Jamaica’s Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”
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Jamaica’s Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”. Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. Douglas Gamble Department of Geography and Geology University of North Carolina at Wilmington. March 6, 2008

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Jamaica’s Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”

Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis

Atmospheric Science Program

Department of Geography

East Carolina University

Dr. Douglas Gamble

Department of Geography and Geology

University of North Carolina at Wilmington

March 6, 2008

2008 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop


Outline
OUTLINE

  • Economic Motivation

  • Defining the Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”

  • MSD variability and patterns

  • Modified Pressure Index

  • Vegetation Response

  • Future Work



MOTIVATION

GDP

per capita

Jamaica is a relatively poor* nation that largely depends on its agricultural yields for both export and domestic consumption. An improved understanding of the mechanisms of the Mid Summer “Dry-Spell” can have significant impacts upon agricultural productivity and economic prosperity.

* Definition of poor neglects significant cultural wealth that Jamaica possesses.

( CIA World FactBook 2007 )


Data sets
Data Sets

  • NCEP NCAR monthly Reanalysis

    2.5 degree gridded dataset

  • NASA Global Precipitation

  • Climatology Project (GPCP) V2

  • Terra MODIS spectral imagery


GPCP CLIMATOLOGY 1979 - 2007

Mid Summer “Dry-Spell” Signature

mm day-1


Mid summer dry spell conceptual model
Mid-Summer “Dry Spell” Conceptual Model

MSD timing

July

May

NAM

H

divergence

upwelling


Mid summer dry spell pattern
Mid-Summer “Dry Spell” Pattern

Mean pentad gauge precip. Apr. - Nov. 1979-2007


Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”

Inter-Annual Variability

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


Average Sea Level Pressure (NCEP NCAR Reanalysis)

Apr.–Nov. 1979 - 2007

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER


Monthly Caribbean Low Level Jet Averages (925mb) Apr.-Nov. 1979-2007

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER


Monthly GPCP Caribbean Precip. Averages 1979-2007

Apr.-Nov. 1979 - 2007

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER


Average 925mb divergence 1979 2007
Average 925mb Divergence 1979-20071979-2007

JULY

JUNE

AUG.

SEPT.


Average differences july minus may
Average Differences 1979-2007July minus May

+4mb

increase in NASH

+5 ms-1

increase in CLLJ

-2mm / day

decrease in precip.


Modified bermuda high index p montego bay p 30n 40w
Modified Bermuda High Index 1979-2007P Montego Bay – P 30N, 40W

BHI

30N, 40W

MBHI

Montego Bay



Modified BHI 1979-2007

2002 GPCP Montego Bay

Early Season MBHI

1983 GPCP Montego Bay


Vegetation response via remote sensing
Vegetation Response Via Remote Sensing 1979-2007

Terra MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer)

36 Spectral Bands covering the Earth every 1-2 days

250m resolution

Jamaican Region Imagery delivered every 16 days

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Classification through ERDAS Imagine software


April 2006 1979-2007

NIR - red

________

NDVI =

NIR + red

October 2006


Future work
FUTURE WORK 1979-2007

NDVI TIME SERIES CLASSIFICATION

FARMING PERSPECTIVE

ENSO FORCINGS

For more info: [email protected]


Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements 1979-2007

  • Dr. Scott Curtis

  • Dr. Douglas Gamble

  • Dr. Rosana Nieto-Ferreira

  • ECU Geography Department

  • Dr. Peter Robinson and the SERCC

  • National Science Foundation


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