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September 3, 2014. High Speed Rail Viability in Texas. Stephen P. Mattingly Associate Professor Department of Civil Engineering University of Texas at Arlington Supporting Researchers: Katie Larsen , UT - Austin Antonio Massidda , Univ. of Vanderbilt Sunil Madanu , UTA.

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high speed rail viability in texas

September 3, 2014

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

Stephen P. Mattingly

Associate Professor

Department of Civil Engineering

University of Texas at Arlington

Supporting Researchers:

Katie Larsen, UT - Austin

Antonio Massidda,Univ. of Vanderbilt

Sunil Madanu, UTA

slide2

Overview

  • What is High Speed Rail?
  • Current Status of High Speed Rail in Texas
  • Texas vs. Other Established Systems
  • A Unique Opportunity
  • Issues to Resolve/Address
  • What Does High Speed Rail Really Mean for Texas?

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide3

Background

Definition of High Speed Rail (HSR):

  • European Union:
  • Minimum Operating Speeds
  • 120 mph – Existing Rail Lines
  • 160 mph – New HSRs

U.S. DOT:

“Rail service that is time-competitive with air and/or auto for travel markets in the approximate range of 100 to 500 miles.”

HSR Lines Scenarios

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide4

HSR in Japan

Early efforts :

1964 Japan: HSR line Toyko to Shin-Osaka

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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HSR in Europe

Early efforts :

1977 Italy: HSR line Rome – Florence

High Speed Train (HST) “Pendolino”operated at speeds up to 155 mph

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

slide6

HSR in Europe

1981 France – HSR line Paris – Lyon

HST Train à Grand Vitesse (TGV) operated at speeds up to 160 mph

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide7

What Role Does High Speed Rail Serve?

  • Intended for regional (intercity trips)
    • Not intra-region (cannot maintain maximum speed for long periods before needing to brake)
    • Typically, 100-500 mile trips
    • Example: Houston – Atlanta, ~ 790 miles,
      • 2 hours by air
      • Over 4 hours at maximum HSR speed with no stops
  • May be subsidized or funded by the government
  • Passengers pay by the person-trip (fare) rather than vehicle
  • Version of public transport even if operated by private firm or concession
    • Similar to air
    • Dissimilar to auto
  • Outcome: HSR competes with air in limited niche
    • Limited SOV vehicles
    • Minimum fare Washington DC to Philadelphia, $111

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor

2000 USA – The Northeast Corridor

HSR length 450 miles

Acela Express HST

Maximum Operating Speed

150 mph

Average Operating Speed

72 – 125 mph

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide9

HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor

The impact of the Acela Express on airlines

Air/HSR Market Share Analysis

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide10

HSR in USA – The Future

The Proposed HSR Lines in the USA

  • South Central, San Antonio – DFW – Tulsa/Little Rock
  • Gulf Coast: Houston – New Orleans – Southeast (Atlanta & eastern seaboard)
  • California Corridors,
  • Florida: Tampa – Orlando – Miami,
  • Northeast Region,
  • Chicago Hub: Detroit – Chicago, Kansas City – St. Louis – Chicago
  • Southeast,
  • Pacific Northwest

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide11

HSR in Texas: Current Status

  • Many Competing Voices
    • Texas High Speed Rail Corporation (Texas T-bone)
    • Texas Oklahoma Passenger Rail Study (TOPRS)
  • Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line)
  • Regional Issues:
    • NCTCOG
    • Commission for High-Speed Rail in the Dallas/Fort Worth Region
    • Tarrant vs. Dallas County

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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HSR in Texas: Current Status

  • Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line)
    • FRA and TxDOT Lead agencies for EIS
    • Downtown Dallas station
    • No public money
    • Subsidiary of Japan Central Railway
  • Regional Issues:
    • HSR in Tarrant County
    • Station in Arlington near entertainment district
    • Coordination and consideration of complete transportation system
    • How to fund?

