usmef new cuts seminar
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
USMEF “New Cuts” Seminar

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 23

USMEF “New Cuts” Seminar - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 110 Views
  • Uploaded on

USMEF “New Cuts” Seminar. Carcass Utilization: The “New” Japan Market. Brett Stuart Director of Trade Analysis Omaha, Nebraska November 29, 2005. BSE Impact on Japan Beef Market. Eating less, yet paying more Losers: N. America, domestic industry. Source: ALIC, USMEF.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' USMEF “New Cuts” Seminar' - gerik


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
usmef new cuts seminar

USMEF “New Cuts” Seminar

Carcass Utilization:

The “New” Japan Market

Brett Stuart

Director of Trade Analysis

Omaha, Nebraska

November 29, 2005

bse impact on japan beef market
BSE Impact on Japan Beef Market
  • Eating less, yet paying more
  • Losers: N. America, domestic industry

Source: ALIC, USMEF

bse impact on japan market
BSE Impact on Japan Market

Japan BSE 9/01

US BSE 12/03

  • BSE was a major impact to U.S. beef …
bse impact on japan market1
BSE Impact on Japan Market

… but not to Japanese meat supplies

u s beef cuts to japan
U.S. Beef Cuts to Japan

“Methodology and Results of the Value of Beef Exports Analysis, USMEF, 2002

u s beef to japan cuts
U.S. Beef to Japan - Cuts

These 7 cuts only represent 15% (87 pounds) of red meat per carcass

USMEF Estimates

u s supplies
U.S. Supplies?
  • A-40 Maturity
    • USDA Estimated at 7.7% of U.S. slaughter
    • Could be much lower
  • Source Verified – documentation
    • Estimates range from 15-30%
  • QSA Approved?

_____ (fill in the blank) % of steer/heifer slaughter?

  • Seasonality

Keep inmind: ONLY 2.4% of U.S. beef production was exported to Japan in 2003

-- Cuts are KEY! --

u s beef to japan cuts1
U.S. Beef to Japan - Cuts

20%

15%

USMEF Estimates

new cuts1
“New” Cuts

USMEF Estimates

potential available supplies
‘Potential’ Available Supplies

Source: Cattle-Fax, USMEF

new cuts2
“New Cuts”
  • The majority of U.S. production of these new cuts will not be used for Japan
  • However, they do provide opportunities to enhance value on underutilized cuts and expand supplies for Japan
  • What about prices?
current prices
Current Prices

Source: USDA, ALIC, USMEF; US price includes frt and 38.5% duty

japan beef prices
Japan Beef Prices

$0.92

Source: ALIC, Trader’s Price

cut prices
Cut Prices

The question to ask yourself is: “What will short plates, tongues, etc, be worth when the market opens?”

Flap

Shoulder clod, Ball tip, knuckle

Brisket

Source: USDA, USMEF

what about demand
What About Demand?
  • 3rd Quarter 2005 Survey
    • Diet and price are most common reasons for eating less beef
    • Significantly fewer referring to BSE as cause for eating less beef

USMEF, Ipsos

demand points to consider
Demand Points to Consider
  • Similar results in 2001 survey
  • 26% of 122* million= 31.7 million consumers
  • Foodservice beef is not labeled country of origin; US beef is used widely in foodservice
  • Australian beef has been high-priced
  • Domestic beef remains very high-priced
  • Retail sales will likely be most difficult to recover
  • Two years of negative press about US beef

USMEF Estimate: 4-5 years to recover to 2003 levels

* 127 million total population in 2005, 4% vegetarian

summary
Summary
  • Japan is hugely significant to the industry
  • Traditionally, the U.S. has sent a few cuts from a lot of cattle, to Japan; supply of these cuts will be severely limited
  • Demand for some segments will recover quickly, overall demand will take years to recover
  • “New” cuts provide an opportunity to enhance supplies and profits
potential available supplies1
‘Potential’ Available Supplies

Source: Cattle-Fax, USDA, USMEF

ad