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IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia. Outline • 1998 Nuclear Tests • Background of Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programs • Political Context. Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia • Indian nuclear tests: May 11 and 13, 1998 • Diplomatic efforts to stop Pakistani tests

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IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

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  1. IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

  2. Outline • 1998 Nuclear Tests • Background of Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programs • Political Context

  3. Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia • Indian nuclear tests: May 11 and 13, 1998 • Diplomatic efforts to stop Pakistani tests • Pakistan nuclear tests: May 28 & 30, 1998 • Immediate economic sanctions on both India and Pakistan

  4. Indian Background • Tension with China • 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion” (PNE) • Today: ~50-90 nuclear weapons • Goal: regional stability

  5. Pakistani Background • Nuclear weapons capability by 1989-1990 • Today: ~30-60 nuclear weapons • Goals: overcoming conventional inferiority, keeping regional balance of power

  6. Delivery Systems • Strategic missile systems • Fighter plane option http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1732430.stm

  7. Political Context: India • CIA surprise • US inaction • Motives: --Matching China --Hindu nationalism, political needs --Maintaining advantage over Pakistan

  8. Political Context: India (cont.) • Desire for international respect • Resentment of NPT • Initial euphoria, then increasing protests

  9. Anti-Nuclear Protests in India http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/16/india.protests/

  10. Political Context: Pakistan • No real alternative? • Need to satisfy nationalist demands: “We have settled the score” • Oct 1999 coup PM Nawaz Sharif and Gen. Pervez Musharraf http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/news/021021_pmln_siqqid_ua.shtml

  11. Nuclear Hopes and Fears • Pakistan Army: better able to negotiate with India? • Fears of radical Islamic elements within Pakistan Army • Fear of nukes falling into terrorist hands

  12. Conclusions? • Greater stability? • Impact of proliferation in South Asia is still unclear

  13. Quiz • Use blue or black ink • Read every word before you begin

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