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Авиакомпании, аэропорты, аэродромы PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Авиакомпании, аэропорты, аэродромы. Лектор: Комаристый Евгений Николаевич. О себе. В 1999 году закончил экономический факультет НГУ В 2001 там же магистратуру В 2004 там же аспирантуру В июле 2004 защитил кандидатскую диссертацию В 2009 получил степень МВА в МГУ

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Авиакомпании, аэропорты, аэродромы

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, ,

:


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  • 1999

  • 2001

  • 2004

  • 2004

  • 2009


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  • 2001 2005

  • 2005 /

  • 2000

  • - S7 ( )

  • , ..


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  • 34

  • 16

  • -


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  • :

    • ..

    • .. -

    • B. Vasigh, T. Tacker, K. Fleming Introduction to air transport economics: from theory to applications


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komaristiy.ru/stud


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  • :


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If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and open an airline. Soon enough you will be a millionaire.

Sir Richard Branson,

Founder,

Virgin Atlantic Airways


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:

  • = + +


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?

, . .. 1% 2%. 2% 4% ..

.


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, , .

, ( ) .


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:

  • ?

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  • ?

  • ?


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:


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:


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:


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:


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D = f(P, P, Y, H)

D (demand)

P (price)

P -

Y (yield)

H (, .)


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D = Q aP

D

P

Q

P = 6 565 17D

D = (6 565 P)/17


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?

D = (6 565 6000)/17 = 33

6000 x 33 = 198 .

6000

198

D = (6 565 P)/17

33


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?

D = (6 565 4000)/17 = 150

4000 x 150 = 600.

6000

198

D = (6 565 P)/17

4000

600

33

150


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?

D = (6 565 2000)/17 = 268

2000 x 268 = 536.

6000

198

D = (6 565 P)/17

4000

600

2000

536

268

33

150


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?


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?

= PD

  • D = f(P) = (6 565 P)/17

  • = P f(P) = P x (6 565 P)/17

  • = 386P P2/17

  • 386 2P/17 = 0

  • P = (386 x 17)/2 = 3 281 .

  • = 386P P2/17 = 633 . .


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?


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?


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?


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:)

  • 4000

  • 150

  • -

  • ,


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:


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,

  • ,


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TC

VC

FC


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, . , . , , . (7-10 ) .


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(, ..)

, ..

, .


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, (, ..)

.


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.

( ) .

( ) . , , .


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*

  • Fuel Cost perASM

  • Maintenance osts per ASM

  • Crew Costs per ASM

  • Other Operating Costs per ASM

  • Non OperatingCosts per ASM

* Introduction to air transport economics


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S7

  • ( , )

  • ( , .)

  • ( , / )

  • ( , , , / )


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?

( ) ( )

(break-even)

, ( ), , .


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?

QB.. =

QB.. =

SB.E. =FC/(1-V/P)

V ( )

P ()


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:

(, .) - $30,28 .

- $180

- $211

: $30,28/(1-180/211)=$206 . (976 . .)


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:

(, , , ) - $17 350

- $19

- $211

: $17 350/(1-19/211)=$19 967 (90 ., 70% 319 128 )


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102 .

100 .

98 .

2 .

4 .


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, , (). (degree of operating leverage DOL).


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, %

DOL =

(), %

S VC

Q(P V)

DOL =

DOL =

S VC FC

Q(P V) FC

V ( )

VC

Q

P ()

S


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(), , , (), .

Q(P-V)

Q(P-V)-FC

Q

Q-QB.E.

DOLQ. =

=


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120

120-90

DOL120 =

= 4

100

100-90

DOL100 =

= 10


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?


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?

<

=

>

()


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?

50 , 10 .

80%, 50%.

1 ? 3 ?

5 ?10?

?


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: 1

51 , 11 .

80%*50/51 = 78,4%

10 1,6%

11- 78,4% - 10*1,6% = 62,4%

. !


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: 2

52 , 12 .

78,4%*51/52 = 76,9%

11 1,5%

76,9% - 11*1,5% = 60,4%

. !


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: 2 (2)

52 , 12 .

80%*50/52 = 76,9%

76,9% - 12*(80%*(50/51-51/52))/2 = 60,4%

. !


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: N

80%*50/(50+N)

N :

50

(50+N-1)

(50+N-1)

(50+N)

80%*50/(50+N) (10+N)*80%*

/N

, .


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?

91 97.


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2:

  • +

  • -

  • *

  • **

  • ,

*

**


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2:

:

D = 18 000 2P

250 . .

600 . .

100 .

500 .


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2:


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2:

100 . . 1/10 .

80%, 100 . 8%, .. 88%. 200 . 16%, .. 96%.


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2:

= 0,4* + 0,6*

= *2

=

2 , . .


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: 1


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: 1


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: 1


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: 1


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: 1


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: 1


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?

500 500 ( Boeing 747-400) 100 ( Boeing 737-500)?

VC

FC


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LED

TOF

MOW

OVB

BAX

AER


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TC

VC

TC

VC

FC


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AFC


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AVC

AFC


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ATC

AVC

AFC


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...

MC

ATC

AVC

AFC


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, (, ..)

.


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MC (Marginal Costs )

MR (Marginal Revenue )

MC = + .

MR = .


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MR

MR


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MC

MR=MC

MR


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. , , . .

( ) ( ) .


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MCsystem

MCindividual

MR


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?

: Q = 18 000 2P

: 18 000 2P = 0

P = 18 000 / 2 = 9 000

P = P = 4 500

Q = 18 000 2*4 500 = 9000


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?


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:

  • ()


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:

MC

AC

MR


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:

MC

AC

MR


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:

  • (, -, , ..)


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MC

AC

MR


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?

: ?

70%

80%

90-95%


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?

: ?

, . , .


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- :


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( )

MC

AC

MR


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( )

MC

MC

AC

AC

MR


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( )

MC

MC

MC

AC

AC

AC

MR


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:

  • ( -)


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:


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:

MC

2

MR2

MR1

1


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:

:

  • ()

  • , MC=0

  • ,


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:

MR1

2

1

MR2


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:

MR1

MR1

2

1

MR2

MR2

2

1


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:

1/3Q

MR1,2

1,2


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  • ()


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:

  • . ( , , )

  • -

  • -


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:


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:

  • , (no-show, go-show),


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, :

  • , ..

  • , .. -

  • ,


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:

  • , (no-show, go-show),


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:

  • ( , , , .)

  • ( )

  • ()


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Y

M

Q

W

, . .

15

10

5

20

7

14

21

150%

75%

100%

50%

, . .

3

5

,

,


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:

  • , (no-show, go-show),


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Y=50

M=150

W=100

, 300


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Y=300

M=150

W=100


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Y=300

M=250

W=100


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100%


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:

  • , (no-show, go-show),


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EMSR-

(Expected Marginal Seat Revenue) , n:

EMSRi = fiP(Si)

fi - i- ( )

P(Si) - , i- S


Overbooking

(overbooking)

-

100%

(no-show,

go-show)


Overbooking1

(overbooking)

:

  • (no-show, go-show)

  • (-)


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:

: ?


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?

:


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:

:

  • ()

:


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,


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,


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, . .

, .


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- .

7%

12%

15%


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