Methods in parapsychology
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Methods in Parapsychology. Dick Bierman University of Amsterdam [email protected] 27 april 2012, Alumni , Universiteit van Amsterdam. The Phenomena observations. Telepathy E.g. phone-telepathy Clairvoyance E.g. Dunne’s dream Precognition/sentiment E.g. 9-11 Psychokinese

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Methods in Parapsychology

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Methods in parapsychology

Methods in Parapsychology

Dick Bierman

University of Amsterdam

[email protected]

27 april 2012, Alumni , Universiteit van Amsterdam


The phenomena observations

The Phenomenaobservations

  • Telepathy

    • E.g. phone-telepathy

  • Clairvoyance

    • E.g. Dunne’s dream

  • Precognition/sentiment

    • E.g. 9-11

  • Psychokinese

    • E.g. Poltergeist


Paranormal explanation

Paranormal ‘Explanation’

  • Mental Radio (extra sensory perception)

    • Selectivity problem !!!!!!

  • Mental motor control (PK)

  • Precognition ?????

  • This psych/bio model has misguided research


Normal explanation

Normal Explanation

  • Coincidence

  • Selective memory

  • False memories

  • Cheating

  • So controlled lab-research

    • Old: Rhine (card guessing), Heymans

    • New: E.g. phone-telepathy, Presentiment


Quantitative research 1930 1960

Quantitative research 1930-1960

  • Telepathy clairvoyance

  • Weak randomization

  • Optional Stopping

  • Closed Deck

  • Data Selection?

  • Experimenter Deception

  • Psychokinesis

  • Weak registration

  • Data Selection?


Quantitative research 1960 1980

Quantitative research 1960-1980

Telepathy clairvoyance

* Weak blind judging (order dep)

Psychokinesis

* Perfect random


Onderzoekspracticum uva

OnderzoekspracticumUvA

  • 6 proefpersonen met elk vier bellers

  • Alle bellers zijn goede vrienden van de proefpersoon

  • Proefleider bezoekt proefpersoon thuis tijdens de zitting om fraude uit te sluiten

  • Proefpersoon noemt naam van random beller voor het opnemen van de telefoon (p=0.25)

  • Correlatie met Locale Sterrentijd (LocalSidereal Time (LST))


Resultaten telefoontelepathie alleen correct verlopen zittingen

Resultaten telefoontelepathie(alleen correct verlopen zittingen)

Replicatieproblemen?


Unification dunne revisited

Unification (Dunne revisited)

  • Telepathy = Clairvoyance =

    Precognition of feedback=

    TIME ‘reversal’

    • Psychokinesis = decrease entropy =

    second law in thermodynamics

    but with reversed ‘TIME’.


Advantages of unified model

Advantages of unified model

  • Selectivity problem Solved

  • Integration with main stream

    • Intuition research -> presentiment

    • Cognitive research -> retroactive paradigms (Bem)

      • Retroactive habituation

      • Retroactive priming

      • Retroactive interference

    • = Main stream but manipulation after measurement.


Presentiment research

Presentiment research

Random (roulette like) future conditions

Physiology preceding the manipulation.

• No experimenter deception


Animal fear study 1999

150 msec

7 sec

Fixation stimulus

BlankScreen

Animal Fear Study (1999)

Globisch, J., Hamm, A.O., Estevez, F., and Ehman, A. (1999). Psychophysiology, 36, pp. 66-75.

6850 msec

response

Skin Conductance

anticipation

time


Published results

Erotic

Calm

Published Results

Baseline had been set at stimulus-onset

All signals are clamped to 0 there.


Results re analysis raw data

Erotic

Anomaly

Calm

Results re-analysis raw data

Baseline set at -7 seconds

stimulus


Presentiment variables

Presentiment variables

• Dependent Variables

  • Skin Conductance

  • HR

  • EEG, CNV

  • BOLD

  • Blinks, pupil dilation, eye movement

  • Independent Variables

    • Pictures, sounds, shocks, slotmachine


  • Presentiment meta analysis

    Presentiment Meta-analysis

    • 37 studies, 15 different main authors

    • Mean effect size: 0.29

    • Combined p <10^-9

    • Filedrawer fail safe: 670

    • Gambler’s fallacy

    • Mossbridge et al (2011). In press.


