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Đặng Kim Sơn IPSARD/MARD

Impacts of International Economic Integration on Agriculture, Rural Development and Farmer in Vietnam. Đặng Kim Sơn IPSARD/MARD. Impacts of tariff cuts. Evaluate the impacts on Agricultural Sector. Strategy and Policy Recommendation. Impacts of input price shocks.

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Đặng Kim Sơn IPSARD/MARD

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  1. Impacts of International Economic Integration on Agriculture, Rural Development and Farmer in Vietnam Đặng Kim Sơn IPSARD/MARD

  2. Impacts of tariff cuts Evaluate the impacts on Agricultural Sector Strategy and Policy Recommendation Impacts of input price shocks Forecast of impacts of climate change

  3. Impacts on the whole economy: increase in welfare and bigger deficit in trade balance

  4. Impacts of Tariff Cuts on Agricultural Export

  5. Impacts of Tariff Cuts on Agricultural Import

  6. Negative impact of input price shocksStalled GDP, decreased labor cost, decreased investment

  7. Impacts on agricultural sub-sectors: fishing industry will experience the most severe impact

  8. Sectoral impacts: CCA measures will lead to an increase in agricultural output Real output of agricultural sectors for MONRE scenarios (% changes compared to NOCC scenarios)

  9. Impact of climate change: All scenarios lead to decreases in GDP, MONRE-ADC is the best. Real GDP for all scenarios (% changes compared to base scenario)

  10. Impacts on agricultural sub-sectors:CCA measures will lead to an increase in output of all sub-sectors • Output of some crops under MONRE scenarios, • (% changes compared to NOCC scenario in 2030)

  11. Regional impacts:CCA measures lead to increase in output of almost all regions, especially CH Regional real GDP for MONRE scenarios in 2030 (% changes compared to NOCC scenarios)

  12. Impacts on rural livelihoods and poverty: two opposite trends Worse poverty reduction in rural areas because of increased input prices Better poverty reduction in rural areas thanks to FTA commitments

  13. Higher rate of poverty reduction in poorer regions Impacts on poverty reduction in the North (%) • Impacts on poverty reduction in the South (%)

  14. Policy recommendations

  15. Macroeconomic policies • Exchange rate regulations • Ensure reasonable lending rates for businesses • Adjust state budget to cope with reduction in tax revenue due to tariff cuts • CCA plan

  16. Development strategies • Establish an export-oriented agriculture • Invest properly in production, processing and trading stages, creating strategic agricultural industries • Restructure ineffective and loss-making SOEs • Transform natural resources to industries of comparative advantages • Restructure agricultural production, expand market • Taking advantages of coming agreements like TPP

  17. Rural development policies • Land policies on land consolidation, conversion of land use, land tenure and land area • Labor policies on vocational training for rural labor • Rural institutions improvements • Improvement of infrastructure and development of services for agriculture production and in rural areas. • Propose policies to enhance social welfare and on HEPR.

  18. Thank you

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