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The approach of Peak Oil Bruce Robinson Convenor

The approach of Peak Oil Bruce Robinson Convenor. Look out !! Something serious is looming on the radar. ? ? ? ?. www.ASPO-Australia.org.au An Australia-wide network of professionals working to reduce oil vulnerability. ASPO-Australia Working groups Finance Sector Health Sector

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The approach of Peak Oil Bruce Robinson Convenor

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  1. The approach of Peak Oil Bruce Robinson Convenor Look out !! Something serious is looming on the radar ? ? ? ?

  2. www.ASPO-Australia.org.au An Australia-wide network of professionals working to reduce oil vulnerability ASPO-Australia Working groups Finance Sector Health Sector Social Services Sector Remote indigenous communities Active transport (bicycle & walking) Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Biofuels Urban and transport planning Oil & Gas industry Local Government sector Regional and city working groups Construction Industry Public transport sector Defence and Security Economics Tourism Young Professionals working group            Senate Inquiry into Australia's future oil supply and alternative transport fuels Feb 2007 Part of the international ASPO alliance  = Senate inquiry submission

  3. Peak Oil Outline What is Peak Oil ? the time when global oil production stops rising and starts its final decline We will never "run out of oil" "Peak Exports" is even more important, and sooner ● When is the most probable forecast date ? ? 2012 +/- 5 years ●Governments & industry should be preparing for Petrol Droughts & Peak Oil ● Conservation and demand management is very promising "exploring for Negabarrels of oil" ● Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management is important for all sectors, including the mining industry. but when? 2050 2010 1970 1930

  4. Hurricane Katrina New Orleans US Federal, State and local Governments were shown to be shortsighted, ill-prepared, uncaring and disorganised. Australian governments are much less organised for Peak Oil

  5. US oil peak 1970

  6. "A MIDDLE EAST VIEW OF THE GLOBAL OIL SITUATION" A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari National Iranian Oil Company May 2002 Major and inescapable trends The world's supergiant and giant oil fields are dying off  Even OPEC's oil production has its limits Global oil crunch at the horizon --- most probably within the present decade. "...It would take a number of miracles to thwart such a rational scenario.. A series of simultaneous miracles is not possible --for there are limits even to God Almighty's mercifulness". “Noah built his ark before it started raining” www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002

  7. Dr. Sadad I. Al Husseini, ex Saudi Aramco • Oil and Money Conference, London, October 30, 2007 Oil and NGL production have remained flat in spite of rising prices ...predict a 10 year plateau a structural ceiling determined by geology

  8. Monday October 22 2007 Fig. 7 Oil production world summary 2007

  9. Chris Skrebowski Editor, Petroleum Review, LondonThe practical realities • Worry aboutflows not reserves • "Deliverability" “It isn't the size of the tank; it’s the size of the tap” (ASPO-USA) "40 years reserves left at current production rates" ....This is a very misleading statement (ASPO-Aus)

  10. A simple observation -- or why peak will be earlier than most people expect ‘Global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding.’

  11. The real oil discovery trend Longwell, 2002

  12. Why are oil supplies peaking? • We are not finding oil fast enough • We are not developing fields fast enough • Too many fields are old and declining • 54 of 65 oil producing countries are in decline! • Oil supply will peak in 2010/2011 at around 92-94 million barrels/day • Oil supply in internationaltrade may peak earlier • Collectively we are still in denial

  13. Iran 10c/litre Venezuela 2c/l Jeff Rubin September 2007 Canadian Imperial Banking Corporation

  14. World Liquids Exports estimate to July 2007 “Peak Exports”occurs before “Peak Oil” from Oilwatch Monthly: ASPO-Netherlands Rembrandt Koppelaar forecast Rubin 2007

  15. APPEA April 2005 Perth Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association conference Eric Streitberg Executive Director ARC Energy Limited • Please put your hand up if you thinkthat we have crossed the Hubbert Peak • and hands up those who don’t? • Undecided • 1/3rd • 1/3rd • 1/3rd

  16. =1.3 EfT3 Australia uses 51,000,000,000 litres of oil each year a cube of about 370 metres size 80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transport If Australia’s 20 M tpa wheat crop → ethanol = 9% Perth’s Central Park building is 249 m high, to top of tower 100 ml of oil contains 1 kWh of energy. Enough to move a small car to the top of the Eiffel tower

  17. Million barrels/ day 2006 BP Statistical Review, 2007 Australia uses 0.9 China 7.4 US 20.6 World 83.7 US 1 cubic km oil / year 1 km l l China Australia United States

  18. Australia Actual Forecast } Consumption $12.5 billion 06/07 P50 Production

  19. Worldwide Crash Program Mitigation of Conventional Oil Production Peaking A Study for US DOE NETL Hirsch, Bezdek and Wendling, 2005 2005 Study 35 EOR Coal Liquids 25 Impact (MM bpd) Heavy Oil 15 GTL 5 Efficient Vehicles 0 0 5 10 15 20 Years After Crash Program Initiation Delay / Rapid growth. Roughly 35 MM bpd at year 20.

