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Georgia Construction Aggregate Association Management Workshop February 17, 2009 Daniel M Harrington. AGENDA. Global Cement Industry North American Cement Industry North American / Georgia Key Statistics Challenges and Solutions. Global Cement Industry. World Cement Consumption.
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Georgia Construction Aggregate Association Management WorkshopFebruary 17, 2009Daniel M Harrington
AGENDA • Global Cement Industry • North American Cement Industry • North American / Georgia Key Statistics • Challenges and Solutions
World Cement Consumption Source: US Geological Survey
World Cement Consumption Source: U.S.G.S., U.S. Census Bureau, International Cement Review, Statistics Canada.
World Cement Consumption Source: US Geological Survey
China is slowing down more than expected Exportable surplus acc. To BNP is 60 Million tons Global market has become a “Buyers’ market” again, after four years FOB prices are declining around the world More cement will hit mature markets with low freight costs and overcapacity Africa and NAM will be threatened by low-cost cement imports Surplus management will become a major issue Major Trends in International Cement 2009
North American Clinker Capacity (2008 Estimate) Units: 000 Metric Tons Source: 2007 PCA Labor Energy Input Survey
Capacity Expansion Share of U.S. Expansions 2008: 0.0% 2009: 0.0% 2010: 42.9% 2011: 61.7% Thousand Metric Tons Stated U.S. Capacity Expansions Stated Southeast Capacity Expansions Source: PCA
Portland Cement Consumption (MMT) Source: PCA
CementConsumption Source: PCA
Cement and Clinker Imports (MMT) Source: PCA
Cement & Clinker Imports by Census District Source: PCA
Cement Intensity Ratio (000 Tons per $ Billion Constructing Source: PCA
Single Family Permits WA NH ME MT VT ND OR MN ID NY MA SD WI RI WY MI CT IA PA NJ NE OH NV IN DE UT IL CO MD WV CA VA KS MO KY NC TN AZ OK NM AR SC GA AL MS LA TX FL HI Single Family Permits Projected Peak-to-Trough Decline Projected Peak-to-Trough Decline 0% to -51% -52%% to -61% -62% to -75% -76% > Source: PCA
State Fiscal Health WA NH ME MT VT ND OR MN ID NY MA SD WI RI WY MI CT IA PA NJ NE OH NV IN DE UT IL CO MD WV CA VA KS MO KY NC TN AZ OK NM AR SC GA AL MS LA TX AK FL HI State Fiscal Health Deficit Share of Total Expenditures Deficit Share of Total Expenditures 1.1% to 3.6% 0% to 1% 3.7% + No Shortfall Source: PCA Source: PCA
States in Recession WA NH ME MT VT ND OR MN ID NY MA SD WI RI WY MI CT IA PA NJ NE OH NV IN DE UT IL CO MD WV CA VA KS MO KY NC TN AZ OK NM AR SC GA AL MS LA TX AK FL HI States in Recession As of October, 2008 Recession At Risk Growing Source PCA Source: PCA
WA NH ME MT VT ND OR MN ID NY MA SD WI RI WY MI CT IA PA NJ NE OH NV IN DE UT IL CO MD WV CA VA KS MO KY NC TN AZ OK NM AR SC GA AL MS LA TX FL HI 2009 Fiscal Deficits Deficit % Share of Total Expenditures 0-10% No Deficit 11%-15% 16% + Source: PCA/Census
FISCAL HEALTH - GEORGIA Surplus/Deficit Index, 2005=100 Surplus Deficit Source: PCA
Georgia Construction Permits Units Source: PCA
Georgia Housing Permits Units Source: PCA
Cement 2005 Cement Composition - Southeast 2010 2005 Nonresidential Public Residential Source: PCA
Cement Consumption Source: PCA
Challenges and Solutions • We’re in a recession and the local governments have no money • Economy recovery plan
Portland Cement Consumption Declines Continue Through 2010. Peak (2005)-to-Trough (2009) Decline: 40 MMT (Worst in History) (On a Percentage Basis: -32%) Source: PCA
Construction Turning Points – U.S. 1996 = 100 Source: PCA
Portland Cement Consumption Declines Continue Through 2010. Peak (2005)-to-Trough (2009) Decline: 40 MMT (Worst in History) (On a Percentage Basis: -32%)
Cement Consumption: U.S. Long Term Million Metric Tons Source: PCA
Stimulus Impacts Source: PCA
Cement Consumption – Georgia 1998 - 2012 (000) Metric Tons Source: PCA
Challenges and Solutions • Industry has downsized, consolidated and globalization will continue to occur • Federations of associations • Regulatory concerns will intensify (whether water, air, or solid) • Manufacturing and engineering solutions to environmental needs
Labor Resources Employee Hours per 000 Tons Produced (US & Canada Source: PCA
Energy ResourcesMillion BTUs per 000 Tons Produced Source: PCA US & Canadian Labor –Energy input survey
Challenges and Solutions • The Greening of America • Sustainability / Environmentally friendly issues will rise • Promotion • New products into old markets and Old products into new markets
Competitive Opportunity? Producer Price Index, 2003 =100
More Solutions • Political Action – Grass roots • Embrace the “Green Opportunities” • Stakeholders • Employees • “Pull through” marketing • Cost Leadership
New Cement Based (Aggregate) Products Gaining Popularity in Southeast
Inverted Base Construction NEW Asphaltic Concrete Paving For Protection of GAB Layer Graded Aggregate Base Cement Treated Agg Base 2008 Georgia Subgrade
Pervious Concrete Pavement“Green Movement” Pervious Concrete holds up and cools runoff When used as a Stormwater system in GA, needs an Aggregate recharge bed 6-12” Typically 6” pervious in parking areas High density ABG pavers/Pug mill opportunity