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WRAP RMC 2002 Base Year Modeling and Analysis. Zac Adelman, Andy Holland, Kim Hanisak, James Wallace Carolina Environmental Program University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Mohammad Omary University of California, Riverside. WRAP Modeling Forum Meeting, San Francisco, CA March 8-9, 2005.

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Wrap rmc 2002 base year modeling and analysis

WRAP RMC 2002 Base Year Modeling and Analysis

Zac Adelman, Andy Holland, Kim Hanisak, James Wallace

Carolina Environmental Program

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Mohammad Omary

University of California, Riverside

WRAP Modeling Forum Meeting, San Francisco, CA March 8-9, 2005


Wrap rmc 2002 base year modeling and analysis1

2004 work plan emissions modeling tasks

WRAP 2002 emissions modeling database

Emissions modeling and 2004 milestones

Deliverables and QA products

2002 emissions modeling results

Outstanding issues and next steps

Discussion

WRAP RMC 2002 Base Year Modeling and Analysis


Wrap rmc 2004 work plan emissions modeling goals

Build WRAP 2002 emissions database

Model and evaluate preliminary 2002 base emissions on the RPO 36-km and WRAP 12-km modeling grids

Simulate emissions perturbations for CMAQ sensitivity simulations

Model and evaluate emissions using the Advanced Plume Treatment for large stationary point sources

Evaluate missing emissions sources and explore representing them in the RMC modeling

Improve RMC emissions modeling infrastructure

WRAP RMC 2004 Work Plan Emissions Modeling Goals


Wrap rmc 2004 work plan tasks and deliverables

Task 3-1: Base 2002 36-km emissions

Winter/summer by 01/2004

Annual by 03/2004

Task 3-2: Several upgrades to base emissions

TBD as data becomes available

Task 3-3: Base 2002 12-km emissions

07/2004

Task 3-4: Emissions sensitivity simulations

TBD as data becomes available

Task 3-5: APT emissions inventory

08/2004

WRAP RMC 2004 Work Plan Tasks and Deliverables


Wrap rmc 2004 work plan deliverable status
WRAP RMC 2004 Work PlanDeliverable Status


Wrap 2002 emissions modeling database

Goal: Collect, model, and QA actual or placeholder 2002 emissions inventories for the U.S., Canada, and Mexico

U.S. inventory sources: WRAP inventory contractors (ENVIRON, E.H. Pechan), other RPO’s, U.S. EPA

Canadian inventory sources: U.S. EPA/Environment Canada

Mexican inventory sources: U.S. EPA/DRI

SMOKE ancillary emissions data: U.S. EPA/CEP

Meteorology data: WRAP RMC

WRAP 2002 Emissions Modeling Database


Wrap 2002 emissions modeling database1

Inventory source categories: stationary area, onroad mobile, nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

Source refinements made by the RMC for source apportionment and sensitivities

Stationary area  area, anthropogenic dust, NH3

Nonroad mobile  nonroad, offshore mobile, road dust

Stationary point  point, offshore point, fires

WRAP 2002 Emissions Modeling Database


Wrap 2002 emissions simulations
WRAP 2002 Emissions Simulations nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic


Wrap rmc emissions modeling 2004 milestones

Pre02a_36 nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic: Winter/summer test simulation for developing SMOKE scripts, testing QA protocol, and initial data collection

Pre02b_36: Annual simulation with actual 2002 WRAP inventories, NEI96 grown to 2002 inventories for rest of U.S., 1995 Canadian inventory, 1999 Mexican inventory

Pre02c_36: Annual simulation with addition of 2002 rx fires and wildfires and 2018 BSM ag fires to Pre02b

Pre02d_36and Pre02d_12: Annual simulations with U.S. windblown dust and NH3 emissions, actual 2002 VISTAS inventories, NEI2002 for rest of U.S., updated 2002 WRAP rx and wildfire inventories, 2000 Canadian non-point inventory

Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36: Annual simulations for assessing impact of revised WRAP 2002 fire inventories on modeling