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide13

HSR in Texas: Current Status

Existing HSR Systems’ Experience: HSR Stations Near Downtown

  • Access: Transportation
    • Bus
    • Rail (urban and commuter)
    • Access: Activities(dense urban cores)
    • Businesses (high value business in core)
    • Entertainment (most in core)
    • Urban housing (high value property)

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide14

HSR in Texas: Current Status

Texas/American Experience

  • Access: Transportation
    • Bus
    • Rail (urban and commuter)
    • Automobile
    • Access: Activities(dispersed)
    • Businesses (multiple centers)
    • Entertainment
    • Housing (suburban)

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide15

HSR in Texas: Current Status

Note:

Travel Times do not include station dwell times

Any origin to destination service does not have intermediate stops

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide16

HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV

Today, France has approximately 1,000 miles of HSR lines

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide17

HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV

The impact of the TGV on airlines in France

Air/HSR Market Share Analysis

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide18

HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership

  • Based on international and US(Acela Express) experience
    • HSIPR can get 80% - 90% of the Air/HSIPR market share when travel time is up to 2 hours
    • HSIPR can get 50% - 80% of the Air/HSIPR market share when travel time is up to 3.5 hours
    • As the service is introduced, the HSIPR can expect to capture between 60 and 85 percent of existing airline ridership after five years of operation
  • The ridership becomes sensitive to the location of the station

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership

Ridership (Passengers/Year)

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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A Unique Opportunity

  • Access = Economic Opportunity
  • Regional air profitability is limited
  • Rail replaces regional air service and creates economic and development opportunities outside the major urban areas
    • Integrated transportation system

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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A Unique Opportunity

European Experience: HSR Stations Near Airports

  • Airlines are offering combined air and rail ticketing
  • Rail passengers have expedited check in to airport terminals
  • HSR Airport to Airport Connections

Source: Raileurope.com

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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A Unique Opportunity

AIRail Station Frankfurt Airport

Terminal 1 Airport

AIRail HSR Station

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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A Unique Opportunity

  • Ticketing Benefits
    • Some airlines like Lufthansa and Air France offer online booking for combined flight and HSR train
      • Access to destinations beyond the arrival airport.
  • Other Benefits:
    • Replace air trips
      • Lower environmental impact
      • Similar safety
    • New stations = economic development
    • Access to smaller urban areas (Waco, College Station, Temple/Belton)
      • Less frequent service
      • Each stop adds dwell time and lost time

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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HSR in Texas – The Future

The Texas HSR and Higher Speed Rail Network and Airlines:

A Cooperative Approach

On short-haul routes, the HSR may be a substitute for “feeder” flights operated by regional airlines

Cooperation agreements between HSR operator and airlines may produce benefits for:

Passengers

Major Airlines

HSR Operator

  • Relatively convenient service,
  • Cheaper fares for business journeys
  • Dismiss less profitable routes,
  • Maintain an extensive regional network
  • Increase ridership and revenues

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide25

HSR in Texas – The Future

New Strategies to Establish a Cooperative Approach

Between HSRs and Airlines

HSR as part of the overall wider transportation network – that includes airports and airlines

  • An integrated HSR – Airlines system would:
  • Improve performance
  • Provide passengers with better service
  • Increase HSR ridership and revenues
  • Reduce expenses or losses for airlines
  • Operating strategies:
  • Code sharing on select HSR routes
  • Potential integration of airlines check-in and baggage handling at HSR stations
  • Airlines operating HSTs to diversify investments

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

A. Massidda

S. Mattingly

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

slide26

Challenges

  • Optimal placement of rail stations a challenge
    • Placement of near other transportation modes provide access
    • Population catchment
    • Activity catchment
  • Urban mileage expensive
  • Activities are dispersed
  • Possible land use issues
  • Integration with existing transportation system (i.e. access)
  • No funding for Dallas – Arlington – Fort Worth extension

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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Challenges

  • Profitability
    • HSR is the most “profitable” type of rail. The TGV high speed rail of France has a 1.3 billion dollar annual profit. (LesEchols.fr, Renaud Honore, 2011)
    • The AMTRAK Acela Express
      • only operationally “profitable” line
      • 45% profit margin (Brookings Institute, 2013)
        • Does not include debt so may be lower (Brookings Institute, 2013)
    • Most HSR is at least capital subsidized
      • Same as other modes
      • Not perceived the same

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?

  • Texas is different than the East Coast and Europe
    • Population
    • Activities
  • HSR not a solution for urban congestion
    • May compete with new managed lane on I-30
    • Managed lane SOV toll vs. fare
    • May void a concessionaire agreement
  • Continuing rural interstate highway congestion

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?

  • Economic development opportunities near stations
  • New transportation system challenges near stations to provide an adequate and integrated system
  • Not the “public transit” answer to intercity travel due to high cost
  • A political solution to extending HSR beyond Texas Central Rail initial investment
    • Public money spent on expensive to construct track
    • Winners and missed opportunities

S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

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