Ensuring and sustaining macroeconomic stability
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Ensuring and sustaining macroeconomic stability. Response from DPs to the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda 2010-2013. GSGDA’s macro-chapter. We see: Broad policy orientations Little analytical underpinning Little interlinkages between macro-issues and other policies

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Ensuring and sustaining macroeconomic stability

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Ensuring and sustaining macroeconomic stability

Ensuring and sustaining macroeconomic stability

Response from DPs to the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda 2010-2013


Gsgda s macro chapter

GSGDA’s macro-chapter

We see:

  • Broad policy orientations

  • Little analytical underpinning

  • Little interlinkages between macro-issues and other policies

    We would expect:

  • Macroeconomic framework that establishes the scope for increased spending on development priorities (fiscal space), by:

    • Getting the basics right (analytical framework + assumptions)

    • Addressing current challenges that constrain development potential

    • in order to understand the viability of development policies in the sectors.


Analytical underpinning needed to establish fiscal space

Analytical underpinning needed to establish fiscal space

The macroeconomic framework should guide us to understand:

  • Assumptions on sources of growth and employment

  • Scope for increased revenue collection, domestic (efficiency, coverage) and external

  • Timing and volume of new revenue from oil&gas (leap in GDP may lead to false expectation regarding availability of revenue)

  • Meaningful costing of policy priorities, and translation into the 2011-2013 budget (currently under preparation)

  • Analytical framework after GDP rebasing incl. new financing options


Addressing challenges to create fiscal space for development

Addressing challenges to create fiscal space for development

  • The following challenges – if not properly addressed – risk to eat up most of the room for development spending:

    • Reduction of fiscal deficit

    • Arrears

    • Expenditure controls

    • Wagebill

    • Financial sector

    • Energy sector

    • Debt sustainability


Linking in with sectoral development

Linking in with sectoral development

  • Sectoral policy orientations need to be considered against macro-policy, e.g.:

    • Agricultural development (prone to Dutch disease)

    • Access to affordable credit (linked to viability of banking sector, linked to arrears and energy-sector problems)

    • Gas sector development (linked to arrears in energy sector which constrain financial sector)

    • PFM reforms (revenue and expenditure) in view of fiscal deficit but also increased government efficiency


Some issues for discussion and follow up

Some issues for discussion and follow up

  • After having established the policy orientations through the GSGDA, how is GoG planning to work out the forward-looking analytics which will determine fiscal space?

  • What comprehensive policy actions to address key constraints?

  • How can we deepen the linkages between macroeconomics and sectoral policy priorities? What role to play for DPs?


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