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UncertWeb overview

UncertWeb overview. Dan Cornford and the UncertWeb team Computer Science, Aston University, Birmingham, United Kingdom, UncertWeb Tools Workshop, 10 Jan 2013, Aston. The ‘Model Web’. Still currently more of a concept than a reality

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UncertWeb overview

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  1. UncertWeb overview Dan Cornford and the UncertWeb team Computer Science, Aston University, Birmingham, United Kingdom, UncertWeb Tools Workshop, 10 Jan 2013, Aston

  2. The ‘Model Web’ • Still currently more of a concept than a reality • simple idea: models and data become discoverable and accessible / executable via the web (using web services) • once models / data are exposed in this manner, then creating complex workflows becomes possible • very challenging from an interoperability point of view • UncertWeb focuses on the issue of uncertainty in such a setting • other projects are addressing semantics, e.g. ENVISION, EuroGEOSS, …

  3. The UncertWeb concept • The “model web” ... • When chaining services of limited or unknown quality, uncertainty must be accounted for if rational decisions are to be made. “UncertWeb develops mechanisms, standards, tools and test-beds for accountable uncertainty propagation in web service chains.”

  4. Uncertainty in Environmental Data and Models • UncertWeb adopts a probabilistic framework for managing uncertainty • the application use cases all emphasise this • focus on uncertainty of results given uncertainty on inputs (and model error) • established framework, infrastructure, tools and demonstrated on four application use cases • Not really developing new methods, but making existing methods web accessible

  5. Encodings: UncertML • Standards for coupling models under uncertainty • develops UncertML to provide complete probabilistic model for uncertainty • provides a Java and R API for using UncertML • UncertML is now a set of encodings and a dictionary • distributions • statistics • samples • UncertML is also integrated with O&M and NetCDF

  6. UncertWeb Architecture • Chaining and discovery under uncertainty • extend existing interoperability services to permit their use in the uncertainty-enabled model web • linking with the GEOSS (and EuroGEOSS) model web developments, add support for UncertML • implement a framework for uncertainty-enabled model web services • this is the CaaS concept • develop uncertainty-enabled OGC web services

  7. Tools for using UncertWeb • Tools for practical application of UncertWeb • support elicitation of uncertainty • spatio-temporal aggregation of uncertainties • communicating and visualising uncertainties • support uncertainty source contributions • improve speed using emulation • validation of probabilistic models

  8. Applying UncertWeb • Use cases for uncertainty propagation • biodiversity and climate change • land-use / crop yield response to climatic change • short term uncertainty-enabled forecasts for local air quality • individual activity in the environment The last two have been integrated to evaluate the ease of use of the UncertWeb services

  9. Workshop structure • Mostly lab / computer based, with exercises • visualisation • sensitivity analysis, emulation and validation • expert elicitation • There will be a leader for each session and lots of chance to talk • scripted exercises but feel free to go off piste! • some exercises are individual, some group

  10. Summary • UncertWeb has developed standards, profiles and implementations to create the uncertainty enabled model web • workflow composition and orchestration are challenging – some issues still to resolve • tools enable easy use – you are going to try these out • demonstrators across a range of applications The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° [248488].

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