patrick j ayd and joshua w scheck noaa national weather service bismarck nd
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20 May 2009 HeatBurst Across South Central North Dakota

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Patrick J. Ayd and Joshua W. Scheck NOAA/National Weather Service – Bismarck, ND. 20 May 2009 HeatBurst Across South Central North Dakota. Outline. How rare are heat bursts? Ingredients for a heat burst? Review of the 20 May 2009 Heat Burst Significance in operations. How Rare Are They?.

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Presentation Transcript
outline
Outline
  • How rare are heat bursts?
  • Ingredients for a heat burst?
  • Review of the 20 May 2009 Heat Burst
  • Significance in operations
how rare are they
How Rare Are They?
  • In order for a heat burst to be noticed it either has to be reported by a spotter, or seen within surface observational data.
    • How often do spotters not report weather phenomena?
    • Would you notice a rapid rise in temperature at a non ASOS site?
how rare are they1
How Rare Are They?
  • Dependent on the density of the observational network, and actually having the phenomena pass over the sensors.
  • Do we actively seek to find a heat burst?
how rare are they2
How Rare Are They?
  • The rarity of a heat burst may be due in large part to our inability to sense microscale events and properly analyze all data sources to acknowledge their presence.
heat burst
Heat Burst
  • Ingredients:
    • High LCL
    • Large subcloud dewpoint depression
    • Shallow nocturnal inversion – How shallow?
    • Cumulonimbus cloud/Downdraft initiation
heat burst 7 miles south of st anthony
Heat Burst 7 Miles South of St. Anthony
  • 235 am CDT 20 May 2009
  • Two thermometers in spotter’s yard read 90.5 and 95.6 respectively.
  • 8 foot corral doors blown 25 ft from their rail road ties
significance
Significance
  • How does this play into operations?
significance1
Significance
  • Low POD, High FAR for any attempts at High Wind Warnings.
  • Best served by Nowcasts, SPS and AFDs
    • Be sure to include inherent uncertainty in the timing, location and severity of the event.
  • Can we tell the difference between a shallow inversion that can be displaced and one that cannot?
questions
Questions
  • Thank You
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