Economic crisis and energy policy at a crossroad energi og konomi 17 3 2009
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Economic crisis and energy policy at a crossroad Energi og økonomi 17/3 2009. Frede Hvelplund Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University. Oil price development 1970-2008. Economic crisis!. US oil import and the economic crisis.

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Economic crisis and energy policy at a crossroad Energi og økonomi 17/3 2009

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Economic crisis and energy policy at a crossroad energi og konomi 17 3 2009

Economic crisis and energy policy at a crossroadEnergi og økonomi 17/3 2009

Frede Hvelplund

Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University


Oil price development 1970 2008

Oil price development 1970-2008

Economic crisis!


Us oil import and the economic crisis

US oil import and the economic crisis


Economic crisis and energy policy at a crossroad energi og konomi 17 3 2009

More an economic/ecological crisis than a financial crisis

The economic crisis is mainly caused by the increased fossil fuel/oil dependency

The fossil fuel/oil dependency is also causing the climate change problems.

Clearly the weak financial institutions boosts the economic- and climate problems!!


Lack of sustainable energy policy the common cause of economic crisis and climate crisis

Lack of sustainable energy policy:The common cause of economic crisis and climate crisis

Climate crisis

Lack of sustainable energy policy

Economic/financial crisis


Market reactions hampering green tecnological innovation

Market reactions hampering green tecnological innovation


The rise and fall of oilprices

The rise and fall of oilprices


The rise and fall of coal prices

The rise and fall of coal prices


Economic crisis and energy policy at a crossroad energi og konomi 17 3 2009

The rise and fall of CO2 prices


Financial crisis

Financial crisis

The rise and fall of willingness to finance houses, projects etc.


Economic crisis and climate policy

Economic crisis and climate policy

Tendency to wrong economic paradigm:

“Due to the economic crisis we cannot afford implementing sustainable energy technologies.”


The vicious circle of present climate energy and financial policy hampering green tech innovation

The vicious circle of present climate, energy and financial policy hampering green tech. innovation

Falling prices on fossil fuels

Climate crisis

Worsened

Lack of sustainable energy policy

Collapsed carbon markets

Increased

Economic/financial crisis

Collapsed financial system

Worsened

The task is to break this vicious circle!!

“wrong” problem understanding and political will/ability (tendency)


Economic crisis and energy policy at a crossroad energi og konomi 17 3 2009

Problem: Momentary falling prices on fossil fuels hindering stable innovation conditions for sustainable energy technologies.Solution:Oil tax keeping oil prices at (for instance) minimum 120 US$ per barrel.Similar solution for other fossil fuels.


Problem lack of green techn financing

Problem: Lack of “green techn”. financing

Solution: Public quaranty for investment in sustainable energy technologies.

(Just a small fragment compared to the present quaranties to the banks, but directly linked to projects. Has been used succesfully for Danish district heatiing projects)


Problem collapsed co2 markets destroys stable markets for sustainable energy technology innovation

Problem:Collapsed CO2 markets destroys stable markets for sustainable energy technology innovation.


Economic crisis and the systemic failure of the present amount quota system

Economic crisis and the systemic failure of the present “amount” quota system.

Quota price per tonnes CO2

Quota supply (Growth)

Quota supply (Recession)

Quota price economic growth

Quota price economic recession

Quota demand (Growth)

Quota demand ( Recession)

This price reduction/oscillation hampers green energy innovation seriousely !!


The need for energy efficiency quotas example

The need for energy “efficiency” quotas (Example!!).


Efficiency quotas versus the present amount quotas

Efficiency quotas versus the present amount quotas.


The good circle climate energy and financial policy

The “good circle” climate, energy and financial policy

Stable consumer prices on fossil fuels

Climate crisis

Reduced

Sustainable energy policy

Stable CO2 costs due to efficiency quotas

Lack of

Economic/financial crisis

Reduced

Public quaranty on “green energy” loans.

The vicious circle has been broken!!

Active national energy policy


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