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JUAN IGNACIO LÓPEZ MORENO SERGIO M. VICENTE SERRANO DPT. PROCESOS GEOAMBIENTALES Y CAMBIO GLOBAL

PROYECCIONES CLIMÁTICAS DE UN CONJUNTO DE MODELOS CLIMÁTICOS REGIONALES (RCMS) PARA EL PIRINEO: ANÁLISIS DE INCERTIDUMBRE E IMPACTOS ESPERADOS. JUAN IGNACIO LÓPEZ MORENO SERGIO M. VICENTE SERRANO DPT. PROCESOS GEOAMBIENTALES Y CAMBIO GLOBAL INSTITUTO PIRENAICO DE ECOLOGÍA, C.S.I.C.

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JUAN IGNACIO LÓPEZ MORENO SERGIO M. VICENTE SERRANO DPT. PROCESOS GEOAMBIENTALES Y CAMBIO GLOBAL

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  1. PROYECCIONES CLIMÁTICAS DE UN CONJUNTO DE MODELOS CLIMÁTICOS REGIONALES (RCMS) PARA EL PIRINEO: ANÁLISIS DE INCERTIDUMBRE E IMPACTOS ESPERADOS JUAN IGNACIO LÓPEZ MORENO SERGIO M. VICENTE SERRANO DPT. PROCESOS GEOAMBIENTALES Y CAMBIO GLOBAL INSTITUTO PIRENAICO DE ECOLOGÍA, C.S.I.C.

  2. STUDY OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE IN PYRENEES - IT REMAINED UNSTUDIED - COMPLEX AREA FOR REPRODUCING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS: GOOD TEST FOR RCMS - IT IS A VALUABLE ECOLOGICAL SITE - POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AND WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY OBJECTIVE: -TO ASESS THE POSSIBLE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS -TO ANALYSE THE MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL PATTERNS OF EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN PYRENEES -TO CONDUCT IMPACT ANALYSIS 6 RCMS FROM PRUDENCE PROJECT: DMI, HC, METNO, ICTP, SMHI, UCM

  3. 1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD 1.1 CREATION OF LAYERS OF REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES (1961-1990) FROM LOCAL OBSERVATIONS: Precip., Tmax., Tmin.,Tavg. At annual and seasonal basis Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) ANNUAL PRECIPITATION MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

  4. REFERENCE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION ANNUAL PRECIPITATION MODELLED BY RCMS REFERENCE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE MODELLED BY RCMS 1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD 1.2 COMPARISON OF RCMSCONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES

  5. 1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD 1.2 COMPARISON OF CONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES Annual precipitation Annual temperature

  6. 1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD 1.2 COMPARISON OF CONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES DJF MAM JJA SON

  7. 1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD 1.2 COMPARISON OF CONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES

  8. Change in annual temperature (A2) Change in annual precipitation (A2) 2. MAGNITUDE OF THE PROJECTED CHANGES COMPARISON OF CONTROL AND A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS RUNS IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CLIMATECHANGE

  9. 2. MAGNITUDE OF THE PROJECTED CHANGES COMPARISON OF CONTROL AND A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS RUNS IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CLIMATECHANGE Change precipitation (A2) Change in temperature (A2) DJF MAM JJA SON

  10. 2. MAGNITUDE OF THE PROJECTED CHANGES COMPARISON OF CONTROL AND A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS RUNS IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CLIMATECHANGE

  11. MAM DJF SON JJA N 3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS 3.2 PRECIPITATION INTENSITY

  12. 3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS MAM DJF JJA SON N 3.1 PRECIPITATION INTENSITY

  13. 1960-1990 (63.975km2) 2070-2100 B2 (39.900 km-2) 2070-2100 A2 (32.625 km-2) Expected change on surface with positive annual climatic water balance (mm): 1960/1990 → 2070/2100 3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS 3.2 CLIMATIC WATER BALANCE

  14. 3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS Observed climate Modified climate 3.3 Snow accumulation A2 scenario, central Pyrenees at 2060 m a.s.l

  15. 3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS 3.3 Snow accumulation A2 scenario, central Pyrenees at 2060 m a.s.l Date of MSWE (days) Duration of snowpack (days) MSWE (mm)

  16. 3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS Projected change (HIRHAM model) in snow accumulation in the Pyrenees for B2 and A2 emission scenarios SRES B2 SRES A2 32 % 70 % 1500 m 18 % 46 % 2000 m 8 % 22% 2500 m 8% 5 % 11 % 3000 m 5 % 3.3 Snow accumulation

  17. 3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS 3.3 Snow accumulation Projected change (HIRHAM model) in snowpack duration in the Pyrenees for B2 and A2 emission scenarios SRAS B2 SRAS A2 78 % 44 % 1500 m 20 % 49 % 2000 m 14 % 23 % 2500 m 11 % 10 % 3000 m

  18. FUTURE RESEARCH To use transient RCMs at higher spatial resolution (ENSEMBLES and ACQWA projects) Potential impacts of climate change on water resources availability (hydrological modelling)

  19. More information in….. -López-Moreno, J.I., Goyette, S. and Beniston M. (2008).Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability of uncertainties and expected changes over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology 28 (11): 1535-1550. -López-Moreno, J.I., Goyette, S., Beniston, M., Alvera, B. (2008). Sensitivity of the snow energy balance to climatic changes: implications for the evolution of snowpack in the Pyrenees in the 21st century. Climate Research 36: 206-217. -López-Moreno, J.I.,García-Ruiz, J.M. and Beniston, M. (2008). Environmental Change and water management in the Pyrenees. Facts and future perspectives for Mediterranean mountains. Global and Planetary Change 66 (3-4): 300-312. -López-Moreno, J.I. and Beniston, M. (en prensa).Daily intensity precipitation for the 21st century: seasonal changes over an Atlantic-Mediterranean gradient in the Pyrenean mountains. Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

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