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Space Weather Forecast With HMI Magnetograms: Proposed data products. Yang Liu, and HMI Team. Proposed data products with HMI magnetograms. Data products; Model products; Indices from data and modelings. Data products. Full disk magnetograms;

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proposed data products with hmi magnetograms
Proposed data products with HMI magnetograms.
  • Data products;
  • Model products;
  • Indices from data and modelings.
data products
Data products
  • Full disk magnetograms;
    • Line-of-sight magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 45 sec).
    • Vector magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 12 minutes).
    • Movie of line-of-sight magnetograms – 12 day history, update at TBD.
  • Active region patches;
    • Vector magnetograms on patches – cadence TBD.
    • Line-of-sight magnetograms on patches –cadence TBD.
    • Movie of line-of-sight for each patch – cadence TBD.
  • Synoptic maps.
    • Synchronic frame of radial field – update each 96 minutes (?).
model products
Model products
  • Coronal field models – cadence TBD;
    • Global – PFSS, Hybrid, MHD.
    • Local – Potential field, NLFFF, MHD.
    • Field lines, source surface maps, MHD quantities, …
  • Magnetic field global harmonic coefficients;
  • Open field footpoints – coronal holes;
  • Horizontal flow from FLCT;
  • Velocity data from DAVE4VM/ILCT;
  • 1 AU predictions – solar wind speed, field polarity, field strength, …, from PFSS, MHD, …
proposed parameters likely related with the space weather forecast
Proposed parameters (likely related with the space weather forecast)
  • Solar active regions.
    • Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, separation.
  • Solar flares.
    • Indices.
  • Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions);
    • Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic neutral lines.
  • CMEs’ speed.
    • Reconnection flux and background field configuration.
  • Orientation of magnetic cloud.
    • Direction of heliospheric current sheet.
  • Interplanetary magnetic field.
    • Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling.
  • Solar wind speed.
basic parameters for active regions
Basic parameters for active regions
  • Total unsigned flux: describe the size of an active region (Fisher et al. 1998), and related with potential field energy;
  • Net flux: might indicate how much the large scale flux involved in a region. CMEs are believed to be related with large scale fields.
basic parameters for active regions cont
Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)
  • Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is.
  • Separation: indicate how compact an active region is.

From Fisher (2000)

basic parameters for active regions cont1
Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)
  • Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is.

Bipolar magnetic field regions (Tian et al. 2002)

Flare-productive ARs (Tian et al. 2003)

basic parameters for active regions cont2
Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)
  • Separation: indicate how compact an active region is.

Wang & Sheeley (1989)

indices for flare prediction
Indices for flare prediction
  • Hagyard (1987), Wang et al. (1994) (with vector magnetic field data): Magnetic shear along the neutral lines.
  • Falconer et al. (2002, 2005, 2006, …) (with vector field and line-of-sight field data): magnetic neutral line.
  • Leka et al. (2003a,b; 2007; …), Barnes et al. (2006; 2008; …) (vector magnetic field data): tens of indexes explored.
  • Schrijver (2005; 2007; …) (line-of-sight magnetograms): field structure away from potential field; unsigned flux along neutral line with strong field and high gradient.
  • Georgolis/LaBonte (2006; 2007; …) (vector magnetic field): helicity.
  • Welsch et al (2009) (line-of-sight magnetograms): with information of flows, evolution …
  • Many others, such as Jing et al. (2006); Cui et al. (2006; 2007); Guo et al (2006) …
  • Systematic study is needed for seeking for index or indices to be effectively used for forecast.
flares or flares cmes failed ejective
Flares or flares/CMEs: failed, ejective
  • Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Simulation :see Torok & Kliem 2005; Fan & Gibson 2007).

Courtesy: Kliem & Torok

flares or flares cmes failed ejective1
Flares or flares/CMEs: failed, ejective
  • Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Observation).
cmes speed
CMEs’ speed
  • Reconnection flux, and background field configuration.

Qiu & Yurchyshyn (2005)

Type 3

Type 2

Type 1

orientation of magnetic cloud
Orientation of magnetic cloud
  • Agreement between the directions of the heliospheric current sheet and the magnetic cloud (see, Zhao & Hoeksema 1998; Yurchyshyn 2008; Yurchyshyn & Tripathi 2009).

Yurchyshyn 2008

interplanetary magnetic field and solar mean field
Interplanetary magnetic field and solar mean field
  • Correlation between solar mean field and interplanetary magnetic field (see, e.g. Kotov et al. 2002).

Courtesy: Xuepu Zhao.

solar wind speed
Solar wind speed
  • Wang-Sheeley (or Wang-Sheeley-Arge) model; MHD simualtions.

Courtesy: Xudong Sun

proposed parameters potential to be used for space weather forecast
Proposed parameters (potential to be used for space weather forecast)
  • Solar active regions.
    • Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, separation.
  • Solar flares.
    • Indices (TBD).
  • Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions);
    • Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic neutral lines.
  • CMEs’ speed.
    • Reconnection flux and background field configuration.
  • Orientation of magnetic cloud.
    • Direction of heliospheric current sheet.
  • Interplanetary magnetic field.
    • Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling.
  • Solar wind speed.
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