Tools of Statecraft. Military intervention, foreign aid, and sanctions. I. Military Intervention. Predicting intervention Escalation: Joining an ongoing armed conflict Best predictor: Prior third-party intervention Alliance Portfolios predict side choice. What is an alliance portfolio?.
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Tools of Statecraft
Military intervention, foreign aid, and sanctions
Contiguity: Sharing common border
MID = Use, threat, or display of force short of war
Resources that can be applied to a conflict decay at distance
Shift in gradient due to technology or development
State level finding that magnifies dyadic effects:
Democracies more stable than autocracies, which in turn are more stable than intermediate regimes
Disparity = Low Risk
Parity = High Risk
(Note: War is defined as minimum 1000 battle-deaths/year)
Probability of Compromise, 1816-1997
Intervention for government
(Australia, South Africa)
(Note: Metals indicated are used in more than one place in engine)
Israel and Egypt were the top two from 1979 to 2002 and in the top five ever since 9/11 (along with Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan – countries where US forces have been fighting). Why?