Ontario, Migration and the Paradoxes of Diversity

1. Ontario, Migration and the Paradoxes of Diversity Jack Jedwab Association for Canadian Studies February 2013

2. Introduction • Ontario is often seen as the capital of Canadian multiculturalism with one of the continent’s most multi-ethnic and multi-racial populations. But how do Ontarians view questions around immigration, integration and identity? To what degree are views around issues of immigration and diversity amongst Ontarians shared by other Canadians? Is Ontario a distinct society when it comes to relevant questions around immigration and integration? The research below suggests a certain paradox when it comes to views on immigration and integration. Most important perhaps is the concern with the overall numbers of immigrants despite the generally high degree of value attributed to their contribution. Before proceeding to analyze the survey results the next slide will present the evolution numbers of immigrants (c.2002-2011) coming to Ontario and some of its larger cities. As well changing demographic trends in Ontario on the basis of migration are worth noting as economic concerns persist and population growth stalls in the province.

3. Ontario July-Sept 2012 population increase smallest for 3rd quarter since 1993 • In the third quarter of 2012, Ontario (+0.3%) experienced a population growth comparable to the national average. In October 1, 2012, Ontario’s population was estimated at 13,546,100, an increase of 40,200 (+0.3%) compared with July 1, 2012. It was the province’s smallest third-quarter population increase since 1993. The slowdown in the province’s population growth was mainly attributable to its losses in interprovincial migration (-5,600). In the third quarter of 2012, Ontario lost almost 5,900 people in migration exchanges with Alberta. • Alberta posted a population growth of 33,100 (+0.9%) in the third quarter of 2012 to 3,906,800 as of October 1, 2012. Population increase had not been this high for any quarter, with the exception of the third quarter of 1980. This growth was mainly the result of net interprovincial migration (+13,900), with net gain with Ontario (+5,900) and British Columbia (+4,000). • Source Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic EstimatesJuly to September 2012, (Released December 18, 2012)

4. Immigration tumbles in Ontario • As observed below in 2011 immigration to the province of Ontario declined to 99 458 a near 20% decrease over the previous year and a low for the 21st century. For the third quarter of 2012 the trend continued with immigration to Ontario at 86 385. Considering 4th quarter growth averages 7500 per year (with a range of 5000 to 15 000 per year in Ontario) it is likely that the numbers for 2012 will remain about the same as 2011. While the number of permanent residents in Ontario declines temporary entrants have gone up slightly rising to 67 405 in 2011 its highest for the 21st century and 10% higher than in 2009

5. In 2011, Ontario overall immigration declined to lowest number thus far in the 21st century. In our 5 citiesOttawa total number of immigrants declined least between 2010 and 2011Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada

6. Methodology for Opinion Survey Results on Immigration and Diversity The National web-based survey was conducted by the firm Leger Marketing commissioned for the Association for Canadian Studies with a sample of 2 200 Canadians was conducted during the week of November 5th, 2012 and had a probabilistic margin of error is 2.9 percent 19 times out of 20

7. Ontarians slightly above national average in percentage agreeing there are too many immigrants in Canada But slightly above average in value ssigned to diversity

8. Ottawa residents most favorable to immigrants. Hamilton residents most likely to agree that there are too many immigrants