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Economic Recovery Plan. Mogadishu, 13 th June 2013. Overview. Outline Key linkages Organizing the process Key development partners Possible WB support I-PRSP? Key questions Timelines. ERP Outline. Stage 1: Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy (ready for Brussels conference)

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economic recovery plan

Economic Recovery Plan

Mogadishu, 13th June 2013

overview
Overview
  • Outline
  • Key linkages
  • Organizing the process
  • Key development partners
  • Possible WB support
  • I-PRSP?
  • Key questions
  • Timelines
erp outline
ERP Outline

Stage 1: Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy (ready for Brussels conference)

  • Short vision statement on Economic and Social Recovery (agreed at top level)
  • Guiding principles and policy framework (including overview of economy)
  • Outline macroeconomic and fiscal framework
  • Priorities for quick socio-economic recovery with provisional flagship intervention areas

Products:

  • Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy report (20 pages), in English & Somali
  • Broad Outline of the ERP and Roadmap for completion of the Plan (key steps with dates and deliverables)
  • Roadmap to I-PRSP, based on he one-plan principle
erp outline contd
ERP Outline contd

Stage 2: Full Economic Recovery Plan (ready by the end of the year)

  • Stage 1 Strategy report (some Sections expanded/updated)
  • Expanded macroeconomic and fiscal framework
  • Revenue mobilization strategy
  • Priority sectors for quick economic recovery, including some flagship projects, agreed through regional consultations and line ministries and within well-defined financial resource scenarios (i.e. not an un-prioritized and un-costed wish list)
  • Intergovernmental implementation: framework for implementing the ERP country-wide
  • 2014 Budget documents reflect the report (Macro-fiscal framework etc.)

Products:

  • Full Economic Recovery Plan (40 pages plus annexes), in English & Somali
  • More detailed reports/annexes on: revenue strategy and regional linkages
  • Annual planning and budget guidelines for 2015 and beyond
  • (If necessary) Supplementary Budget to accommodate funded priority projects
erp main objectives
ERP Main Objectives
  • Develop common vision among leadership for FGS pathway to economic recovery
    • Possibly including Economic committee in parliament?
  • Set out principles to guide this transition
    • Role of FGS in promoting economic recovery?
    • Role of FGS in service delivery?
    • Role of FGS with respect to regions/districts? Functions ass.
    • Role of development partners?
  • Roadmap for implementation through annual planning and budgeting – guidelines as an Annex
  • Identify priority sectors for a quick economic recovery
  • Lay foundations for simple macroeconomic framework (including database)
  • Identify options for improved revenue mobilization
erp objectives contd
ERP Objectives contd
  • Some ideas to bear in mind:
    • Keep it simple
    • One plan/process: avoid multiple planning exercises
    • Manage expectations
    • Be inclusive (sectors, regions, parliament, civil society, donors etc)
    • Remain focused on objectives
key linkages
Key Linkages
  • New Deal
    • Involve New Deal Desk team, key development partners (UN)
    • One vision, one plan
    • Economic Foundations
    • Revenue and Services
  • Compact
  • Annual budget – involve DG Budget and team
  • PFM Reform Strategy & Action Plan
  • Aid strategy development process
  • Aid financing principles & architecture
  • Brussels conference (September)
organizing the process
Organizing the process
  • Ministerial Task Force (can we use existing body such as New Deal high-level taskforce?)
    • Members: Minister of Finance and Economic Planning (chair TBD?), other key ministries, OoP, OPM
    • Role: Strategic direction for the process, keep Cabinet informed, approve key decisions
  • Technical working group
    • Members: MoFEP, other key ministries relevant NGO’s and the private sector, OoP, OPM, CBS, development partners
    • Role: Draft the plan
  • New Deal/Compact groups (especially Economic Foundations and Revenue and Services), leading to…
  • …Sector working groups
    • Members: sector line ministries, development partners
    • Role: Draft sector inputs to the plan
organizing the process contd
Organizing the process contd

Ministerial taskforce

(New Deal?)

New Deal High-Level Taskforce

Technical working group

New Deal Groups [To start before Brussels]

Economic Foundations

Revenue & Services

key development partners
Key development partners
  • Based on PFM donor coordination matrix, the following development partners could be involved in direct support to MoFEP:
    • AfDB
    • EU
    • IMF
    • Sweden
    • UNDP
    • World Bank
  • Other development partners supporting relevant sector ministries may also contribute support
wb support to mofep
WB Support to MoFEP
  • PREM team (overall support): Geoff Handley, Ian Mills, AlirezaZadeh
  • Specific additional consultancy inputs support:
    • Revenue mobilization
    • Macro-fiscal framework
    • Planning & budgeting guidelines
    • Macroeconomic database & statistical capacity
    • Inter-governmental linkages
interim prsp
Interim-PRSP?
  • This is required to qualify for debt relief
  • Usually comprises:
    • Simple macro-fiscal framework
    • Summary of available evidence on poverty
    • Roadmap towards a more comprehensive & participatory plan
key questions
Key questions
  • Should the plan cover all sector ministries or primary economic ones?
  • How can MoFEP build a consensus with OoP and OPM?
  • Proliferation of plans – what are we adding? Mapping?
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