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Targeting home fire safety checks. Andy Mobbs - London Fire Brigade Risk Information Team. February 2008. Reducing accidental fires in the home. Modernisation of the fire service put clear focus on prevention as well as response Strategy for HFSVs started in 2003

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targeting home fire safety checks

Targeting home fire safety checks

Andy Mobbs - London Fire Brigade Risk Information Team

February 2008

reducing accidental fires in the home
Reducing accidental fires in the home
  • Modernisation of the fire service put clear focus on prevention as well as response
  • Strategy for HFSVs started in 2003
  • Yearly target of approx 65,000 visits
  • With 3.5 million homes in London and around 6,500 fires in the home, visits must be effectively targeted to reduce risks
    • 3.25 percent of homes visited to date
problems with targeting where
Problems with targeting – where
  • Incident locations vary year-to-year
    • Accidental dwelling fires for Southwark 2005, 2006 & 2007
problems with targeting who
Problems with targeting – who
  • CLG ‘at risk groups’ defined from those fires that cause greatest harm
  • Broad descriptions cannot easily be translated into ‘real people’
    • Older people
    • Children and young people
    • Ethnic minorities or faith groups
    • People with learning or physical disabilities
    • People with alcohol or drug use problems
    • People with mental illness
    • People in poor housing
  • Develop a risk model that combines our incident data with what we know about people, their society and their environment in such a way that we can predict the ‘real’ level of risk (incident likelihood)
  • Use consumer profiling to describe (and locate) ‘at risk groups’ by lifestyle
  • ….which we call iRAT
what is irat
What is iRAT?
  • An Incident Risk Analysis Toolkit
  • A statistical approach to analysing the occurrence of incidents
  • A way of combining data about incidents, people, society and geography
  • Prioritising households by lifestyles
  • A systematic way to deliver prevention activities in the areas of highest likelihood to those who experience incidents most often
what is mosaic
What is Mosaic?
  • A commercially available consumer profiling database
  • “Its comprehensive analysis of citizens at postcode and household level provides deep insight into the socio-demographics, lifestyles, culture and behaviour of UK citizens”
  • Detailed lifestyle profiles together with preferences for marketing communications
  • “Additionally, it provides a ‘common currency’ that enables the same citizen to be viewed in the same way by all public bodies, supporting joined-up government and partnership working”
comparing mosaic groups with accidental fires in the home
Comparing Mosaic groups with accidental fires in the home
  • Previous targeting has focused on what we have learnt about fire death and injury
  • But this targets the consequence of fire and not necessarily those who are most at risk of a fire occurring
  • Less is known about those who experience fire but are not harmed by it
  • Approximation using consumer profiling
  • More complete profile of people that does not focus on one single factor
    • Age or ethnicity or deprivation
analysing accidental dwelling fires using mosaic1
Analysing accidental dwelling fires using Mosaic

Under representation

Over representation

comparing mosaic groups
Group F -“People who are struggling to achieve rewards and are mostly reliant on the council for accommodation and benefits”

Key Features - Families, many young children; Low incomes; Heavy watchers of TV

Receptive to - TV; Telemarketing; Leaflets, Posters; Red top newspapers

Comparing Mosaic groups

Group E - “Young, single and mostly well-educated, these people are cosmopolitan in tastes and liberal in attitudes”

Key Features - Young singles, few children; Full time students/Professionals; Open-minded

Receptive to - Internet; Leaflets, Posters; Telephone advice lines; Magazines, Broadsheets

taking the work forward
Taking the work forward
  • Accessibility of mapped data
    • Priority postcode data
  • Mistrust of statistics
  • Confusion between ‘at risk’, ‘prevalence vs. proportions’ and ‘risk reduction’
  • Need to refine Mosaic by using type analysis
  • Applying Mosaic to other incident types
contact details

Contact details

London Fire Brigade Risk Information Team

Andy Mobbs 020 8555 1200 [email protected]

Paul Eady 020 8555 1200 [email protected]

Riana Smit 020 8555 1200 [email protected]