Climate information and agricultural risk management l.jpg
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 14

Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 54 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management. T. A. Crane *, C. Roncoli*, N. E. Breuer+, J. O. Paz*, K. T. Ingram#, K. Broad+, G. Hoogenboom* * University of Georgia, + University of Miami, # University of Florida . A Systemic Approach to Understanding Farmers’ Decision-Making.

Download Presentation

Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Climate information and agricultural risk management l.jpg

Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management

T. A. Crane*, C. Roncoli*, N. E. Breuer+, J. O. Paz*,

K. T. Ingram#, K. Broad+, G. Hoogenboom*

* University of Georgia, + University of Miami, # University of Florida

A Systemic Approach to Understanding Farmers’ Decision-Making


Outline l.jpg

Outline

  • Research methods and setting

  • Interactions with weather and climate information systems

  • Potential adaptive strategies

  • Challenges to forecast use

  • Farmers’ suggestions for usability


Methods and research setting l.jpg

Methods and Research Setting

  • Sample: 38 farmers

  • Sites: 21 counties in South Georgia

  • Methods: Semi-structured interviews

    • Weather and climate information systems

    • Climate variability and risk mgmt. strategies

    • Potential adaptations


Methods and research setting4 l.jpg

Methods and Research Setting

  • Sample: 38 farmers

  • Sites: 21 counties in South Georgia

  • Methods: Semi-structured interviews

  • Mixed production systems

  • Avg. 2 per operation


Weather climate info sources l.jpg

Weather & Climate Info Sources

  • Daily use, often accessed multiple times

    • Spraying

    • Planting

    • Irrigation

  • Confidence low beyond 3-5 days

  • Wives & children are often internet users; information gateways


Weather climate info sources6 l.jpg

Weather & Climate Info Sources

  • Passive exposure to climate forecasts

  • 90-day forecasts not used in agric. decisions

    • “Conversation piece”

    • “Peace of mind”

  • Collective credibility


Adaptive management options l.jpg

Adaptive Management Options

  • Cropping strategy

    • Corn or cotton ?

    • Dry land corn ?

    • Soil : crop : forecast ?

  • Forward contracts ?

  • Planting schedule

    • Dry year pine planting ?

    • Late frost risk ?


Adaptive management options8 l.jpg

Adaptive Management Options

Forecast Use: Irwin County

Spring 2006 forecast for summer drought  widespread shift from long- to short-cycle peanut variety


Non climate variables as management drivers l.jpg

Non-Climate Variables as Management Drivers

  • Agronomic requirements

  • Commodity prices

  • Insurance constraints

  • Input prices

  • Credit options

  • Policy environment

    • Price supports

    • Trade policies

    • Immigration laws

Relative uncertainty of forecasts compared to non-climate variables = competition as mgmt. driver


Challenges to farmers use of forecasts l.jpg

Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts

  • Discrepancy in scales of forecasts & decisions

    • Temporal

    • Spatial

  • Inexperience with climate forecasts

    • Unawareness of potential

    • Skepticism of accuracy

  • Discrepancy in understandings of key concepts

    • Probability

    • Accuracy


Challenges to farmers use of forecasts11 l.jpg

Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts

  • Difficulty in processing additional information

    • Time

    • Mental energy

  • Inflexibility of highly-capitalized operations

    • Indebtedness

    • Infrastructural investments

    • Large acreage

  • Potential for actors to leverage info over farmers

    • Lenders

    • Insurers

    • Brokers


Facilitating appropriate use of climate based dss l.jpg

Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

  • Create recognizable identity for DSS

    • “Show the people behind it”

    • Association with land-grant university

  • Communication

    • Use lay-users’ language

    • “Show you understand what it means to be a farmer”

    • Layer information for different users

  • Cultivate habitual reference to site

    • Regular outreach

    • Keep information updated


Facilitating appropriate use of climate based dss13 l.jpg

Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

  • Enable users to evaluate forecasts

    • Publish forecast history

    • Publish forecast performance records

    • Explain probability upfront

  • Integrate users’ feedback into product development and assessment


Questions l.jpg

Questions?

www.agclimate.org

http://secc.coaps.fsu.edu/

This research was

supported by funding from

NOAA

USDA-RMA

USDA-CSREES


  • Login