1 / 52

The Rug Rat Race

The Rug Rat Race. By Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey. Introduction. After trending downward for three decades, time spent in childcare in the U.S. began to increase dramatically in the mid-1990s.

gilon
Download Presentation

The Rug Rat Race

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Rug Rat Race By Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey

  2. Introduction • After trending downward for three decades, time spent in childcare in the U.S. began to increase dramatically in the mid-1990s. • Existing explanations (selection, income effects, safety concerns, enjoyment, work schedules) cannot explain the trends. • We present a new explanation for the sharp run-up in childcare time: Increased competition for college admission has led to a “Rug Rat Race” • We show that childcare time did not change much in Canada, where competition for college admission is much less than in the U.S.

  3. Documenting the Trends We use 12 U.S. time use surveys to study how time spent in childcare has changed from 1965 to 2007. We use 4 Canadian time use surveys from 1986 to 2005.

  4. Notes on Comparability • 1965, 1975, 1985, 1998, 2000 are the most comparable because they were all conducted by John Robinson using similar questions. • Comparability of other studies: • Allard, Bianchi, Stewart and Wight (2007) study this in the • Monthly Labor Review. They conclude: • 1992-94 (“1993”) undercounts many activities, such as childcare • 2003 BLS survey is comparable to surveys from 1965-1985 in • the measurement of primary childcare

  5. Defining Childcare: Total Childcare Basic childcare, helping, organizing activities for, teaching to, talking, reading, playing with, medical care, dealing with day care providers, travel related to childcare The BLS study distinguishes household and nonhousehold children. We include both. We will also study subcategories of childcare.

  6. Estimation Details Samples: (ages 18-64 excluding students) “Mother” and “Father” are defined as having a child under 18 in the household. Use survey weights adjusted so that a representative individual in 1965 has equal weight to a representative individual in 2007.

  7. Estimation Details - continued Controls Baseline: year of survey, parent age controls (dummies for 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64), college education Additional controls (available in 1975, 2000, 2003 - 2007): marital status, quadratic in the number of children dummy for age of youngest: infant (age <=1) toddler (age=2) preschool (2 < age < 6) elementary1 (6 <= age <10) elementary2 (10 <= age < 14) teen ( 14 <= age < 18)

  8. Weekly Childcare by Mothers Control variables are dummies for age categories. Omitted category is age 25-34, less than college education. Red denotes p-value of 0.05 or less

  9. Weekly Childcare by Mothers(Ages 25-34)

  10. Weekly Childcare by Fathers Control variables are dummies for age categories. Omitted category is age 25-34, less than college education. Red denotes p-value of 0.05 or less

  11. Weekly Childcare by Fathers(Ages 25-34)

  12. Effects of Adding Additional ControlsIncrease in Childcare Time, Average 2003-2007 relative to 1975 The full set of controls includes: dummies for parent’s age, marital status, quadratic in the number of children, five dummy variables for age of youngest child.

  13. Childcare by Married Couples • Less-educated, married parents: • combined time spent in childcare is now 8 hours more per week than in 1975. • avg. # of children decreased from 2.22 to 1.97 • College-educated, married parents: • combined time spent in childcare is now 17 hours more per week than in 1975. • avg. # of children decreased from 2.27 to 1.89

  14. Trends in Categories of Childcare • What types of childcare have increased the most? • To ensure comparability, we use only the 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995, 1998, and 2000 time use surveys because they have: • Same activity codes • Allow reasonable controls, such as the number of young children

  15. Less-educated mothers College-educated mothers 4 4 2 2 hours per week hours per week 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 1965 1975 1985 1995 1965 1975 1985 1995 year year Types of Childcare Total:4.7 hours Educ: 1 hrs Play: 1.2 hrs Travel: 0.6 hrs Activities & travel Care of older children Care of young children play education

