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WRAP RMC 2002 Base Year Modeling and Analysis. Zac Adelman, Andy Holland, Kim Hanisak, James Wallace Carolina Environmental Program University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Mohammad Omary University of California, Riverside. WRAP Modeling Forum Meeting, San Francisco, CA March 8-9, 2005.

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wrap rmc 2002 base year modeling and analysis

WRAP RMC 2002 Base Year Modeling and Analysis

Zac Adelman, Andy Holland, Kim Hanisak, James Wallace

Carolina Environmental Program

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Mohammad Omary

University of California, Riverside

WRAP Modeling Forum Meeting, San Francisco, CA March 8-9, 2005

wrap rmc 2002 base year modeling and analysis1
2004 work plan emissions modeling tasks

WRAP 2002 emissions modeling database

Emissions modeling and 2004 milestones

Deliverables and QA products

2002 emissions modeling results

Outstanding issues and next steps

Discussion

WRAP RMC 2002 Base Year Modeling and Analysis
wrap rmc 2004 work plan emissions modeling goals
Build WRAP 2002 emissions database

Model and evaluate preliminary 2002 base emissions on the RPO 36-km and WRAP 12-km modeling grids

Simulate emissions perturbations for CMAQ sensitivity simulations

Model and evaluate emissions using the Advanced Plume Treatment for large stationary point sources

Evaluate missing emissions sources and explore representing them in the RMC modeling

Improve RMC emissions modeling infrastructure

WRAP RMC 2004 Work Plan Emissions Modeling Goals
wrap rmc 2004 work plan tasks and deliverables
Task 3-1: Base 2002 36-km emissions

Winter/summer by 01/2004

Annual by 03/2004

Task 3-2: Several upgrades to base emissions

TBD as data becomes available

Task 3-3: Base 2002 12-km emissions

07/2004

Task 3-4: Emissions sensitivity simulations

TBD as data becomes available

Task 3-5: APT emissions inventory

08/2004

WRAP RMC 2004 Work Plan Tasks and Deliverables
wrap 2002 emissions modeling database
Goal: Collect, model, and QA actual or placeholder 2002 emissions inventories for the U.S., Canada, and Mexico

U.S. inventory sources: WRAP inventory contractors (ENVIRON, E.H. Pechan), other RPO’s, U.S. EPA

Canadian inventory sources: U.S. EPA/Environment Canada

Mexican inventory sources: U.S. EPA/DRI

SMOKE ancillary emissions data: U.S. EPA/CEP

Meteorology data: WRAP RMC

WRAP 2002 Emissions Modeling Database
wrap 2002 emissions modeling database1
Inventory source categories: stationary area, onroad mobile, nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic

Source refinements made by the RMC for source apportionment and sensitivities

Stationary area  area, anthropogenic dust, NH3

Nonroad mobile  nonroad, offshore mobile, road dust

Stationary point  point, offshore point, fires

WRAP 2002 Emissions Modeling Database
wrap rmc emissions modeling 2004 milestones
Pre02a_36: Winter/summer test simulation for developing SMOKE scripts, testing QA protocol, and initial data collection

Pre02b_36: Annual simulation with actual 2002 WRAP inventories, NEI96 grown to 2002 inventories for rest of U.S., 1995 Canadian inventory, 1999 Mexican inventory

Pre02c_36: Annual simulation with addition of 2002 rx fires and wildfires and 2018 BSM ag fires to Pre02b

Pre02d_36and Pre02d_12: Annual simulations with U.S. windblown dust and NH3 emissions, actual 2002 VISTAS inventories, NEI2002 for rest of U.S., updated 2002 WRAP rx and wildfire inventories, 2000 Canadian non-point inventory

Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36: Annual simulations for assessing impact of revised WRAP 2002 fire inventories on modeling

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling 2004 Milestones
wrap rmc emissions modeling additional simulations
Pre02b_12: One-month test simulation for setting up modeling on the WRAP 12km grid

Pre02c_36_PinG: One-month test simulation for testing the Advanced Plume Treatment (APT) for top 100 NOx and SO2 point sources in the WRAP region

Pre02c_36s01: Two-month non-road diesel retrofit sensitivity

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Additional Simulations
wrap rmc emissions modeling deliverables and qa products
SMOKE scripts

ASCII emissions input file database

Binary CMAQ-ready emissions files (per source category per day)

