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Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

Public Opinion and Foreign Policy. Public’s Views on Foreign Policy. 1) Uninformed and Foolish-. --local politics. --volatile and random. --masses not the elites. Effect: No Effect to Hurts FP. 2) Structured and Stable. -- Lack of Specific Information.

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Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

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  1. Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

  2. Public’s Views on Foreign Policy 1) Uninformed and Foolish- --local politics --volatile and random --masses not the elites Effect: No Effect to Hurts FP

  3. 2) Structured and Stable -- Lack of Specific Information -- Uses Structures to Organize FP Ideas Based on US Involvement and How to Be Involved Cooperation Intlsm and Militant Intlsm

  4. Cooperative Internationalism Yes No Militant Internationalism Internationalist Hardliner No Yes Accomodationist Isolationist

  5. Accmdt Intlst Isol CI HL Hardliner Isol Intlsts CI MI

  6. | Militant Intlsm pid | low MI medium MI high MI | Total -------------+---------------------------------+---------- Democrat | 21 9 15 | 45 | 46.67 20.00 33.33 | 100.00 | 42.86 18.37 30.61 | 30.61 -------------+---------------------------------+---------- Republican | 11 21 17 | 49 | 22.45 42.86 34.69 | 100.00 | 22.45 42.86 34.69 | 33.33 -------------+---------------------------------+---------- Independent | 12 11 10 | 33 | 36.36 33.33 30.30 | 100.00 | 24.49 22.45 20.41 | 22.45 -------------+---------------------------------+---------- Other/noPref | 5 8 7 | 20 | 25.00 40.00 35.00 | 100.00 | 10.20 16.33 14.29 | 13.61 -------------+---------------------------------+---------- Total | 49 49 49 | 147 | 33.33 33.33 33.33 | 100.00 | 100.00 100.00 100.00 | 100.00

  7. Force if | Iran is | building | nuclear | Militant Intlsm weapon | low MI medium MI high MI | Total -----------+---------------------------------+---------- support | 27 28 34 | 89 | 55.10 59.57 72.34 | 62.24 -----------+---------------------------------+---------- oppose | 22 19 13 | 54 | 44.90 40.43 27.66 | 37.76 -----------+---------------------------------+---------- Total | 49 47 47 | 143 | 100.00 100.00 100.00 | 100.00

  8. Effect: Can Affect FP (Jentleson) 3) Public Mood --sets bounds, not day to day -- affected by government and external events

  9. Public Moods A) Cold War Mood- Consensus B) Vietnam Syndrome C) Self Interested Mood D) Pragmatic Internationalism E) Anti-Terror Mood

  10. Diversionary Theory, Wag the Dog, and Rally Around the Flag Domestic Problems lead Presidents to engage in Conflict

  11. Assumptions of Diversionary Theory --President wants to stay in power --President needs electoral support to stay in power --Foreign policy actions can increase a leader's popularity

  12. How does Intl Conflict Increase Popularity 1) In Group, Out Group - Rally Around the Flag 2) Demonstrate competency Examples: Clinton and Lewinsky Iraq, Diversion from the Economy

  13. Problems with the Theory: 1) rally effect is short Start of 2003 Iraq war- March 19 July

  14. 2) Wars can be very costly 3) No systematic evidence- lots of conflict not preceded by domestic problems 4) wrong for a leader to use force for personal gain

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