    Filedrawer

    Filedrawer

    • Dependent upon Assumptions

      • Contains only negative effects

      • Contains everything with p>0.05

      • Contains everything with |p| > 0.05

    • Preregistration is the answer

      • See EJParapsychology ~ 1980. Publish independent of p

      • Pharmaceutical studies.

    • Internet archives (physics)


    Bem s cognitive approach

    Bem’s cognitive approach

    • Cognitive measures

      • No physiology because of global replication

    • Reversed standard Psychological Paradigms

      • Manipulation after the measurement

        • Decision making

        • Habituation

        • Affective Priming

        • Retroactive memory facilitation


    Procedure retroactive facilitation of recall

    Procedure retroactive facilitation of recall

    3. Practice exercise

    2.Surprise Free

    Recall

    Carpenter

    To which category belongs

    To which category belongs

    1.Visualize words

    …........................

    Carpenter

    Random subsample

    of words


    Results bem studies

    Results Bem studies

    • Improved recall performance on words that got later extra exercise.

    • Results Retroactive Facilitation of Memory

      • (N=150) mean effect size: 0.30 (p<0.01)

    • Results all 9 studies

      • All Bem studies mean effect size: 0.22 (p<10^-10)


    Criticism

    Criticism

    • Statistical

      • Using Bayesian stats the null hypothesis is still to be preferred (Wagenmakers et al, 2011)…..

      • Over-analyses is not corrected for…. (QRP!)

      • Combination of experimental results is not allowed….

    • Theoretical

      • Temporal Causality violation is not allowed……


    Theory

    Theory

    • Consciousness Induced restoration of Time Symmetry (CIRTS)

      • Maxwell EM theory: set of equations

      • Plug in 1: Initial conditions

      • Plug in 2: Boundary conditions

      • RESULT: Retarded solution and Advanced solution

      • But not observed in physical systems

        • Feyman & Wheeler: Cosmological Boundary Condition

    Bierman, D.J. (2010) CIRTS, a psychophysical theoretical perspective, JoP, 74, pp. 273-299)


    Special boundary condition

    Special Boundary condition

    • Information processed by brains sustaining consciousness.

    • Individual differences ~ brain coherence?

      • ‘Supported’ by larger effects by meditators


    Replication issues

    Replication issues

    • Psi phenomena are notoriously difficult to replicate

    • Traditionally ’explained’ by psychological variables (large uncontrolled variance)

    • and Experimenter effect

    • But maybe intrinsic???????


    The paradoxes

    The paradoxes

    • Formally Retro-Causality equivalent with backward time travel.

    • But that results in……. ‘grandfather like’ paradoxes

      • Source of event is destroyed.

      • Perfect and detailed precognitive dream that your house will burn down tomorrow………


    Avoiding paradoxes

    Avoiding paradoxes

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

    The Novikovself-consistencyprinciple, alsoknown as the Novikovself-consistencyconjecture, is a principledevelopedbyRussianphysicistIgor Dmitriyevich Novikov in the mid-1980s to solve the problem of paradoxes in time travel, which is theoreticallypermitted in certainsolutions of general relativity (solutionscontainingwhat are known as closed timelike curves). Statedsimply, the Novikovconsistencyprincipleassertsthatifaneventexiststhatwouldgiverise to a paradox, or to any "change" to the past whatsoever, then the probability of thatevent is zero. In short, itsaysthatit'simpossible to createtime paradoxes


    Take home messages

    Take home messages

    Parapsychology develops into para-physics with ‘retrocausality’ as key topic. Experimental paradigms are from psychology.

    Physics does not exclude ‘advanced’ effects

    ‘Retrocausality’ implies restrictions in replication! (Novikov) Sequential replication might intrinsically becoming more and more difficult. Parallel?

    Role of (neuro) psychology: Individual differences (Brain coherence?). Context variables.


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