Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy

1. Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy December 14, 2005 Keith B. Payne President, National Institute for Public Policy Chair, Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University

2. Peer / Emerging Peer Allies & Friends Rogue States Violent Extremists (VE) Small Group ofSenior Leaders Leadership andgeneral population StateSponsors Audiences Org Ldrs WMD escalation, second WMD use • Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD) • Suicide operations Immediate and potential provocations N/A Deter whomfrom what? Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies Religious, familial support/network for VE Military competition N/A Dissuade Regional military attacks, WMD use Terrorist attacks suicide operations Immediate and potential attacks N/A Defend, Denyand Defeat Confidence in U.S: –For coalitions –For alliance –For non-proliferation Assure N/A N/A N/A Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals Small group orsingle leader Cells National Institute for Public Policy

3. Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals Peer / Emerging Peer Allies & Friends Rogue States Violent Extremists (VE) Small Group ofSenior Leaders Small group orsingle leader Leadership andgeneral population StateSponsors Audiences Org Ldrs Cells WMD escalation, second WMD use • Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD) • Suicide operations Immediate and potential provocations N/A Deter whomfrom what? Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies Religious, familial support/network for VE Military competition N/A Dissuade Regional military attacks, WMD use Terrorist attacks suicide operations Immediate and potential attacks N/A Defend, Denyand Defeat Confidence in U.S: –For coalitions –For alliance –For non-proliferation Assure N/A N/A N/A National Institute for Public Policy

4. Peer / Emerging Peer Allies & Friends Rogue States Violent Extremists (VE) Small Group ofSenior Leaders Leadership andgeneral population StateSponsors Audiences Org Ldrs WMD escalation, second WMD use • Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD) • Suicide operations Immediate and potential provocations N/A Deter whomfrom what? Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies Religious, familial support/network for VE Military competition N/A Dissuade Regional military attacks, WMD use Terrorist attacks suicide operations Immediate and potential attacks N/A Defend, Denyand Defeat Confidence in U.S: –For coalitions –For alliance –For non-proliferation Assure N/A N/A N/A Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals Small group orsingle leader Cells National Institute for Public Policy

5. Peer / Emerging Peer Allies & Friends Rogue States Violent Extremists (VE) Small Group ofSenior Leaders Leadership andgeneral population StateSponsors Audiences Org Ldrs WMD escalation, second WMD use • Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD) • Suicide operations Immediate and potential provocations N/A Deter whomfrom what? Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies Religious, familial support/network for VE Military competition N/A Dissuade Regional military attacks, WMD use Terrorist attacks suicide operations Immediate and potential attacks N/A Defend, Denyand Defeat Confidence in U.S: –For coalitions –For alliance –For non-proliferation Assure N/A N/A N/A Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals Small group orsingle leader Cells National Institute for Public Policy

6. Policy Priorities and Effects ShapeAppropriate Weapon Choice • Audiences? • Prioritization of Policy Goals? • Trade-offs? Policy Objectives, Trade-offs and Effects May be Decisive, Not Targeting Efficiency National Institute for Public Policy