SMOKE QA reports

Emissions QA graphics and websites summarizing each simulation

Bugzilla database of modeling correspondences

CVS archive of all model inputs at the RMC

Technical documentation for each major simulation

Tech transfer and maintenance of SMOKE and emissions modeling data and QA summaries

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Deliverables and QA Products
wrap rmc 2002 emissions modeling results
Preliminary 2002 modeling an iterative process

New data and corrections collected for each new simulation

As simulations complete

post QA products to RMC website: input/output file lists, emissions summary plots

SMOKE QA reports created and compared to previous simulations

SMOKE output files passed to air quality modelers for input to CMAQ

Technical documentation generated and archived to include in the RMC Annual Report

WRAP RMC 2002 Emissions Modeling Results
pre02d inventory summary
Stationary Area

Upgraded NEI96 grown to 2002 with preliminary NEI2002 for non-WRAP states

Removed NH3 SCC’s represented by ENVIRON NH3 model from all U.S. inventories

Removed fugitive dust SCC’s repsresented from all U.S. inventories

Add VISTAS and CENRAP area-source fire inventories; removed these fire sources from the non-WRAP stationary area inventory

Stationary Point

Replaced CENRAP records in WRAP inventory with NEI2002 records

Add VISTAS hourly CEM inventory and temporal profiles for modeling sources in the VISTAS region

Pre02d Inventory Summary
pre02d inventory summary1
Nonroad Mobile

Upgraded NEI96 grown to 2002 with preliminary NEI2002 for non-WRAP states

Removed refueling SCC’s represented by MOBILE6 from WRAP inventory

Split shipping SCC into in-port and ocean-going sources; allocated ocean-going sources to marine grid cells within 25 miles of the coast

On Road Mobile

Upgraded NEI99 to NEI2002 for non-WRAP states

Offshore Mobile

Add explicit offshore mobile category derived from non-road mobile shipping SCC’s.

Pre02d Inventory Summary
pre02d inventory summary2
Fugitive Dust

Add explicit fugitive category that uses an inventory with county-based transport fractions

Windblown Dust

Add gridded emissions from WRAP windblown dust model for U.S. sources

Agricultural and Natural Ammonia

Add gridded emissions from ENVIRON NH3 model for U.S. sources; replacement emissions for SCC’s in the stationary area inventory

Pre02d Inventory Summary
pre02d inventory summary3
Prescribed Fire

Replace WRAP 2002 prescribed fire inventory with revised inventories that differentiate between natural and anthropogenic events

Wildfire

Upgraded to revised 2002 inventory for WRAP states

Add 2002 VISTAS fire inventory

Biogenic

Upgraded white spruce and fir emissions factors based on revised U.S. EPA data

Canada

Upgraded all non-point inventory to preliminary 2000 National Canadian Inventory

Pre02d Inventory Summary
pre02d inventory summary4
Wildfire

Upgraded to revised 2002 inventory for WRAP states

Add 2002 VISTAS fire inventory

Offshore Mobile

Add explicit offshore mobile category derived from non-road mobile shipping SCC’s.

Pre02d Inventory Summary
slide22

Area NH3 Model

Biogenic On Road Mobile Nonroad Mobile Road Dust

Fugitive Dust Windblown Dust

Point Offshore Point

NRx Fire ARx Fire

Wildfire Ag Fire

wrap rmc emissions modeling outstanding issues
Substitute actual 2002 RPO emissions inventories for place-holder NEI2002 inventories

Replace the 1999 BRAVO Mexico inventory with 2000 ERG inventory

Replace the 1999 BRAVO Gulf of Mexico offshore point inventory with the 2002 MMS inventory

Replace the preliminary 2000 Canadian inventory with the final 2000 inventory, including point sources

Model Canada and Mexico with local holidays

Add missing emissions sources: sea salt, volcanoes, in-flight air craft, commercial shipping lanes

Upgrade RMC computers to SMOKE version 2.1

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Outstanding Issues
wrap rmc emissions modeling next steps
Include the CENRAP, MW RPO, and MANE-VU actual 2002 inventories in the WRAP 2002 modeling

Include the Canadian 2000 inventories including point sources in the WRAP 2002 modeling

Prioritize the missing emissions sources to add to the WRAP 2002 modeling and work on including the more important sources in the next round of modeling

Improve the Canadian and Mexican emissions data: spatial surrogates, temporal profiles, local holidays, etc.

Investigate the data gaps for Canada and Mexico that need to be filled to calculate emissions with the NH3 and windblown dust models

2018 future year base and sensitivity modeling

WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Next Steps
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