  16. Less-educated fathers College-educated fathers 3 3 2 2 1 1 hours per week hours per week 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 1965 1975 1985 1995 1965 1975 1985 1995 year year Types of Childcare Total:4.7 hours Educ: 1 hrs Play: 1.2 hrs Travel: 0.6 hrs Care of older children Activities & travel Care of young children play education

  17. Mothers with children under 5 yrs, 2007 Total:4.7 hours Educ: 1 hrs Play: 1.2 hrs Travel: 0.6 hrs

  18. Fathers with children under 5 yrs, 2007 Total:4.7 hours Educ: 1 hrs Play: 1.2 hrs Travel: 0.6 hrs

  19. Mothers with children 5 yrs and over, 2007 Total:4.7 hours Educ: 1 hrs Play: 1.2 hrs Travel: 0.6 hrs

  20. Fathers with children 5 yrs and over, 2007 Total:4.7 hours Educ: 1 hrs Play: 1.2 hrs Travel: 0.6 hrs

  21. Insight from Unequal Childhoods (2003) by Annette Lareau Ethnographic study that documents the dramatic differences in how educated parents raise their children compared to less-educated parents. Less-educated parents use “natural development” – unsupervised play with friends and relatives in neighborhood. College-educated parents use “concerted cultivation” - requires heavy parent involvement in time, supervising organized activities, etc. “Children’s activities create substantial work for their parents. Parents fill out enrollment forms, write checks, call to arrange car pools, wash uniforms, drive children to events, and make refreshments…. Simply getting ready for an activity – collecting the equipment, organizing the children, loading the car – can be exhausting…, in addition to the labor of preparing, there is the labor of watching.” (page 47)

  22. From where does the increase in time come? Less-educated mothers

  23. College-educated mothers

  24. Existing explanations for the rise in childcare • Sample selection • Income effects • Safety concerns • Enjoyment • More flexible work schedules

  25. 1. Sample Selection “Because parenthood is more of a choice now, those who decide to become parents are those who want to put more time into parenthood.” Test of hypothesis: Has childcare time changed when we average over the entire adult population, including nonparents?

  26. Test for Sample Selection

  27. 2. Income Effects “A positive childcare-income gradient might explain the increase in childcare over time as well as the difference by education level.” Test of hypothesis: Can the cross-sectional relationship between childcare time and household income explain the time trends?

  28. Pooled data from 2003-2007Full set of controls, including richer education dummies: high school dropout, college graduate, post-college.What is effect of household income on time spent in childcare after controlling for age, education, etc.?Can the 30 % ($21,000) increase in real household income since 1975 explain the increase in childcare?

  29. Mothers: Regression of Childcare Time On Household Income (income in thousands of $2007, childcare in hours per week)

  30. 3. Safety “Increased crime rates made parents afraid to allow children to play unsupervised in the neighborhood. They enrolled them in organized activities instead.” Violent Crime Rates

  31. Harris Poll, Reported by Safe Kids USA Violent Crime Rates

  32. 4. Enjoyment “Childcare is an enjoyable activity, and thus is much more like leisure than other home production activities.” • Counter-evidence: • In the Krueger, et al. surveys, basic childcare ranks below cooking and housework for women according to their unpleasantness index. • When we exclude playing with children from our childcare measures, the increase is somewhat smaller but still significant. The increase in play accounts for 3 of the 9 hour increase for college-educated mothers and 1 of the 4 hour increase for less-educated mothers.

  33. 5. More Flexible Work Schedules “Parents today have more flexible work schedules, so they can spend more time in childcare.” Change in time spent in childcare from 1975 to 2007 Hours per week

  34. Another Possible Explanation: The “Rug Rat Race” Could the increase in time spent in childcare be linked to the increased competition to get into college? • “The already crazed competition for admission to the nation’s most prestigious universities and colleges became even more intense this year, with many logging record low acceptance rates.” (New York Times, April 1, 2008) • “Attending the local public university is no longer a birthright. An explosion in applications has allowed the schools to reject students in record numbers.” (CollegeJournal from the Wall Street Journal, November 14, 2006) • “Middle- and upper-income families became engaged in an arms race with their neighbors to prepare their children for college (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, July 22, 2006)

  35. Increased Demand For College Slots in the U.S.

  36. Why Demand for College is Growing College Premium in Wages in U.S. Full-Time, Full-Year Workers, Ages 22-64 But the increase in the college wage premium leads to a trade-off for college educated parents. We will present a theory showing what assump req.

