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A Sinking Lid on National Tobacco Supply for the Tobacco Endgame

Wilson N, Thomson G, Edwards R, Blakely T. A Sinking Lid on National Tobacco Supply for the Tobacco Endgame. Workshop on Endgame Strategies in Tobacco Control, 19-21 June 2012. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan School of Public Health.

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A Sinking Lid on National Tobacco Supply for the Tobacco Endgame

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  1. Wilson N, Thomson G, Edwards R, Blakely T. A Sinking Lid on National Tobacco Supply for the Tobacco Endgame. Workshop on Endgame Strategies in Tobacco Control, 19-21 June 2012. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan School of Public Health. A Sinking Lid on National Tobacco Supply for the Tobacco Endgame Nick Wilson, George Thomson, Richard Edwards, Tony Blakely Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand (Email: nick.wilson@otago.ac.nz)

  2. 0 Sinking lid – the proposed process • Annually reducing quota of tobacco supplied to a national market (eg, to zero in 10 years). • Would require a law that enabled a government to: • Run auctions for (reducing) annualquota to tobacco companies (as per annual EPA pollutant permit auctions for SO2, NOx; some fishing quota systems). Or: • Enforce annual % reductions for each tobacco company’s quota (from baseline market share). 2

  3. At the final point, any residual nicotine dependent individuals (some possible options): switch to NRT / minimal harm nicotine sources grow-your-own tobacco (within legal limits) licensed smoker system (government supplied tobacco)? 0 3

  4. Promotion and responses Senator Michael Enzi (R-WY), “Help End Addiction to Lethal Tobacco Habits Act. S. 1834. US Senate, 2007” Further arguments for: Laugesen et al (NZ Med J 2010;123(1314):55-67); Thomson et al (Tob Control 2010;19:431-5) Maori Affairs Select Committee of the NZ Government (2010) – recommended further consideration – but not operationalized 0 4

  5. Sinking lid – Advantages Likely to be synergistic with many other tobacco control interventions & some other endgame strategies (eg, reducing nicotine levels) Good analogies that work (reducing quota & air pollutants, fishing quota, phased elimination of leaded gasoline) Can be linked to a defined end date for all sales – helps focus the health sector & smokers can’t easily self-exempt. Extra auction revenue – may provide funds for tobacco control enhancements 0 5

  6. Sinking lid – Disadvantages Passing the enabling law – a hurdle facing tobacco industry opposition (less so in small jurisdictions)? As price goes up political pressure from smokers/industry  risk of slowing down/abandoning policy. As price goes up  cross-border smuggling (less of an issue for some countries). 0 6

  7. Sinking lid – Disadvantages (Contd) In producer countries illegal diversion of tobacco from growers. Risk of auction rigging in countries with high corruption levels and collusion between companies (may require governments to pre-arranged reserve supply agreements from government-owned companies eg, China NT Corp) Risk of supply disruptions near end (companies pull out early?) 0 7

  8. Sinking lid – Next Steps? Further Review – experience with other quota systems (pollutants, fisheries) Modelling comparisons – with other endgame scenarios (HALYs saved) Acceptability – key informant interviews (eg, government officials and politicians) Test out in an island jurisdiction (eg, NZ, the Australian State of Tasmania, a Pacific Island eg, Guam has had recent large tobacco tax increase) 0 8

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