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The decision will be made anyway – How can analysis help? “too late, we’ve already gone to print”

The decision will be made anyway – How can analysis help? “too late, we’ve already gone to print”. Keith Goodman Jason Field Dstl. Menu. Background Why evidence-based decision-making Context of MOD analysis SDSR Supporting decision-making Timing Push vs pull

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The decision will be made anyway – How can analysis help? “too late, we’ve already gone to print”

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  1. The decision will be made anyway – How can analysis help?“too late, we’ve already gone to print” Keith Goodman Jason Field Dstl

  2. Menu • Background • Why evidence-based decision-making • Context of MOD analysis • SDSR • Supporting decision-making • Timing • Push vs pull • Exploitation, Exploitation, Exploitation • Measurement • Next time…

  3. Analysis ... • The application of scientific methods to assist executive decision-makers • brings together • objectives, options and assumptions • data • expert judgement • examines their implicationsin an iterative way, in close collaboration with problem owner and other stakeholders … • … through the use of models

  4. Why does UK MOD do analysis? • UK Government aspires to evidence-based decision making • scientific evidence • HM Treasury delegates significant financial authority to MOD on the basis that processes are in place to ensure “good” decisions are made • independent scrutiny • The future is uncertain • multiple potential worlds & scenarios • Many decisions are complex and interdependent • models

  5. increasingly subjective increasingly uncertain data context Hierarchy of analysis Measures of Policy Effectiveness Strategy Measures of Force Effectiveness Force/ Campaign/Society Systems of Systems/ Operational/Groups Measures of System Effectiveness Systems/Tactical/Individuals Measures of Performance Dimensional Parameters Physical/Physiological Processes

  6. Published 3 Feb 2010 Accompanied by Future Character of Conflict Global Strategic Trends To publicly open the debate ahead of the anticipated Defence Review Where should we set the balance between focusing on our territory and region and engaging threats at a distance?    What approach should we take if we employ the Armed Forces to address threats at distance?  What contribution should the Armed Forces make in ensuring security and contributing to resilience within the UK?  How could we more effectively employ the Armed Forces in support of wider efforts to prevent conflict and strengthen international stability? Do our current international defence and security relationships require rebalancing in the longer term?  Should we further integrate our forces with those of key allies and partners?  Should we refocus our current efforts on Afghanistan?     The Defence Green Paper“Adaptability and Partnership: Issues for a Strategic Defence Review” • Uncertainty & Affordability • Complexity & the Use of Force • Adaptability & Influence • Partnership • People, Equipment & Structures • Key Questions for the Future SDR

  7. Political change • General Election: 6 May 2010 • First UK hung parliament since 1974 • end of 13 years in office for Labour • Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition agreed • Prime Minister: David Cameron • Defence Secretary: Dr Liam Fox • inherited a difficult financial position • Immediate consequences: • National Security Council created • formal start of Strategic Defence & Security Review • fixed-term parliaments: next election in May 2015 "Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid there is no money. Kind regards - and good luck!"

  8. Shaping the SDSR “The SDSR will make a clean break from the military and political mindset of cold war policies. It will be strategic, cross-government and comprehensive, covering all areas of defence and security.”SofS for DefenceRUSI 14/6/2010 “The review will need to provide a step change, not salami-slicing. We will have to bring defence policy, plans, commitments and Resources into balance, confront the harsh facts of the economic climate in which we operate …..”SofS for DefenceHansard HofC 21/6/10 “Let me sum up the Ministry of Defence’s approach to the SDSR. First, relevance: our posture and capabilities must be relevant to the world we now live in Secondly, realism: resources are tight for the country as a whole, defence is no exception Thirdly, responsibility: as a nation, …”SofS for DefenceRUSI 14/6/2010 “… protecting our way of life and providing security for our citizens is the primary and overriding duty of Government, that is why the SDSR must become a national endeavour and all in Government must have the political resilience, strength, will and resolve to see us through.” SofS for DefenceHansard HofC 21/6/10

  9. The SDSR Analysis • “… So, let me set out the process of analysis we are going through at the moment. We are • contrasting cost savings and the capability implications with the risks that we face in the real • global security environment. This means assessing any proposed change in a current • programme or platform, against a series of criteria including: • First, the cost saving in years zero to 5, 5 to 10 and 10 plus. • Second, the capability implications - what capability will be lost as a result of this decision • and what other assets do we possess that might give us the same or a similar capability? • Third, the operational implications - what operations that we currently undertake, or are likely • to undertake, will we be unable to undertake as a result of this change? • Fourth, the ability to regenerate the capability, at what cost and in what timeframe. • And fifth, the risk in the real world that this capability currently protects us from or is likely to • protect us from in the foreseeable future.” • SofS for Defence,Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors 13 August 2010

  10. Analysis for the SDSR • Force structure Analysis • Workstrand support • Synthesis • But … • not talking about the detail of the SDSR, but a reflection on the role of analysis in decision making.

  11. Decision timing Question (?) Advice Synthesis Analysis Politics Industry impact Bias Pre-conceptions Other?

  12. So … • Analysis should be • timely • useful • understandable

  13. Timeliness • Rate of production of analysis vs rate of progress in context/decision/question • analysis slower than context • chaos • analysis = context • catch-up • analysis faster than context • convergent, optimised Timely delivery of analysis • pre-emptive research (shelf-stacking) • modular programme design • logical interface/access tools • being ‘part of the team’

  14. Exploitation Meaning analysis done ‘for customers’, generally confined to their pre-submitted question Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull • Support to critical decision points • timing and scope • Analysing the ‘So what?’ • cost, effectiveness, risk • Trust and confidence • Effectiveness in communicating analysis Meaning analysis done ‘to customers’, not confined to a pre-submitted question

  15. Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull • Quick pace • Rapidly delivered advice • High-level • ‘big-hand, tiny map’

  16. Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull • Implementation. ‘So What?’ • detail, deeper analysis • programme implications • test and validate assumptions • greater consideration of complexity of issues • less time pressure (perhaps?)

  17. Complexity Time pressure Rapid analysis Utilisation of the pre-stacked shelves More considered design More detail ‘So What?’ Pre (and during) SDSR Post-SDSR

  18. Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull • Closeness to decision-makers, independence is important • Good exploitation pre-SDSR could increase desire for Evidence-based decision support post-SDSR (including ‘business as usual’) • Exploitation of ‘pulled’ analysis easier (in theory?)

  19. Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull Less evidence-based decisions (Poor decisions?)   Important   Not important Asked Not asked

  20. So … • Analysis is of utility within the SDSR • bespoke analysis and ‘meta-analysis’ • Analysis support to SDSR will continue • Lessons can be learnt that will help develop the use of analysis for evidence-based decision-making • not just for Strategic Reviews

  21. Next time? • Fixed-term elections • Regular Strategic Defence Reviews • every Parliament? • Impact for Analysis? • know (in advance) its coming • know the process • be a part of the process • know what’s important, and the metrics • know the questions

  22. End Questions? Keith Goodman Dstl Portsdown West Portsdown Hill Road Hampshire PO17 6AD tel +44 (0) 23 9253 2144 kgoodman@dstl.gov.uk Jason Field Dstl Fort Halstead Sevenoaks Kent TN14 7BP tel +44 (0) 1959 892217 jrfield@dstl.gov.uk

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