Economic recovery plan
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Economic Recovery Plan. Mogadishu, 13 th June 2013. Overview. Outline Key linkages Organizing the process Key development partners Possible WB support I-PRSP? Key questions Timelines. ERP Outline. Stage 1: Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy (ready for Brussels conference)

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Economic Recovery Plan

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Economic recovery plan

Economic Recovery Plan

Mogadishu, 13th June 2013


Overview

Overview

  • Outline

  • Key linkages

  • Organizing the process

  • Key development partners

  • Possible WB support

  • I-PRSP?

  • Key questions

  • Timelines


Erp outline

ERP Outline

Stage 1: Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy (ready for Brussels conference)

  • Short vision statement on Economic and Social Recovery (agreed at top level)

  • Guiding principles and policy framework (including overview of economy)

  • Outline macroeconomic and fiscal framework

  • Priorities for quick socio-economic recovery with provisional flagship intervention areas

    Products:

  • Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy report (20 pages), in English & Somali

  • Broad Outline of the ERP and Roadmap for completion of the Plan (key steps with dates and deliverables)

  • Roadmap to I-PRSP, based on he one-plan principle


Erp outline contd

ERP Outline contd

Stage 2: Full Economic Recovery Plan (ready by the end of the year)

  • Stage 1 Strategy report (some Sections expanded/updated)

  • Expanded macroeconomic and fiscal framework

  • Revenue mobilization strategy

  • Priority sectors for quick economic recovery, including some flagship projects, agreed through regional consultations and line ministries and within well-defined financial resource scenarios (i.e. not an un-prioritized and un-costed wish list)

  • Intergovernmental implementation: framework for implementing the ERP country-wide

  • 2014 Budget documents reflect the report (Macro-fiscal framework etc.)

    Products:

  • Full Economic Recovery Plan (40 pages plus annexes), in English & Somali

  • More detailed reports/annexes on: revenue strategy and regional linkages

  • Annual planning and budget guidelines for 2015 and beyond

  • (If necessary) Supplementary Budget to accommodate funded priority projects


Erp main objectives

ERP Main Objectives

  • Develop common vision among leadership for FGS pathway to economic recovery

    • Possibly including Economic committee in parliament?

  • Set out principles to guide this transition

    • Role of FGS in promoting economic recovery?

    • Role of FGS in service delivery?

    • Role of FGS with respect to regions/districts? Functions ass.

    • Role of development partners?

  • Roadmap for implementation through annual planning and budgeting – guidelines as an Annex

  • Identify priority sectors for a quick economic recovery

  • Lay foundations for simple macroeconomic framework (including database)

  • Identify options for improved revenue mobilization


Erp objectives contd

ERP Objectives contd

  • Some ideas to bear in mind:

    • Keep it simple

    • One plan/process: avoid multiple planning exercises

    • Manage expectations

    • Be inclusive (sectors, regions, parliament, civil society, donors etc)

    • Remain focused on objectives


Key linkages

Key Linkages

  • New Deal

    • Involve New Deal Desk team, key development partners (UN)

    • One vision, one plan

    • Economic Foundations

    • Revenue and Services

  • Compact

  • Annual budget – involve DG Budget and team

  • PFM Reform Strategy & Action Plan

  • Aid strategy development process

  • Aid financing principles & architecture

  • Brussels conference (September)


Key linkages contd one possible approach to consider

Key Linkages contdone possible approach to consider…


Organizing the process

Organizing the process

  • Ministerial Task Force (can we use existing body such as New Deal high-level taskforce?)

    • Members: Minister of Finance and Economic Planning (chair TBD?), other key ministries, OoP, OPM

    • Role: Strategic direction for the process, keep Cabinet informed, approve key decisions

  • Technical working group

    • Members: MoFEP, other key ministries relevant NGO’s and the private sector, OoP, OPM, CBS, development partners

    • Role: Draft the plan

  • New Deal/Compact groups (especially Economic Foundations and Revenue and Services), leading to…

  • …Sector working groups

    • Members: sector line ministries, development partners

    • Role: Draft sector inputs to the plan


Organizing the process contd

Organizing the process contd

Ministerial taskforce

(New Deal?)

New Deal High-Level Taskforce

Technical working group

New Deal Groups [To start before Brussels]

Economic Foundations

Revenue & Services


Key development partners

Key development partners

  • Based on PFM donor coordination matrix, the following development partners could be involved in direct support to MoFEP:

    • AfDB

    • EU

    • IMF

    • Sweden

    • UNDP

    • World Bank

  • Other development partners supporting relevant sector ministries may also contribute support


Wb support to mofep

WB Support to MoFEP

  • PREM team (overall support): Geoff Handley, Ian Mills, AlirezaZadeh

  • Specific additional consultancy inputs support:

    • Revenue mobilization

    • Macro-fiscal framework

    • Planning & budgeting guidelines

    • Macroeconomic database & statistical capacity

    • Inter-governmental linkages


Interim prsp

Interim-PRSP?

  • This is required to qualify for debt relief

  • Usually comprises:

    • Simple macro-fiscal framework

    • Summary of available evidence on poverty

    • Roadmap towards a more comprehensive & participatory plan


Key questions

Key questions

  • Should the plan cover all sector ministries or primary economic ones?

  • How can MoFEP build a consensus with OoP and OPM?

  • Proliferation of plans – what are we adding? Mapping?


Tentative timeline

Tentative Timeline


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