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling 2004 Milestones


Wrap rmc emissions modeling additional simulations

Pre02b_12 nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic: One-month test simulation for setting up modeling on the WRAP 12km grid

Pre02c_36_PinG: One-month test simulation for testing the Advanced Plume Treatment (APT) for top 100 NOx and SO2 point sources in the WRAP region

Pre02c_36s01: Two-month non-road diesel retrofit sensitivity

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Additional Simulations


WRAP RMC 2002 Emissions Modeling Summary nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic


Wrap rmc emissions modeling deliverables and qa products

SMOKE scripts nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

ASCII emissions input file database

Binary CMAQ-ready emissions files (per source category per day)

SMOKE QA reports

Emissions QA graphics and websites summarizing each simulation

Bugzilla database of modeling correspondences

CVS archive of all model inputs at the RMC

Technical documentation for each major simulation

Tech transfer and maintenance of SMOKE and emissions modeling data and QA summaries

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Deliverables and QA Products


Wrap rmc emissions modeling pre02c 36 disk use and timing
WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPre02c_36 Disk Use and Timing


Wrap rmc 2002 emissions modeling results

Preliminary 2002 modeling an iterative process nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

New data and corrections collected for each new simulation

As simulations complete

post QA products to RMC website: input/output file lists, emissions summary plots

SMOKE QA reports created and compared to previous simulations

SMOKE output files passed to air quality modelers for input to CMAQ

Technical documentation generated and archived to include in the RMC Annual Report

WRAP RMC 2002 Emissions Modeling Results


Pre02d inventory summary

Stationary Area nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

Upgraded NEI96 grown to 2002 with preliminary NEI2002 for non-WRAP states

Removed NH3 SCC’s represented by ENVIRON NH3 model from all U.S. inventories

Removed fugitive dust SCC’s repsresented from all U.S. inventories

Add VISTAS and CENRAP area-source fire inventories; removed these fire sources from the non-WRAP stationary area inventory

Stationary Point

Replaced CENRAP records in WRAP inventory with NEI2002 records

Add VISTAS hourly CEM inventory and temporal profiles for modeling sources in the VISTAS region

Pre02d Inventory Summary


Pre02d inventory summary1

Nonroad Mobile nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

Upgraded NEI96 grown to 2002 with preliminary NEI2002 for non-WRAP states

Removed refueling SCC’s represented by MOBILE6 from WRAP inventory

Split shipping SCC into in-port and ocean-going sources; allocated ocean-going sources to marine grid cells within 25 miles of the coast

On Road Mobile

Upgraded NEI99 to NEI2002 for non-WRAP states

Offshore Mobile

Add explicit offshore mobile category derived from non-road mobile shipping SCC’s.

Pre02d Inventory Summary


Pre02d inventory summary2

Fugitive Dust nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

Add explicit fugitive category that uses an inventory with county-based transport fractions

Windblown Dust

Add gridded emissions from WRAP windblown dust model for U.S. sources

Agricultural and Natural Ammonia

Add gridded emissions from ENVIRON NH3 model for U.S. sources; replacement emissions for SCC’s in the stationary area inventory

Pre02d Inventory Summary


Pre02d inventory summary3

Prescribed Fire nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

Replace WRAP 2002 prescribed fire inventory with revised inventories that differentiate between natural and anthropogenic events

Wildfire

Upgraded to revised 2002 inventory for WRAP states

Add 2002 VISTAS fire inventory

Biogenic

Upgraded white spruce and fir emissions factors based on revised U.S. EPA data

Canada

Upgraded all non-point inventory to preliminary 2000 National Canadian Inventory

Pre02d Inventory Summary


Pre02d inventory summary4

Wildfire nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

Upgraded to revised 2002 inventory for WRAP states

Add 2002 VISTAS fire inventory

Offshore Mobile

Add explicit offshore mobile category derived from non-road mobile shipping SCC’s.

