USFWS’ Arctic Strategy: Managing Fish and Wildlife Populations in a Changing Landscape

1. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service USFWS’ Arctic Strategy: Managing Fish and Wildlife Populations in a Changing Landscape SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting October 28-30, 2008

2. FWS and Climate Change Our mission is working with others to conserve, protect, and enhance fish, wildlife, and plants and their habitats for the continuing benefit of the American people. • Science Challenge – Translating model projections into predictions of effects on trust resources • Management Challenge –Managing for change • No longer business (conservation, protection, enhancement) as usual

3. FWS and Climate Change • Strategic Plan – Responding to Climate Change • Adaptation, Mitigation and Education • 5-Year Action Plan – toward implementing the Strategic Plan • National Fish and Wildlife Adaptation Strategy • FY09-10 Action Items – building capacity for responding to climate change • Conservation planning and design, modeling, research and monitoring

4. Integration with SEARCH Responding to Change • Help identify useful predictive information and products: • Identify physical processes relevant to habitat availability and suitability • Identify appropriate modeling scales • Identify key areas of uncertainty

5. Shallow Lake (< 1.5 m) Lacustrine Marsh (Carex) Moist Sedge- Shrub

6. Coastal Barrens – Tidal/Deltaic Coastal Barrens – Salt-killed Riverine Tall Alder-Willow Shrub Coastal Wet Sedge Riverine Sedge, Low/Dwarf Shrub Riverine Barrens BIRDS -- Summer Climate Solar Radiation Precipitation Temperature Physical Processes Hydrologic Water Balance Surface storage Permafrost  Thermokarst Active layer Coastal Erosion  Storm frequency Sea-level rise Freshwater Terrestrial Marine Riverine Waters Moist Sedge- Shrub Coastal Water – Lagoon Deep Lake (> 1.5m) Wet Sedge Habitat Availability/ Suitability Shallow Lake (< 1.5 m) Tussock Tundra Lacustrine Marsh (Arctophila) Shrubby Tussock Tundra Lacustrine Marsh (Carex) Low Birch- Willow Shrub

7. Coastal Barrens – Tidal/Deltaic Coastal Barrens – Salt-killed Riverine Tall Alder-Willow Shrub Coastal Wet Sedge Riverine Sedge, Low/Dwarf Shrub Riverine Barrens BIRDS -- Summer Climate Solar Radiation Precipitation Temperature Physical Processes Hydrologic Water Balance Surface storage Permafrost  Thermokarst Active layer Coastal Erosion  Storm frequency Sea-level rise Freshwater Terrestrial Marine Riverine Waters Moist Sedge- Shrub Coastal Water – Lagoon Deep Lake (> 1.5m) Wet Sedge Habitat Availability/ Suitability Shallow Lake (< 1.5 m) Tussock Tundra Lacustrine Marsh (Arctophila) Shrubby Tussock Tundra Lacustrine Marsh (Carex) Low Birch- Willow Shrub

8. Arctic Strategy Goals and Objectives • Focus on Terrestrial Arctic Landscape • Identify Information Gaps • Collect critical data • Identify Priority Species • Develop Models • Impacts to Arctic fish and wildlife • Decision support tools for management • Collaborate and build partnerships

9. Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change(WildREACH) Workshop in Fairbanks: 17-18 November 2008

10. Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change Advance development of models that predict changes in habitat availability and suitability.

11. Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change Identify critical research, modeling, and synthesis activities: • Species attributes that are expected to be sensitive indicators of predicted habitat change. • Areas of uncertainty in physical and chemical process models that most impede our ability to predict the response of fish, wildlife, and their habitats.

13. WildREACH Workshop Structure Plenary presentations by “Consulting Specialists” in climate, permafrost, hydrology, plant community ecology, and ecological modeling will present summaries of observational and modeling results.

14. Changing conditions in winter: Sep - May Snow depth,  density,  Icing events positive Energetic balance negative H1 H1 H2 H2 H3 H3 H4 H4 C2 C4  Precipitation Warmer Shorterseason Plants Changes in communities; Early plant emergence Access to food Loss of shelter natal nests/dens Early den emergence  Insulation   Juv. mortality Herbivores Carnivores C1 C1 C2 C4 More mammals Fewer mammals

15. WildREACH Workshop Structure Working Groups (birds, fish, and mammals) will take part in breakout sessions to identify potential indicator species, develop conceptual models for climate influences on species groups, and identify critical research/modeling data gaps.

16. WildREACH Workshop Structure Consulting Specialists will remain present to interact informally with fish and wildlife biologists in breakout sessions.

17. WildREACH Workshop Product Peer-reviewed report articulating the most urgent information needs and tasks needed to build capacity to predict climate-related impacts to fish and wildlife populations in the Arctic.

18. Arctic Strategy Partnerships Resource Management Agencies: BLM, NPS, ADFG, NSB, MMS Fish and Wildlife Service Trust Resources Research Community: USGS, NSSI, NSF, NGOs, UAF, SEARCH Habitat Change Physical and Chemical Processes

19. Arctic Strategy Partnerships Department of Interior Initiatives • WILDCAST (USGS/NPS) • Arctic Network Inventory and Monitoring Program (NPS) • North Slope Science Initiative (multi-agency)

20. Integration with SEARCH Observing Change • Agency biological monitoring and inventory programs (e.g., species composition and distribution) can feed data into SEARCH framework.

21. Integration with SEARCH Understanding Change • Contribute to development of model frameworks that link landscape changes to ecosystem attributes (fish and wildlife population, phenology, migration patterns).

22. Integration with SEARCH Responding to Change • Help identify useful predictive information and products: • Identify physical processes relevant to habitat availability and suitability • Identify appropriate modeling scales • Identify key areas of uncertainty