  20. COST AS A FUNCTION OF START TIME (Notional) Cost of Error Premature Start “It is also certain that the cost of preparing too early is nowhere near the cost of not being ready on time.” Alannah MacTiernan, 2004 Time - 20 Years Scenario III - 10 Years Scenario II Peaking Scenario I

  21. Mortgage and Oil Vulnerability in Perth at www.aspo-australia.org.au/content/view/120/55/

  22. Another analogy: The Canberra fire-storms of January 2003 destroyed over 400 houses, on the outer edge of the outer suburbs Reliable predictions had been ignored and there was no effective action to minimise the risks

  23. Oil shocks may well wipe out entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth and other cities with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.

  24. Oil shocks may well wipe out entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth and other cities with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.

  25. Oil shocks may well wipe out entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth and other cities with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.

  26. Oil shocks may well wipe out entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth and other cities with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.

  27. The outskirts of all Australian cities will be hard hit by oil depletion, as public transport infrastructure is very poor

  28. Gboe/pa World All Oil } Oil 2007 www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006

  29. www.ASPO-Australia.org.au Priorities 1: Awareness and engagement 2: Frugality 3: Efficiency Last: Alternative fuels Failure to act now will prove incredibly costly. Oil vulnerability assessment and risk managementis an important way of minimising exposure and maximising opportunities. Hint: Check your superannuation is not being invested into urban toll-roads, tunnels and airports. Bruce.Robinson@ASPO-Australia.org.au 0427 398 708 61-8-9384-7409

  30. a few more slides follow, in case they are needed for questions

  31. Australian Government Policy and Action Options 1: “Talk about it, Talk about it” 2. Engage people, “Participatory democracy” 3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight transport. 4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and disadvantage profligate users. Fuel taxes should be incrementally raised to European levels to reduce usage. 5: SmartCard tradable personal fuel allocation system. A flexible mechanism for short-term oil shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce their fuel usage.. 6. Concentrate on the psychological and social dimensions of automobile dependence, not just “technological fixes” 7. Implement nationwide "individualised marketing" travel demand management. 8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are better investments than more roads. 9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas supplies to food production, essential services and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card system. 10. Review the oil vulnerability of every industry and community sector and how each may reduce their risks. 11 Promote through the United Nations an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion, and a Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the declining oil among nations. An international tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is one hypothetical option.

  32. Bicycles are powered by biofuel, renewable energy, either Weetbix or abdominal fat No shortage of either www.ASPO-Australia.org.Au

  33. Gb/year Efficiency Demand Growth World oil shortfall scenarios Transport mode shifts Pricing / taxes City design/lifestyle Past Production of Oil Other petroleum fuels gas, tar-sands Other fuels Deprivation, war Forecast Production 2007 • no single “Magic Bullet” solution, • probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil • Urgent preparation and adjustment are vital

  34. Ghawar is Saudi Arabia's and the world's biggest oilfield If it is at peak, then global peak is probably very close Blue is water, green is water and oil mixed and red/purple is “dry” oil with little water in it

  35. Petrol taxes OECD € UK Au$ cents/litre Portugal 0.80 0.60 Australia 0.40 0.20 US 0.00 IEA Dec 2003

  36. The UK Fuel Tax Escalator Margaret Thatcher pence Nominal tax per litre (pence) 50 Real tax 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Australian fuel taxes should be raised to European levels on a fuel tax escalator

  37. } Oil 2007 Gboe/pa World All Oil www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006

  38. } Gas } Oil 2007 Gboe/pa World All Oil & Gas (gas at 10,000 cft=1bbl) www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006

  39. } Gb/year 50 Demand Trend World oil shortfall scenarios 40 Shortfall Past Production of Oil 30 20 Forecast Production 10 2007 2030 0 By 2030, the gap is equivalent to 6,000 nuclear reactors

  40. Urban passenger mode shares Australia Car High automobile-dependence Public transport share is very low Potterton BTRE 2003

  41. February 2004 By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce new oil and gas equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today.

  42. Australia US China

  43. EWG: Zittel & Schindler, LBST, October 2007

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