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Tropical Transition: The Genesis of Tropical Cyclones from Extratropical Disturbances

Tropical Transition: The Genesis of Tropical Cyclones from Extratropical Disturbances. Christopher A. Davis National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado USA. Lance F. Bosart

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Tropical Transition: The Genesis of Tropical Cyclones from Extratropical Disturbances

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  1. Tropical Transition: The Genesis of Tropical Cyclones from Extratropical Disturbances Christopher A. Davis National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado USA Lance F. Bosart The University at Albany, SUNY Albany, New York USA Ron McTaggert-Cowan McGill University Montreal, Quebec Canada Collaborator: Michael Montgomery (Colorado State Univ., USA) 60th IHC

  2. Atlantic Genesis (1975-2005) Black = 1975-1993 Red = 1994-2005 60th IHC

  3. Bracken and Bosart (2000) Monthly Weather Review Shear exists in composite of developing depressions over Western Atlantic. 60th IHC

  4. Tropical Transition • Subtropical or Extra-tropical precursors • Cold-core upper tropospheric lows • Fronts • Mesoscale Convective Vortices • Initially cold-core (vorticity maximizes at 700 hPa or above) • May involve easterly waves • Relies on finite vertical wind shear • Diabatic-baroclinic development (strong precursor) • Organization of convection (weak precursor) 60th IHC

  5. Atlantic Tropical Transitions by Season (defined as having non-tropical origin) 60th IHC

  6. MM5 Simulation of Michael (2000) Potential Vorticity (PVU) and Wind on 340 K q Sfc. Sea-level Pressure Start: 00 UTC 15 Oct. 2000 End: 00 UTC 17 Oct. 2000 60th IHC

  7. MM5 Simulation of Hurricane Michael (2000) • Nested 12.3-km grid • Cold start from global analysis (NCEP) • 48-h integration • Kain-Fritsch CP • Blackadar PBL • Schultz Cloud Physics 60th IHC Davis and Bosart, 2003: Monthly Weather Review

  8. (a) (c) X X Erin Gabrielle Felix (d) (b) Erin X Gabrielle X Felix PV and Wind on 340 K Isentropic Surface 12 UTC 9 Sept 12 UTC 14 Sept 00 UTC 14 Sept 00 UTC 17 Sept 60th IHC

  9. 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00 1000 km Pre-Humberto Vortex IR Satellite Images 12Z 16 Sept. to 00Z 19 Sept. 2001 Vortex centroid location on 340 K sfc. Images obtained from http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sat_ir/ 340 K PV at 00 UTC 19 Sept. 60th IHC

  10. Control Wind Shift Line Area of PV Modification Modification of Wind Profile p1 z p2 y q sfc p3 x 60th IHC “Weak” PV

  11. Weak-PV Slower Development Without Shear CTRL simulation is initialized with more shear on flank of upper-tropospheric cold low Vorticity time-series Wind Profiles prior to convection CTRL: heavy Weak PV: thin U: solid V: dashed 60th IHC

  12. What About 2005? 60th IHC

  13. -0.25 0.0 0.25 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Tropopause Potential Temperature 900 hPa Potential Vorticity (PVU) 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 Franklin 60th IHC

  14. -0.25 0.0 0.25 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Tropopause Potential Temperature 900 hPa Potential Vorticity (PVU) 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 Harvey 60th IHC

  15. -0.25 0.0 0.25 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Tropopause Potential Temperature 900 hPa Potential Vorticity (PVU) 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 Maria 60th IHC

  16. -0.25 0.0 0.25 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Tropopause Potential Temperature 900 hPa Potential Vorticity (PVU) 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 Nate 60th IHC

  17. -0.25 0.0 0.25 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Tropopause Potential Temperature 900 hPa Potential Vorticity (PVU) 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 Katrina TT ? Rita 60th IHC

  18. -0.25 0.0 0.25 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 900 hPa Potential Vorticity (PVU) Emily Irene I T C Z ? Lee Beta 60th IHC

  19. Cindy Jose Wave Accumulation? dU/dx < 0 Stan 60th IHC

  20. Western Atlantic Genesis Issues • Large-scale influences (waves, troughs) • Mesoscale (MCSs, MCVs, fronts) • Convective scale (convective bursts, VHTs) • Numerical prediction capability • Critical observations? 60th IHC

  21. L WATTAGE Western Atlantic Tropical Transition and Genesis Experiment (2008) NCAR G-V NOAA G-IV NASA DC-8 (a) (c) (b) (d) 300-400 km NCAR C-130 NRL P-3 NOAA P-3 UAVs 100-200 km 60th IHC

  22. Conclusions Key Points about Tropical Transition • Vertical shear organizes convection => vorticity production • Convection decreases shear => warm core formation • TT can occur with easterly waves: issue is shear => upper trough, lower tropospheric mesoscale ascent General Points • Broad spectrum of genesis mechanisms, strong hints apparent in analyses • Wave genesis • TT • ITCZ • Multi-scale observations crucial for sorting out genesis mechanisms and improving prediction 60th IHC

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