Maryland 21093

(410 ) 887 – 7755 , ext. 209

Fax (410 ) 561 – 5769

E-mail [email protected]

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