  37. College Slots are not Growing as Quickly as Demand

  38. Effect on Parents’ and Students’ Behavior American Academy of Pediatrics (2007): “ The college-admissions process has become much more rigorous in recent years, large because of a baby boom hitting the college years. Parents receive the message that if their children are not well prepared, well balanced, and high-achieving, they will not get a desired spot in higher education. Even parents who wish to take a lower-key approach to child rearing fear slowing down when they perceive everyone else is on the fast track. Children are encouraged to build a college resumethrough both academic excellence and a wide variety of activities and volunteer efforts starting at youngerages…The pressure for admission to select schools begins for some families long before college. Selection for private preschool programs can even be competitive, and parents may need to consider how best to ‘package’ their preschoolers.”

  39. Theory: Intuition • Higher-educated parents have a comparative advantage in investing in their children, but they also have a higher opportunity cost • When slots at first-tier colleges are relatively plentiful, the marginal slots are filled by children of less-educated parents • When first-tier slots become relatively scarce, rivalry for the marginal slots shifts to the better-educated parents • A “rug rat race” among these parents drives up both admissions requirements and the time spent on childcare

  40. Theory: Model Parent’s schooling: c college-educated, and l less-educated mc = # of college-educated parents, ml = # of less-educated parents m = mc + ml total number of parents h = time spent by parent on preparing child for college dl(h) = disutility cost to less-educated parents wdc(h) = disutility cost to college-educated parents, where w > 1 reflects the wage premium

  41. Model - continued Child’s ultimate wealth: wqh, where q is the quality of the college Parents choose h to maximize their children’s wealth net of their own time cost. Less-educated parent’s objective function: wqh – dl(h) College-educated parent’s objective function: wqh – wdc(h)

  42. Choice of College Preparation Higher curve (which denotes MC) is no college and lower curve is college. College educated mothers choose greater p given our assum.

  43. Model - continued k1 slots available at first-tier colleges k2m slots available at second-tier colleges with k1 + k2m < m wq1h = wealth if attend tier 1 college wq2h = wealth if attend tier 2 college wq0h = wealth if don’t attend college, q1 > q2 > q0 Colleges fill slots in descending order of h.

  44. Case with a Relative Abundance of 1st Tier Slots

  45. Case with a Relative Scarcity of 1st Tier Slots

  46. Time Paths of College PreparationEffect of rise in both college premium and # of high school graduates

  47. Comparison between U.S. and Canada • Canada and the U.S. share a great deal in terms of culture and sociology. If the source of the increase in childcare time in the U.S. is sociological, we would expect Canada to be subject to the similar influences. 2. However, the returns to college have increased more in the U.S. than in Canada. • Between 1980 and 2000, the college wage premium in Canada rose between 5 – 10 percentage points (Boudarbat, Lemieux, and Riddell (2006) • In the U.S., it rose more than 25 percentage points (Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008).

  48. Comparison between U.S. and Canada • The competition to get into college is completely different in Canada (Davies and Hammack (2005) U.S. higher education is very hierarchical. Public believes that where you go to college really matters. Competition on SATs, APs, high school activities Canada: no SATs, no hierarchy, more emphasis on major than college.

  49. Our Theory’s Prediction Time spent on childcare should have increased much less in Canada than in the U.S., particularly among the college-educated. To test this, we use the GSS 1986, 1992, 1998, and 2005.

More Related