Future skill needs in Europe
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Future skill needs in Europe Medium-term forecast. Alena Zukersteinova Cedefop. Cedefop. European agency for the development of vocational education and training (VET) Research, analysis, scientific advice and networking to provide evidence and support in:

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Future skill needs in europe medium term forecast

Future skill needs in Europe

Medium-term forecast

Alena Zukersteinova

Cedefop

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Cedefop

Cedefop

European agency for the development of vocational education and training (VET)

Research, analysis, scientific advice and networking to provide evidence and support in:

  • developing/implementing VET policy

  • European cooperation in VET

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Why skill needs analyses for europe

Why skill needs analyses for Europe

  • to fill existing information deficits on future skill needs (for all actors on the labour market)

  • to support evidence-based policy-makingin LLL, employment and social policy

    European push:

    - Council resolution on new skills for new jobs (15/11/2007)

    - Spring 2008 Council/Presidency conclusions (13-14/3/2008)

    - Council conclusions on a jobs and skills initiative (9/6/2008)

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


What forecasts

What forecasts…

can provide?

  • systematic analysis of the implications of continuation of past trends and patterns of behaviour

  • alternative scenarios based on alternative assumptions

  • basis for intelligent and informed debate and further research

    cannot provide?

  • precise predictions that can be used for detailed manpower planning (not a crystal ball)

  • qualitative information on skills and competences

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Modular approach the framework

Modular approach the Framework

Multi-sectoral macroeconomic model

Stock and expansion demand by occupation

Stock and expansion demand by qualification

Replacement demand

by

occupation/qualification

Job openings by occupation

Job openings by qualification

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Future skill needs in europe medium term forecast

Shift towards services continues…

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Trends by sector eu 25

Trends by sector (EU-25+)

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Sectoral net change and structure e u 25

Sectoralnet change and structure(EU-25+)

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Future skill needs in europe medium term forecast

Demographic developments create significant replacement demand…

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Total demand by occupation e u 25

Total demandby occupation (EU-25+)

expansion demand (net change) of 13,3 million jobs

+

replacement demand

of 51 million jobs

=

64,3 million job openings

2006-2015

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Future skill needs in europe medium term forecast

Danger of polarisation of jobs…

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Occupational structure e u 25

Occupationalstructure(EU-25+)

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Future skill needs in europe medium term forecast

Qualification requirements are raising across all occupations, even for elementary jobs…

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Future skill needs in europe medium term forecast

Cedefop-Photomuseum Award 2007: People at work, people at training; Schlamann, A. interSHOPs.

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Qualification trends and structure eu 25

Qualificationtrendsandstructure(EU-25+)

25,3%

29,3%

20,9 %

48,6%

46,2%

49,9%

26,2%

32,9 %

20,8%

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Net change by qualification eu 25

Net changebyqualification(EU-25+)

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Total demand by qualification eu 25

Totaldemand by qualification(EU-25+)

2006-2015

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Challenges risks and opportunities

Challenges, risks and opportunities

Challenges: a shift of skills demand

globalisation

demographic developments

skill-biased technological change

organisational change

The risks

the risk of mismatches

the risk of jobs polarisation

Opportunities for education and training policies

adaptation and development of a high skilled workforce

but also an optimal skills mix (more general and non-routine skills)

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Future priorities in forecasting

Future priorities in forecasting

Continuing dialogue: with country expertsand stakeholders

Overcome data problems: policy support needed to refine data

Further refinement: the models/framework

Complementary research: forecast of skills supply and more detailed analysis of skill needs at enterprise and sectoral level

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


On going work future plans

On-going work & future plans

  • Medium-term forecast of skills supply in Europe (EU-27, 2020) and identification of possible imbalances between supply and demand – results early 2009

  • Regular forecasts of skill needs and skills supply in Europe (2010, 2012) – support from DG Employment

  • New initiative on employers´ surveys as a tool for identification of skill needs – feasibility work started

  • Contribution and support to the Commission „new skills for new jobs“ initiative

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


Contact details for more information

Contact details for more information:

Cedefop: www.cedefop.europa.eu

Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet

Alena Zukersteinova

[email protected]

Torsten Dunkel

[email protected]

Peter Szovics

[email protected]

YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm


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