Pre02d Inventory Summary


Annual us emissions totals preliminary 2002 wrap modeling
Annual US Emissions Totals nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPreliminary 2002 WRAP Modeling


Annual wrap region emissions totals preliminary 2002 wrap modeling
Annual WRAP Region Emissions Totals nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPreliminary 2002 WRAP Modeling


Area NH3 Model nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

Biogenic On Road Mobile Nonroad Mobile Road Dust

Fugitive Dust Windblown Dust

Point Offshore Point

NRx Fire ARx Fire

Wildfire Ag Fire


Pre02d co emissions contributions by wrap state color key on pie chart slide
Pre02d CO Emissions Contributions nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)


Pre02d nox emissions contributions by wrap state color key on pie chart slide
Pre02d NOx Emissions Contributions nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)


Pre02d nh3 emissions contributions by wrap state color key on pie chart slide
Pre02d NH3 Emissions Contributions nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)


Pre02d so2 emissions contributions by wrap state color key on pie chart slide
Pre02d SO2 Emissions Contributions nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)


Pre02d pm2 5 emissions contributions by wrap state color key on pie chart slide
Pre02d PM2.5 Emissions Contributions nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)


Pre02d pm10 emissions contributions by wrap state color key on pie chart slide
Pre02d PM10 Emissions Contributions nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)


Pre02d pmc emissions contributions by wrap state color key on pie chart slide
Pre02d PMC Emissions Contributions nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)


Pre02d stationary area source nox annual emissions density
Pre02d Stationary Area Source nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicNOx Annual Emissions Density


Pre02d fugitive dust pmc annual emissions density
Pre02d Fugitive Dust nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPMC Annual Emissions Density


Wrap 2002 stationary area source nh3 emissions density differences pre02d pre02c
WRAP 2002 Stationary Area Source nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicNH3 Emissions Density Differences: Pre02d-Pre02c


Pre02d environ nh3 model nh3 annual emissions density
Pre02d ENVIRON NH3 Model nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicNH3 Annual Emissions Density


Pre02d wrap windblown dust pm10 annual emissions density
Pre02d WRAP Windblown Dust nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPM10 Annual Emissions Density


Pre02d stationary point source so2 annual emissions density
Pre02d Stationary Point Source nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicSO2 Annual Emissions Density


Pre02d agricultural fire pm2 5 annual emissions density
Pre02d Agricultural Fire nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPM2.5 Annual Emissions Density


Pre02d anthropogenic prescribed fire pm2 5 annual emissions density
Pre02d Anthropogenic Prescribed Fire nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPM2.5 Annual Emissions Density


Pre02d natural prescribed fire pm2 5 annual emissions density
Pre02d Natural Prescribed Fire nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPM2.5 Annual Emissions Density


Pre02d wildfire pm2 5 annual emissions density
Pre02d Wildfire nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPM2.5 Annual Emissions Density


Pre02d natural prescribed fire pm2 5 annual emissions density1
Pre02d Natural Prescribed Fire nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenicPM2.5 Annual Emissions Density


Wrap rmc emissions modeling outstanding issues

Substitute actual 2002 RPO emissions inventories for place-holder NEI2002 inventories

Replace the 1999 BRAVO Mexico inventory with 2000 ERG inventory

Replace the 1999 BRAVO Gulf of Mexico offshore point inventory with the 2002 MMS inventory

Replace the preliminary 2000 Canadian inventory with the final 2000 inventory, including point sources

Model Canada and Mexico with local holidays

Add missing emissions sources: sea salt, volcanoes, in-flight air craft, commercial shipping lanes

Upgrade RMC computers to SMOKE version 2.1

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Outstanding Issues


Wrap rmc emissions modeling next steps

Include the CENRAP, MW RPO, and MANE-VU actual 2002 inventories in the WRAP 2002 modeling

Include the Canadian 2000 inventories including point sources in the WRAP 2002 modeling

Prioritize the missing emissions sources to add to the WRAP 2002 modeling and work on including the more important sources in the next round of modeling

Improve the Canadian and Mexican emissions data: spatial surrogates, temporal profiles, local holidays, etc.

Investigate the data gaps for Canada and Mexico that need to be filled to calculate emissions with the NH3 and windblown dust models

2018 future year base and sensitivity modeling

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Next Steps


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