Role of economics in w w project and in climate change projects
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Role of Economics in W&W Project and in Climate Change Projects. Explain how land use patterns evolve over time Forecast future land use change Determine how different policies might produce different future land use patterns. How Do Different Approaches to Modeling Land Use Change Compare?.

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Role of Economics in W&W Project and in Climate Change Projects

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Role of economics in w w project and in climate change projects

Role of Economics in W&W Project and in Climate Change Projects

  • Explain how land use patterns evolve over time

  • Forecast future land use change

  • Determine how different policies might produce different future land use patterns


How do different approaches to modeling land use change compare

How Do Different Approaches to Modeling Land Use Change Compare?

  • Build-Out Analysis:

    • Accepts Transportation Analysis Zone Small Area Population Forecasts

    • Spreads Forecasted Population Change Over Space According to Zoned Densities

  • Geostatistical Simulation (cellular automata)

    • Landscape is Divided into Cells

    • Transition Rules are Functions of State and Location of Cell and State of Neighbor


Role of economics in w w project and in climate change projects

  • Economic Modeling

    • Model is “process-based”, “mechanistic”, “behavioral”

    • Parcel Owner Chooses Optimal Time and Density of Development

    • Factors Taken Into Account that Affect Decision are:

      • Value of parcel in undeveloped use

      • Value of parcel in developed use

      • Costs of converting parcel to developed use

      • … and how these are changing over time…


Other modeling approaches fail to account for the fact that

Other modeling approaches fail to account for the fact that…

policies do not dictate outcomes; they provide incentives/disincentives or constraints on individuals’ decisions.

you can’t predict future land use outcomes under varying policies.

If you don’t know how policies affect individuals’ decisions…


Examples of growth control policies

Examples of Growth Control Policies

  • “Downzoning” (increasing the min. lot size or decreasing the maximum allowable density)

  • Imposing open space and clustering requirements

  • Restricting the provision of public utilities

  • Instituting agricultural preservation programs

  • Designating “Priority Funding Areas”

  • Enforcing adequate public facilities moratoria

None can be incorporated in current cellular automata models,

but can be incorporated in models of economic decision making.


Tasks for economics component in current climate change project

Tasks for Economics Component in Current Climate Change Project

  • Produce 20-50 year land use change forecasts:

    • Using the “build out” analysis approach

    • Using the economic modeling approach – with and without Smart Growth policies

  • Devise a means of translating probabilistic outcomes of models into forecast scenarios usable by other PI’s:

    • Use Monte Carlo simulations to determine variability of resulting pattern due to inherent randomness of process.


Tasks for economics component in proposed climate change project

Tasks for Economics Component in Proposed Climate Change Project

Determine spatially-explicit scenarios, taking into account the following dynamic elements:

  • growing population and changing demographics;

  • changing land use policies;

  • receding coastline due to sea level rise;

  • adoption of climate change response policies (e.g. taxes on carbon emissions, subsidies for carbon sequestration)


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