Space weather forecast with hmi magnetograms proposed data products
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Space Weather Forecast With HMI Magnetograms: Proposed data products. Yang Liu, and HMI Team. Proposed data products with HMI magnetograms. Data products; Model products; Indices from data and modelings. Data products. Full disk magnetograms;

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Space Weather Forecast With HMI Magnetograms: Proposed data products

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Space weather forecast with hmi magnetograms proposed data products

Space Weather Forecast With HMI Magnetograms: Proposed data products

Yang Liu, and HMI Team


Proposed data products with hmi magnetograms

Proposed data products with HMI magnetograms.

  • Data products;

  • Model products;

  • Indices from data and modelings.


Data products

Data products

  • Full disk magnetograms;

    • Line-of-sight magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 45 sec).

    • Vector magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 12 minutes).

    • Movie of line-of-sight magnetograms – 12 day history, update at TBD.

  • Active region patches;

    • Vector magnetograms on patches – cadence TBD.

    • Line-of-sight magnetograms on patches –cadence TBD.

    • Movie of line-of-sight for each patch – cadence TBD.

  • Synoptic maps.

    • Synchronic frame of radial field – update each 96 minutes (?).


Model products

Model products

  • Coronal field models – cadence TBD;

    • Global – PFSS, Hybrid, MHD.

    • Local – Potential field, NLFFF, MHD.

    • Field lines, source surface maps, MHD quantities, …

  • Magnetic field global harmonic coefficients;

  • Open field footpoints – coronal holes;

  • Horizontal flow from FLCT;

  • Velocity data from DAVE4VM/ILCT;

  • 1 AU predictions – solar wind speed, field polarity, field strength, …, from PFSS, MHD, …


Proposed parameters likely related with the space weather forecast

Proposed parameters (likely related with the space weather forecast)

  • Solar active regions.

    • Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, separation.

  • Solar flares.

    • Indices.

  • Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions);

    • Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic neutral lines.

  • CMEs’ speed.

    • Reconnection flux and background field configuration.

  • Orientation of magnetic cloud.

    • Direction of heliospheric current sheet.

  • Interplanetary magnetic field.

    • Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling.

  • Solar wind speed.


Basic parameters for active regions

Basic parameters for active regions

  • Total unsigned flux: describe the size of an active region (Fisher et al. 1998), and related with potential field energy;

  • Net flux: might indicate how much the large scale flux involved in a region. CMEs are believed to be related with large scale fields.


Basic parameters for active regions cont

Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)

  • Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is.

  • Separation: indicate how compact an active region is.

From Fisher (2000)


Basic parameters for active regions cont1

Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)

  • Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is.

Bipolar magnetic field regions (Tian et al. 2002)

Flare-productive ARs (Tian et al. 2003)


Basic parameters for active regions cont2

Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)

  • Separation: indicate how compact an active region is.

Wang & Sheeley (1989)


Basic parameters for active regions cont3

Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)


Indices for flare prediction

Indices for flare prediction

  • Hagyard (1987), Wang et al. (1994) (with vector magnetic field data): Magnetic shear along the neutral lines.

  • Falconer et al. (2002, 2005, 2006, …) (with vector field and line-of-sight field data): magnetic neutral line.

  • Leka et al. (2003a,b; 2007; …), Barnes et al. (2006; 2008; …) (vector magnetic field data): tens of indexes explored.

  • Schrijver (2005; 2007; …) (line-of-sight magnetograms): field structure away from potential field; unsigned flux along neutral line with strong field and high gradient.

  • Georgolis/LaBonte (2006; 2007; …) (vector magnetic field): helicity.

  • Welsch et al (2009) (line-of-sight magnetograms): with information of flows, evolution …

  • Many others, such as Jing et al. (2006); Cui et al. (2006; 2007); Guo et al (2006) …

  • Systematic study is needed for seeking for index or indices to be effectively used for forecast.


Flares or flares cmes failed ejective

Flares or flares/CMEs: failed, ejective

  • Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Simulation :see Torok & Kliem 2005; Fan & Gibson 2007).

Courtesy: Kliem & Torok


Flares or flares cmes failed ejective1

Flares or flares/CMEs: failed, ejective

  • Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Observation).


Cmes speed

CMEs’ speed

  • Reconnection flux, and background field configuration.

Qiu & Yurchyshyn (2005)

Type 3

Type 2

Type 1


Orientation of magnetic cloud

Orientation of magnetic cloud

  • Agreement between the directions of the heliospheric current sheet and the magnetic cloud (see, Zhao & Hoeksema 1998; Yurchyshyn 2008; Yurchyshyn & Tripathi 2009).

Yurchyshyn 2008


Interplanetary magnetic field and solar mean field

Interplanetary magnetic field and solar mean field

  • Correlation between solar mean field and interplanetary magnetic field (see, e.g. Kotov et al. 2002).

Courtesy: Xuepu Zhao.


Solar wind speed

Solar wind speed

  • Wang-Sheeley (or Wang-Sheeley-Arge) model; MHD simualtions.

Courtesy: Xudong Sun


Proposed parameters potential to be used for space weather forecast

Proposed parameters (potential to be used for space weather forecast)

  • Solar active regions.

    • Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, separation.

  • Solar flares.

    • Indices (TBD).

  • Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions);

    • Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic neutral lines.

  • CMEs’ speed.

    • Reconnection flux and background field configuration.

  • Orientation of magnetic cloud.

    • Direction of heliospheric current sheet.

  • Interplanetary magnetic field.

    • Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling.

  • Solar wind speed.


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