Crime Statistics, what do we need them for? A discussion based on the situation in the Netherlands

1. Crime Statistics, what do we need them for?A discussion based on the situation in the Netherlands Paul Smit Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) Ministry of Justice

2. Recorded crime, 1960 - 2003

3. Why Crime Statistics Passively: • To see what happens, look at trends, and act accordingly Actively: • To measure the success of policies • To help defining policies

4. Contents • Crime Statistics in the Netherlands • Examples • The policy program: towards a safer society • Modelling the Criminal Justice system • Offenders from ethnic minorities • Discussion / Conclusions

6. Main characteristics • (Too) many statistics

7. CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A. Victim Surveys POLS Police Monitor Safety Mon Police registr. CBS Police statistics HKS System Police suspects Pros. input CBS Court Statistics OMData OBJD Pros. decisions Court decisions Offenders Prison pop. CBS Prison Statistics TULP

9. Observation (1) When the main (or sole) user of the statistics is also the only provider of the data the statistics are based on, there is less need for a central statistical bureau for these statistics

10. Main characteristics • (Too) many statistics • Isolated statistics

11. Example 1 The policy program: towards a safer society Precise targets: • Reduction of crime in public spaces • Opinion of police and feelings of safety • Repeat offenders

12. Observation (2) It can be very dangerous to make statements on the success of policy measures based on outcome statistics alone

13. Example 2 Modelling the Criminal Justice system • Econometric model, based on aggragate statistics

14. Prognosemodel Justitiële Ketens: Veiligheidsketen volwassenen, versie 1.1 Rechtsbijstand Piketdiensten Rechtsbijstand Vreemdelingenbewaring Politie Voorlopige hechtenis DJI Capaciteitsbehoefte vreemdelingenbewaring Vreemdelingen Vreemdelingenbewaring Reclassering Vroeghulpbezoek Reclassering Vroeghulpinterventies Tolken Vreemdelingendiensten Politie Verdachten Schadefonds geweldsmisdrijven Aantal verzoeken Schadefonds Geweldsmisdrijven Toegekende verzoeken ZM Ontslag vanrechtsvervolging ZM Getuige/tolk kantonzaak ZM Getuige/tolk EK-zaak Externe factoren Politie Misdrijven ZM Enkelvoudige kamer Hoger Beroep Ontnemingsmaatregelen EK-zaak Slachtofferhulp Aantal cliënten Externe factoren CJIB Ontnemingen ZM Vrijspraak ZM Afdoeningen ZM Meervoudige kamer Hoger Beroep Ontnemingsmaatregelen MK-zaak NFI Aangeboden zaken Hoger Beroep Cassatie ZM Getuige/tolk MK-zaak NFI Onderzoeksaanvragen CJIB LCA instroom Tolken TBS Reclassering Voorlichtingsrapportages Politie Ophelderingen Middelen politie Reclassering Maatregelrapportages Tolken Gevangeniswezen Reclassering Adviesrapportages Hoger Beroep TBS-opleggingen Schadeloosstelling Aantal verzoeken Hoger Beroep Aantal gevangenisstraffen DJI VH bij TBS Reclassering Toeleiding zorg Rechtsbijstand Ambtshalve straftoevoegingen Externe factoren Tolken Advocatuur Middelen ZM OM Instroom OM Dagvaarding Rechtsbijstand Reguliere straftoevoegingen Externe factoren Schadeloossteling Toegekende verzoeken DJI Penitentiaire Programma’s Reclassering Reïntegratieprogramma’s OM Werkstraf DJI Directe capaciteitsbehoefte OM Leerstraf Tolken Reclassering OM Ontneming wederrechtelijk voordeel Hoger Beroep Werkstraffen ZM Schuldig Hoger Beroep Leerstraffen OM Geldsom CJIB Trias via COMPAS Hoger Beroep Taakstraffen DJI VH bij taakstraffen OM Transactie OM Afdoeningen Middelen OM OM Sepot OM Technischsepot DJI Capaciteitsbehoefte Gevangeniswezen DJI Indirecte capaciteitsbehoefte Hoger Beroep Boetes OM Onvoorwaardelijk beleidssepot CJIB Percentage misluktetaakstraffen OM Beleidssepot OM Voorwaardelijk beleidssepot CJIB Percentagemislukte boetes CJIB Trias direct CJIB Schadevergoeding CJIB Beroep OvJ CJIB Beroep kantonrechter Externe factoren CJIB Instroom WAHV CJIB Verzet

15. Example 2 Modelling the Criminal Justice System • Econometric model, based on aggragate statistics • Also external factors • Knowledge of the working (the expected behaviour) of the Criminal Justice System

16. Observation (3) Integrating different areas of Crime Statistics and Statistics from other areas, even if this integration is on an aggragate level only, is very useful in observing the working of the Criminal Justice System as a whole and the expected outcome of specific policy measures

17. Example 3 Offenders from ethnic minorities • Offender data are linked (on individual level) with demographic data. This gives information on ethnicity • These data are linked to other social and economic statistics • Helpful for implementing specific policy programs

18. Observation (4) Integrating Crime Statistics on an individual level with statistics from other areas is very useful in understanding crime related phenomena and in formulating specific policy measures

19. CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A. Victim Surveys Integrated Comprehensive Victim Survey Police registr. CBS Police statistics HKS System Police suspects Pros. input CBS Court Statistics OMData OBJD Pros. decisions Court decisions Offenders Prison pop. CBS Prison Statistics TULP

21. Link with other social statistics

22. Main conclusions The big challenge in the coming years is integration of statistics, preferably on an individual level. Within the different areas of the Criminal Justice System, but also with other (demographic, economic and social) statistics.

23. Main conclusions (cont.) This in order to get a better understanding of the working of the Criminal Justice System itself and the influence of external factors. Only then a fact based policy making is possible. To achieve this a central statistical bureau, having access to statistics in different areas is very important.